yoda Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 452 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 VAZ048-509-151800- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0003.201216T0900Z-201217T0500Z/ Fluvanna-Western Louisa- Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham, Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, and Louisa 452 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Fluvanna and Western Louisa Counties. * WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to midnight EST Wednesday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Every 6z I am looking at look worse I am starting to rethink my first flakes hopes after seeing 6z. Might go straight from rain to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 33 minutes ago, Ruin said: is the latest run a good one or a bad one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8-12 for Baltimore in NWS’s newest map - doesn’t line up with its own WSW. Seems silly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, jayyy said: 8-12 for Baltimore in NWS’s newest map - doesn’t line up with its own WSW. Seems silly I'm a little perplexed at that too actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: 8-12 for Baltimore in NWS’s newest map - doesn’t line up with its own WSW. Seems silly Everything east of the Blue Ridge I would cut in half of the lowest number for Virginia. An dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Heavy Snow and Icing Disco from WPC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I'm a little perplexed at that too actually. It’s plausible if you believe the 12k nam’s thermals... tough model to hug however. Gotta see something big change today for me to believe this map comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It’s almost showtime. Let’s keep this to model discussion only. If you want to complain do it in banter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, jayyy said: It’s plausible if you believe the 12k nam’s thermals... tough model to hug however. Gotta see something big change today for me to believe this map comes to fruition. Reading the WPC Heavy Snow and Icing Disco and then seeing that map was a little interesting. Maybe they are gonna see what the 12z runs come up with since the 00z north shift was so sudden compared to the last set of runs. I mean, we went front prime fronto over southern PA and the northern tier to central and northern PA. They still have time to adjust totals since the storm is over 24 hrs out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Reading the WPC Heavy Snow and Icing Disco and then seeing that map was a little interesting. Maybe they are gonna see what the 12z runs come up with since the 00z north shift was so sudden compared to the last set of runs. I mean, we went front prime fronto over southern PA and the northern tier to central and northern PA. They still have time to adjust totals since the storm is over 24 hrs out Hoping to see the models catch up today, not the other way around! Whew! Big runs coming up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 so few pages to read this am. either people are already exhausted from tracking, or the euro wasn't that good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 anywho, Ava's forecast this AM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, mappy said: so few pages to read this am. either people are already exhausted from tracking, or the euro wasn't that good. If 12z continues the trend I'm gonna feel sorry for you mods because I doubt there will be much in the way of maturity shown on here from the usual suspects. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: anywho, Ava's forecast this AM This is literally my forecast I posted overnight, but in map form lol. Glad to see I jive with Ava. She's a very good met for the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: If 12z continues the trend I'm gonna feel sorry for you mods because I doubt there will be much in the way of maturity shown on here from the usual suspects. i have a bunch of work i must get done today, and tracking snow is highly distracting. so hopefully everyone can try and behave themselves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, MillvilleWx said: This is literally my forecast I posted overnight, but in map form lol. Glad to see I jive with Ava. She's a very good met for the area. She's fantastic. Thanks for your write-up, as usual! Appreciate you taking the time between mids (of all shifts!) to drop in and offer your thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, mappy said: i have a bunch of work i must get done today, and tracking snow is highly distracting. so hopefully everyone can try and behave themselves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: i know, i laughed when i typed it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, mappy said: She's fantastic. Thanks for your write-up, as usual! Appreciate you taking the time between mids (of all shifts!) to drop in and offer your thoughts. It's no problem. I love doing this and I can't wait to hopefully come back and actually be sitting in the hot seat at Sterling in my career 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM Nest is toasty -- worst sounding for me, wednesday night. stupid warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 hours ago, Weather Will said: We all need to write Uccellini and get them to speed up the replacement of the NAM.... let’s see, it overstates QPF, it’s too warm, it”s too cold and clueless outside 2 hours. We should not pay the bill for the electricity to run this model!!! But you got to love the 50 inches!!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, mappy said: NAM Nest is toasty -- worst sounding for me, wednesday night. stupid warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, H2O said: Morning! pivotalweather -- they have free soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: Morning! pivotalweather -- they have free soundings Yes they do! I've looked at mine. The Skew T is like yours until 850. Then it makes a sharp right and goes off the scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I am starting to rethink my first flakes hopes after seeing 6z. Might go straight from rain to rain Must be favoring the EURO. I think it could break either way for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, H2O said: Yes they do! I've looked at mine. The Skew T is like yours until 850. Then it makes a sharp right and goes off the scale blah. sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 My bar right now is set at 1-2". If we get more, great. I just want enough snow to cover the grass and ground before... "other" precip appears falling from the sky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, mattie g said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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