jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Reading the WPC Heavy Snow and Icing Disco and then seeing that map was a little interesting. Maybe they are gonna see what the 12z runs come up with since the 00z north shift was so sudden compared to the last set of runs. I mean, we went front prime fronto over southern PA and the northern tier to central and northern PA. They still have time to adjust totals since the storm is over 24 hrs out Hoping to see the models catch up today, not the other way around! Whew! Big runs coming up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 so few pages to read this am. either people are already exhausted from tracking, or the euro wasn't that good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 anywho, Ava's forecast this AM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, mappy said: so few pages to read this am. either people are already exhausted from tracking, or the euro wasn't that good. If 12z continues the trend I'm gonna feel sorry for you mods because I doubt there will be much in the way of maturity shown on here from the usual suspects. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: anywho, Ava's forecast this AM This is literally my forecast I posted overnight, but in map form lol. Glad to see I jive with Ava. She's a very good met for the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: If 12z continues the trend I'm gonna feel sorry for you mods because I doubt there will be much in the way of maturity shown on here from the usual suspects. i have a bunch of work i must get done today, and tracking snow is highly distracting. so hopefully everyone can try and behave themselves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, MillvilleWx said: This is literally my forecast I posted overnight, but in map form lol. Glad to see I jive with Ava. She's a very good met for the area. She's fantastic. Thanks for your write-up, as usual! Appreciate you taking the time between mids (of all shifts!) to drop in and offer your thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, mappy said: i have a bunch of work i must get done today, and tracking snow is highly distracting. so hopefully everyone can try and behave themselves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: i know, i laughed when i typed it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, mappy said: She's fantastic. Thanks for your write-up, as usual! Appreciate you taking the time between mids (of all shifts!) to drop in and offer your thoughts. It's no problem. I love doing this and I can't wait to hopefully come back and actually be sitting in the hot seat at Sterling in my career 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM Nest is toasty -- worst sounding for me, wednesday night. stupid warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 hours ago, Weather Will said: We all need to write Uccellini and get them to speed up the replacement of the NAM.... let’s see, it overstates QPF, it’s too warm, it”s too cold and clueless outside 2 hours. We should not pay the bill for the electricity to run this model!!! But you got to love the 50 inches!!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, mappy said: NAM Nest is toasty -- worst sounding for me, wednesday night. stupid warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, H2O said: Morning! pivotalweather -- they have free soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: Morning! pivotalweather -- they have free soundings Yes they do! I've looked at mine. The Skew T is like yours until 850. Then it makes a sharp right and goes off the scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I am starting to rethink my first flakes hopes after seeing 6z. Might go straight from rain to rain Must be favoring the EURO. I think it could break either way for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, H2O said: Yes they do! I've looked at mine. The Skew T is like yours until 850. Then it makes a sharp right and goes off the scale blah. sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 My bar right now is set at 1-2". If we get more, great. I just want enough snow to cover the grass and ground before... "other" precip appears falling from the sky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, mattie g said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, mappy said: blah. sorry Its totally ok. Acceptance stage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, mattie g said: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GM, I see the NAM is longer calling for 50 inches along the MD/Pa line. All joking aside, to clarify my email last night about the NAMs performance and subsequent NWS remarks which appear to indicate that my point was misconstrued after I signed off. I am a strong advocate of fully funding the dedicated and hard working federal employees at NWS. Especially with the weather more volatile then ever, it is critical that they have adequate resources to meet their mission to protect the public. As a manager in the federal government at another Agency, I can state without question that adequate funding is critical to providing the best possible service to the taxpayers of this country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Must be favoring the EURO. I think it could break either way for us. I guess it could. it was only about 3 days ago we were in the pink. I thought when it adjusts in the next couple days it will still be a nice event. The sharp cutoff at the eastern end of the county and climo should have been my warning flags. there will be others just looking at the upcoming high latitude blocking being modeled. better than 2019 that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, H2O said: South Central PA flopped the nut straight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, mappy said: so few pages to read this am. either people are already exhausted from tracking, or the euro wasn't that good. All of the above. I'm a split between exhausted and acceptance. There comes a point where you know the game is over and you stop fouling and just let the other team run out the clock. I'll check out 12z runs, but it's becoming more clear that not only does it get warm and any front-end snow washes away, but there isn't going to be some amazing deform show on the back end, either. Early in the winter for sure, but so frustrating to see a potential big storm just pulled out from under us, especially when you would have thought there would be some adjustments back to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6z Euro? C’mon people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6z Euro? C’mon people. 00z euro was our last hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 22 minutes ago, yoda said: This meme MUST BE ADDED to the Mid Atlantic Bingo squares 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just observing what is going on right now in my simpleton mind is reason enough to conclude this is a whole lot of nothing here. There is no Arctic airmass. We had clear skies and dews around 20, and DCA barely sniffed freezing last night- busted on the forecast low of 29. High today supposed to be 42, probably hit 45 give or take a degree. The point is there might be a H in Canada, but it not a "Canadian" high. Everyone talks about CAD being under modeled and slow to retreat. Sure- when it is COLD air damning, not COOl air damning. We basically are entering the storm with a seasonal to perhaps slightly below normal airmass and a ton of air from very mild waters ready to flood in. So sure, with low dews we may wet bulb at the start so we see flakes flying at the outset, but this will likely be a very quick changeover and a lot of wet roads. Anything on the backside will be luck. Just observations from nearly half a century in the immediate metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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