87storms Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Our best shot for heavy snow outside the favored areas well north and west will come on the front end thump. The CAD unfortunately is marginal and not deep which will erode quickly after 18z. Some areas such as nova, central MD, north of 70 could pick up 3-5 in the first 3-4 hours of the event before changing to sleet then rain. Need the thump. Wrap around CAA never set in stone and it appears the best forcing per the upper low energy will be north of the area in PA/NJ. Lighter snow on the backside for our area, let’s hope we can keep more forcing before everything shifts out. the system reminds me of some of those 90s nor'easters that would drop an easy 2-4/3-5", close schools and then change to a mix/rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: To my untrained eye, RGEM seems colder. Def think the RGEM is a little farther to the east, hence the “colder” temps. Probably not by a lot but we don’t need much to improve things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: To steal a quote from @PhineasC from 2006, "Use the other eye." Phineas only has one eye though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Our best shot for heavy snow outside the favored areas well north and west will come on the front end thump. The CAD unfortunately is marginal and not deep which will erode quickly after 18z. Some areas such as nova, central MD, north of 70 could pick up 3-5 in the first 3-4 hours of the event before changing to sleet then rain. Need the thump. Wrap around CAA never set in stone and it appears the best forcing per the upper low energy will be north of the area in PA/NJ. Lighter snow on the backside for our area, let’s hope we can keep more forcing before everything shifts out. Your honest, sound take is overshadowed by delirious thoughts of 30" with 30 mph winds. Sound guidance is evil on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 RGEM to 3k: “hold my beer. I see your 50” for camp David and give you 48” for N NJ” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 17 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: RGEM moved the snow line 40-50 miles SE for everyone on this run. A better 4-6" thump for those around the DC beltway just referencing TTB with better totals to the N/E. Looked like it was about to be a beatdown and then that weird low popped up on the Eastern Shore and messed it all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: Phineas only has one eye though So when they fixed the hole in his head they accidentally poked his eye out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, osfan24 said: Looked like it was about to be a beatdown and then that weird low popped up on the Eastern Shore and messed it all up. And where is that weird low coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: So when they fixed the hole in his head they accidentally poked his eye out? The real phineas lost his eye when the rod went through the eye socket after entering under his jaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Translation: better CAD 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS at 36 has a little better CAD this run. First flakes out here at 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: GFS at 36 has a little better CAD this run. I actually disagree with this, looks about the same or ever so slightly less modeled on 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, ovechkin said: Thanks. Maybe I will. Will try to bring good luck. We need everything to go right in every storm yet PHL just 120 miles away gets a foot when someone sneezes. Only holding out hope bc we have seen where changeovers don’t happen as modeled. 2/25/07 was supposed to switch over, 2/10/10 even was supposed to. Obviously much different set ups, airmasses and times of year, but predicting 850 and 925 marches can be tricky. That said, anything white on the ground Thursday morning inside the beltway would be a win. PHL recorded .3 inches of snow last year FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS 2m temps got warmer. Gonna do the weenie thing and toss it for the colder mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS is a degree warmer everywhere through 42-48. EDIT to say it's really hard to buy the GFS. 850's are cold as modeled (colder than some of the other models), but the surface is just a torch for many in the metros. Not really how any other models are showing the evolution. Weaker QPF might be the cause for the warmer scheme overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, mappy said: The real phineas lost his eye when the rod went through the eye socket after entering under his jaw I see I need to brush up on that literature...not familiar, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Sup with the kink on the 850s there over DC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NE MD is gonna loooove this run though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I know everyone is analyzing a stronger CAD with each model cycle, but it really is not going to matter. This is not a true arctic airmass and the cold air being dammed in is marginal at best. Source is not deep. Hence we hold on to the front end thump then the shallow cold rapidly erodes. This is why we are seeing such fast changeovers today. Upper level low also not closed and is weakening as it approaches our latitude. That isn’t favorable for the column either. It’s a tough storm for our area outside the favored zones, even some of these areas north of I-70 into southern PA unfortunately will change to sleet for a while. December modified cold airmass not ideal. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 One positive from the GFS is the SFC low track does look to have moved to the east from 18z a few miles. Nothing crazy but certainly noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: NE MD is gonna loooove this run though. Congrats, Philly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Something weird happens between 48 and 54. Its like the far east LP becomes dominate and that completely kills our precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 With the GFS thermals being what they are, I'll take the GFS and its track about 30-40 miles E/SE of last run. The evolution as a whole is a bit different than the Euro & even NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Gfs says dc and close in don’t drop below freezing at any point before or after the storm. It has the UHI in full affect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Once again, in Germantown, it looks like I'll be somewhere between 1" and 13" lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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