Weather Will Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Do you actually have a clue what you are even saying? Yes. The NAM should be replaced before 2024. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Damn.. Cut it by 30 % to 40% and it's still awesome the meso-low @MN Transplant mentioned earlier may not be hurting us on temps too much on its own (though I don't think its helping) but it seemed to portend some crazy gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 whats going on here lol 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: whats going on here lol I don’t know but I like it. Def a CAD signature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Damn.. Cut it by 30 % to 40% and it's still awesome it's an interesting storm regardless of the outcome. that's why i'm not getting too high or low with this, esp in mid-dec without an arctic airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Not trying to piss in anyone's cornflakes. I hope the western crew gets the three feet the NAM is spitting out. I would sell hard on those totals, but maybe it'll work out. Either way, that crew will do better than the Beltway crew for sure. Just beware the last minute east tics while spiking the football... I think we’ll see a slight east tick or two tomorrow/game time. I’m hoping for 1” QPF which every model gives me (with breathing room assuming there’s tics). No one is getting 3’ from this but I wouldn’t be surprised for a very localized report of 20” especially somewhere close to the mixing line in N central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 With those winds and a bit more warm air flooding DC it might be able to be named a tropical system 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Before the gfs runs I’m hoping for some help. This storm as modeled, less in the euro but even there, seems to have a precip field they just unwinds as it strengthens. There’s no consolidation or wrap up. It just spreads out ahead of the low as it goes up the coast. There seems to be no wrapping of the precip. Just seems odd. I’m sure the models aren’t wrong but I just don’t understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Yes. The NAM should be replaced before 2024. Perhaps you should take an introductory course in NWP so that you can actually learn how to interpret a model. Or perhaps read up on some of the material discussed earlier on how to use the NAM at this range. You don’t look at the exact amounts, you watch the trends and the evolution and what the run to run differences/similarities are. Rarely does anyone take one model 100% for qpf, it’s always a blend. Most important information is how the model is handling the moving pieces that will become the weather event. These higher “snowfall” amounts you are seeing do not take into account sleet/ice which can jack up the amounts. What I take from the run is the penetration of the warm air...good front end thump then more expansive mixing and rain then this AM. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: whats going on here lol Nam shows camp David getting 50, personalities clashing with others they aren’t familiar with, people are getting testy 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 RGEM moved the snow line 40-50 miles SE for everyone on this run. A better 4-6" thump for those around the DC beltway just referencing TTB with better totals to the N/E. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 33 minutes ago, mappy said: Yikes at those warm panels on the 12k 12knam isn’t a big event even up here imo. 2-3 before and 1-3 after a flip imo. 3k would be fun though. Good 4-6” front thump then 4-8” back. Go with the 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, mappy said: Nam shows camp David getting 50, personalities clashing with others they aren’t familiar with, people are getting testy yea we need a jan 2016 where the fall line was in Northern Georgia 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: 12knam isn’t a big event even up here imo. 2-3 before and 1-3 after a flip imo. 3k would be fun though. Good 4-6” front thump then 4-8” back. Go with the 3k. Didn’t you say we shouldnt hang our hats on backend snow? The nam is a disaster lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: yea we need a jan 2016 where the fall line was in Northern Georgia I agree. Everyone was so happy. Maybe not you, but everyone else 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, mappy said: Didn’t you say we shouldnt hang our hats on backend snow? The nam is a disaster lol Yeah that’s what I was referring to. There’s no backend because there’s no backside at all. It looks like a warm front behind the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: whats going on here lol I will try to sum up This is a map. It has colors and numbers overlaying a depiction of the states along part of the eastern seaboard. Some of the numbers and colors mean things. For instance, Canada is cold while the Atlantic waters are warm. 2 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That is the craziest NAM run in history. Bar none. Yeah. WTH is up with that donut of localized min sitting directly on top of me? I can throw a rock from my porch and hit 6" more snow in any direction. It literally trolls me. Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah that’s what I was referring to. There’s no backend because there’s no backside at all. It looks like a warm front behind the low. Actually it’s a cold front to push out all the warm 850s. At least from my side of the blue ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah that’s what I was referring to. There’s no backend because there’s no backside at all. It looks like a warm front behind the low. I’d never recover. I’d get a good front end thump, then sleet until the dry slot moved west and I’d be done. Looks fine for psu, but it was horrible imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 12knam isn’t a big event even up here imo. 2-3 before and 1-3 after a flip imo. 3k would be fun though. Good 4-6” front thump then 4-8” back. Go with the 3k. No no, I was told the 00z NAM was awesome and a HECS with 3-4 feet across the "general area" from VA to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, wxtrix said: the WTS? Co-sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Our best shot for heavy snow outside the favored areas well north and west will come on the front end thump. The CAD unfortunately is marginal and not deep which will erode quickly after 18z. Some areas such as nova, central MD, north of 70 could pick up 3-5 in the first 3-4 hours of the event before changing to sleet then rain. Need the thump. Wrap around CAA never set in stone and it appears the best forcing per the upper low energy will be north of the area in PA/NJ. Lighter snow on the backside for our area, let’s hope we can keep more forcing before everything shifts out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Hour 48 3k a very noticable se push before the dbl barrel or meso low stuff occurs. Same can be said for the RGEM as well @ 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Come on man. There is no better entertainment on earth than a NAM rum 36 hours before a storm. Worth every penny. The NAM reflects weather the way you wish it were. No limits! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 To my untrained eye, RGEM seems colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: RGEM moved the snow line 40-50 miles SE for everyone on this run. A better 4-6" thump for those around the DC beltway just referencing TTB with better totals to the N/E. Is the rgem in Millville’s top 5 above hieroglyphics? If so I’m hugging it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: The NAM doesn’t require a supercomputer I’m sure. It can run on a Windows 98 laptop I bet. maybe NCEP's license key to Excel expired so they can't run it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: To my untrained eye, RGEM seems colder. RGEM is a front-end thump kinda run. Hits us a little on the backend too. DCA might barely get to 33. 850s torch for awhile though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: To my untrained eye, RGEM seems colder. To steal a quote from @PhineasC from 2006, "Use the other eye." 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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