ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Track of the surface low also not necessarily the most important factor. Classic snow events for the Mid Atlantic need a strengthening upper low closing off , deepening coming near or just south of our area. This is a progressive vigorous punch and not much phasing for our area, best dynamics go north in the CCB. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The snow axis on the GFS has changed from NE/SW to E/W over the past few runs... interesting development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Track of the surface low also not necessarily the most important factor. Classic snow events for the Mid Atlantic need a strengthening upper low closing off , deepening coming near or just south of our area. This is a progressive vigorous punch and not much phasing for our area, best dynamics go north in the CCB. What is your predicted total snowfall for Frederick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: What is your predicted total snowfall for Frederick? I think Frederick MD will see solid warning level snow. 5-8 on the front end thump before sleet transition, maybe another 2-4 on the transition back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: I think Frederick MD will see solid warning level snow. 5-8 on the front end thump before sleet transition, maybe another 2-4 on the transition back to snow. If you somehow avoid the sleet transition I think you can see 12+. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: NE MD is gonna loooove this run though. I know DC hates this (and I truly feel ya), but if that were to verify, the HoCo crew I’m sure would be more than happy. Will it? Who the hell knows, but I’ll believe it more if the Euro backs it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I dont mean to be an overexcited snow weenie here, but I just read that Prince William County in Virginia is under a Winter Storm Watch for MORE than 5 inches of snow! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-----HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Well that was not a good model run to sleep on! DANGIT!!!!!!! So many things did not go our way! The KEY TELLTALE should have been that we were in the jackpot too early! So many times things shift north.. and we need that cushion. The 50/50 and the high location as well as the cold air source were just all bad.. including low placement! I do hope many get pummeled ! We know where that is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Jebman said: I dont mean to be an overexcited snow weenie here, but I just read that Prince William County in Virginia is under a Winter Storm Watch for MORE than 5 inches of snow! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-----HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That’ll get replaced with a heat advisory after they see the GFS 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Mountain Geek - I think you live in the higher elevations. You're probably gonna exceed a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Jebman said: I dont mean to be an overexcited snow weenie here, but I just read that Prince William County in Virginia is under a Winter Storm Watch for MORE than 5 inches of snow! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-----HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If that verifies will you come teach us how to shovel snow? No one remembers how to shovel anymore..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 32 minutes ago, mappy said: Phineas only has one eye though It's my trained eye, thankfully. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 For reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 17 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Sup with the kink on the 850s there over DC lol It knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NE MD pummeled, but I am not buying any CCB/backlash snows. The models love to show that, but it rarely verifies. Weenies beware buying that stuff. This area is all about front-end snows. That needs to be the focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Jebman said: Mountain Geek - I think you live in the higher elevations. You're probably gonna exceed a foot. Yeah on the BR, around 850ft or so.....I promise to take a Jebwalk in your honor. But I'm kind of bummed if this doesn't pan out for a larger chunk of the subforum.....Dec/Christmas storms are rare and a region-wide mauling would be something nice to end 2020 with..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Rgem and gfs technically ticked the snow line back se a bit. Didn’t check soundings but it was at least better not to see it continue to eat away at the fall line. Hope the euro delivers for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The Canadian is a total beatdown W of 95 for a lot of folks. Track is actually W of GFS (questionable double barrel look), but much better thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: For reference Changes likely by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Yeah on the BR, around 850ft or so.....I promise to take a Jebwalk in your honor. But I'm kind of bummed if this doesn't pan out for a larger chunk of the subforum.....Dec/Christmas storms are rare and a region-wide mauling would be something nice to end 2020 with..... You're gonna get totally SHELLACKED by heavy snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: The Canadian is a total beatdown W of 95 for a lot of folks. Track is actually W of GFS (questionable double barrel look), but much better thermal profiles. Only out to 24h on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 man, this is something. I guess I'd lean GFS here... will be interesting to see what it looks like 8pm tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Can a met or someone smarter than me explain what the hell happened during this 6 hour period? 48 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Better than 12z? Seems like it but can’t recall. 540 seems better with good returns overhead dc/md line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Only out to 24h on TT Looking at SV maps, which are posted here above it looks like. Surface temps are also chilly. GFS thermals are like 5-7 degrees warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: man, this is something. I guess I'd lean GFS here... will be interesting to see what it looks like 8pm tomorrow. I feel like the Gem is always colder. Canadians are like “ayy, what’s a couple degrees, jee golly” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, PivotPoint said: I feel like the Gem is always colder. Canadians are like “ayy, what’s a couple degrees, jee golly” I think somewhere in between. The GFS is quite a bit warmer at the surface pretty much compared to all other models! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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