AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS at 36 has a little better CAD this run. First flakes out here at 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: GFS at 36 has a little better CAD this run. I actually disagree with this, looks about the same or ever so slightly less modeled on 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, ovechkin said: Thanks. Maybe I will. Will try to bring good luck. We need everything to go right in every storm yet PHL just 120 miles away gets a foot when someone sneezes. Only holding out hope bc we have seen where changeovers don’t happen as modeled. 2/25/07 was supposed to switch over, 2/10/10 even was supposed to. Obviously much different set ups, airmasses and times of year, but predicting 850 and 925 marches can be tricky. That said, anything white on the ground Thursday morning inside the beltway would be a win. PHL recorded .3 inches of snow last year FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS 2m temps got warmer. Gonna do the weenie thing and toss it for the colder mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS is a degree warmer everywhere through 42-48. EDIT to say it's really hard to buy the GFS. 850's are cold as modeled (colder than some of the other models), but the surface is just a torch for many in the metros. Not really how any other models are showing the evolution. Weaker QPF might be the cause for the warmer scheme overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, mappy said: The real phineas lost his eye when the rod went through the eye socket after entering under his jaw I see I need to brush up on that literature...not familiar, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Sup with the kink on the 850s there over DC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NE MD is gonna loooove this run though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I know everyone is analyzing a stronger CAD with each model cycle, but it really is not going to matter. This is not a true arctic airmass and the cold air being dammed in is marginal at best. Source is not deep. Hence we hold on to the front end thump then the shallow cold rapidly erodes. This is why we are seeing such fast changeovers today. Upper level low also not closed and is weakening as it approaches our latitude. That isn’t favorable for the column either. It’s a tough storm for our area outside the favored zones, even some of these areas north of I-70 into southern PA unfortunately will change to sleet for a while. December modified cold airmass not ideal. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 One positive from the GFS is the SFC low track does look to have moved to the east from 18z a few miles. Nothing crazy but certainly noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: NE MD is gonna loooove this run though. Congrats, Philly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Something weird happens between 48 and 54. Its like the far east LP becomes dominate and that completely kills our precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 With the GFS thermals being what they are, I'll take the GFS and its track about 30-40 miles E/SE of last run. The evolution as a whole is a bit different than the Euro & even NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Gfs says dc and close in don’t drop below freezing at any point before or after the storm. It has the UHI in full affect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Once again, in Germantown, it looks like I'll be somewhere between 1" and 13" lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Track of the surface low also not necessarily the most important factor. Classic snow events for the Mid Atlantic need a strengthening upper low closing off , deepening coming near or just south of our area. This is a progressive vigorous punch and not much phasing for our area, best dynamics go north in the CCB. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The snow axis on the GFS has changed from NE/SW to E/W over the past few runs... interesting development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Track of the surface low also not necessarily the most important factor. Classic snow events for the Mid Atlantic need a strengthening upper low closing off , deepening coming near or just south of our area. This is a progressive vigorous punch and not much phasing for our area, best dynamics go north in the CCB. What is your predicted total snowfall for Frederick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: What is your predicted total snowfall for Frederick? I think Frederick MD will see solid warning level snow. 5-8 on the front end thump before sleet transition, maybe another 2-4 on the transition back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: I think Frederick MD will see solid warning level snow. 5-8 on the front end thump before sleet transition, maybe another 2-4 on the transition back to snow. If you somehow avoid the sleet transition I think you can see 12+. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: NE MD is gonna loooove this run though. I know DC hates this (and I truly feel ya), but if that were to verify, the HoCo crew I’m sure would be more than happy. Will it? Who the hell knows, but I’ll believe it more if the Euro backs it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I dont mean to be an overexcited snow weenie here, but I just read that Prince William County in Virginia is under a Winter Storm Watch for MORE than 5 inches of snow! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-----HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Well that was not a good model run to sleep on! DANGIT!!!!!!! So many things did not go our way! The KEY TELLTALE should have been that we were in the jackpot too early! So many times things shift north.. and we need that cushion. The 50/50 and the high location as well as the cold air source were just all bad.. including low placement! I do hope many get pummeled ! We know where that is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Jebman said: I dont mean to be an overexcited snow weenie here, but I just read that Prince William County in Virginia is under a Winter Storm Watch for MORE than 5 inches of snow! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-----HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That’ll get replaced with a heat advisory after they see the GFS 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Mountain Geek - I think you live in the higher elevations. You're probably gonna exceed a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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