MountainGeek Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Jebman said: I dont mean to be an overexcited snow weenie here, but I just read that Prince William County in Virginia is under a Winter Storm Watch for MORE than 5 inches of snow! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-----HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If that verifies will you come teach us how to shovel snow? No one remembers how to shovel anymore..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 32 minutes ago, mappy said: Phineas only has one eye though It's my trained eye, thankfully. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 For reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 17 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Sup with the kink on the 850s there over DC lol It knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NE MD pummeled, but I am not buying any CCB/backlash snows. The models love to show that, but it rarely verifies. Weenies beware buying that stuff. This area is all about front-end snows. That needs to be the focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Jebman said: Mountain Geek - I think you live in the higher elevations. You're probably gonna exceed a foot. Yeah on the BR, around 850ft or so.....I promise to take a Jebwalk in your honor. But I'm kind of bummed if this doesn't pan out for a larger chunk of the subforum.....Dec/Christmas storms are rare and a region-wide mauling would be something nice to end 2020 with..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Rgem and gfs technically ticked the snow line back se a bit. Didn’t check soundings but it was at least better not to see it continue to eat away at the fall line. Hope the euro delivers for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The Canadian is a total beatdown W of 95 for a lot of folks. Track is actually W of GFS (questionable double barrel look), but much better thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: For reference Changes likely by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Yeah on the BR, around 850ft or so.....I promise to take a Jebwalk in your honor. But I'm kind of bummed if this doesn't pan out for a larger chunk of the subforum.....Dec/Christmas storms are rare and a region-wide mauling would be something nice to end 2020 with..... You're gonna get totally SHELLACKED by heavy snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: The Canadian is a total beatdown W of 95 for a lot of folks. Track is actually W of GFS (questionable double barrel look), but much better thermal profiles. Only out to 24h on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 man, this is something. I guess I'd lean GFS here... will be interesting to see what it looks like 8pm tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Can a met or someone smarter than me explain what the hell happened during this 6 hour period? 48 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Better than 12z? Seems like it but can’t recall. 540 seems better with good returns overhead dc/md line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Only out to 24h on TT Looking at SV maps, which are posted here above it looks like. Surface temps are also chilly. GFS thermals are like 5-7 degrees warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: man, this is something. I guess I'd lean GFS here... will be interesting to see what it looks like 8pm tomorrow. I feel like the Gem is always colder. Canadians are like “ayy, what’s a couple degrees, jee golly” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, PivotPoint said: I feel like the Gem is always colder. Canadians are like “ayy, what’s a couple degrees, jee golly” I think somewhere in between. The GFS is quite a bit warmer at the surface pretty much compared to all other models! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I’d lean mesoscale models for thermals at this point. I hope Canadian is right for the cities/close in burbs but I wouldn’t put my stock, if any, in the temp depictions. Someone smarter than me can weigh in though... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: I feel like the Gem is always colder. Canadians are like “ayy, what’s a couple degrees, jee golly” yeah, it takes DCA down to 24 tonight. I'd be skeptical. That said, quite the difference in guidance. I know I'd lean towards being hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Looking at SV maps, which are posted here above it looks like. Surface temps are also chilly. GFS thermals are like 5-7 degrees warmer. Yea but those precip plots are “previous 6 hours” and the temps are at the end of the period as temps crash on the back. Need to see the temps at 48hrs to know if it’s better or your seeing it AFTER the warm surge. Would imply at least some snow on the back but how much hard to say without that info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: whats going on here lol The high at this point is doing what it can, below zero at Canadian border. Back to snow 6-7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Changes likely by morning. Understood, from your earlier statements I figured that was a foregone conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 For what. It’s worth hrdps starts out hot and heavy, but most area loses 540 off the bat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: Understood, from your earlier statements I figured that was a foregone conclusion. Not my office anymore, but gut feeling is they’ll be coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: yeah, it takes DCA down to 24 tonight. I'd be skeptical. That said, quite the difference in guidance. I know I'd lean towards being hurt. yeah our temp hasn't budged basically since sundown (39/40). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Next panels even better but we might start mixing here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I suppose it's not shocking that the HDRPS is cold on the surface. Unlike the CMC though, the HDRPS only drops DCA to 27/28 tonight (the actual forecasted low). Keeps DCA below zero till the end of its run (48) tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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