MN Transplant Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 The 3km NAM has a QPF problem with upslope over low-to-moderate terrain. Hence the 4”+ at Camp David. Those values can be ignored. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Can’t wait for the flood warning in dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, mappy said: bUt SnOwMaPs! F it my in laws got 50 inches on that run.. I am gonna head up there for a sleep over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3K seemed so close to something good for my location. Rain/sleet gets to me for several hours but almost held off. Adjustments needed don't seem that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The NAM says this isn't even a MA forum storm. It mostly rains on the parts of the forum where 95% of the posters live. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: The 3km NAM has a QPF problem with upslope over low-to-moderate terrain. Hence the 4”+ at Camp David. Those values can be ignored. We do like the 2.5"+ swath across the M/D area and S PA though. Might as well have the NAM unload the best QPF outcomes for us to at least give a chance when the 850's crash back S. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: We do like the 2.5"+ swath across the M/D area and S PA though. Might as well have the NAM unload the best QPF outcomes for us to at least give a chance when the 850's crash back S. Yeah, the low tucking in and stalling before scooting east really plays well for NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 3k NAM, actually if this verifies a lot of people will be happy and roofs will be collapsing in N. MD The NAM just decided that Camp David's elevation is 8,000 feet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 We all need to write Uccellini and get them to speed up the replacement of the NAM.... let’s see, it overstates QPF, it’s too warm, it”s too cold and clueless outside 2 hours. We should not pay the bill for the electricity to run this model!!! But you got to love the 50 inches!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That is the craziest NAM run in history. Bar none. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 3K seemed so close to something good for my location. Rain/sleet gets to me for several hours but almost held off. Adjustments needed don't seem that great. You know we will flip for a bit. Hopefully only for a short time before we flip back for some deform love. It’s going to be fun just watching that line teeter totter around. Your new move spot should help you a touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The NAM says this isn't even a MA forum storm. It mostly rains on the parts of the forum where 95% of the posters live. What are you looking at? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: U said it was going to be a dry storm . Euro and 3k are juicy juicy fruit Feel free to hang your hat on the NAM dude. I'm sure you are getting three feet from this. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40westwx said: What are you looking at? The map on Pivotal looks nothing like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Can’t wait for the flood warning in dc keep moving the low west and we have an outside shot at a tornado watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: U said it was going to be a dry storm . Euro and 3k are juicy juicy fruit Yeah. Nothing historic about 15 inches from southern VA to Boston in mid December according to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: The map on Pivotal looks nothing like that. Pivotal snow maps have a known bias to not be the best. Almost any other site is better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. Nothing historic about 15 inches from southern VA to Boston in mid December according to him. I hope you crush it, dude. But this doesn't look like a HECS anywhere near the cities down here to me. I think 12-15" is a good range for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: That means someone is getting crushed on the fall line then lol Correct. The 3k isn't a bad thing to see. We just want models in our camp showing decent thermals and good QPF. Let's hope that's the trend of the 0z suite. The NAM has nudged SE if we're being honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: We all need to write Uccellini and get them to speed up the replacement of the NAM.... let’s see, it overstates QPF, it’s too warm, it”s too cold and clueless outside 2 hours. We should not pay the bill for the electricity to run this model!!! But you got to love the 50 inches!!! Do you actually have a clue what you are even saying? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Pivotal snow maps have a known bias to not be the best. Almost any other site is better. Weatherbell is not better. It is way too high. Maybe TT is the best free option. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: That's crazy. Look at all those lows near or west of the bay at our latitude. It seems like the way east outliers are now skewing the op. 100%. The OP run is definitely out of whack. I’d push the SLP at least 20-25 miles east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: That means someone is getting crushed on the fall line then lol Since Baltimore city is consistently right on the fall line in the modeling for this one...I'll take it! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Weatherbell is not better. It is way too high. Maybe TT is the best free option. Weatherbell or TT would be preferred then cut everything in half and use that as the high number in your range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Not trying to piss in anyone's cornflakes. I hope the western crew gets the three feet the NAM is spitting out. I would sell hard on those totals, but maybe it'll work out. Either way, that crew will do better than the Beltway crew for sure. Just beware the last minute east tics while spiking the football... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Weatherbell is not better. It is way too high. Maybe TT is the best free option. Sell a house and pay for a model ya cheapskate 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: We all need to write Uccellini and get them to speed up the replacement of the NAM.... let’s see, it overstates QPF, it’s too warm, it”s too cold and clueless outside 2 hours. We should not pay the bill for the electricity to run this model!!! But you got to love the 50 inches!!! Come on man. There is no better entertainment on earth than a NAM rum 36 hours before a storm. Worth every penny. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 0Z RGEM out to 48 hours on this site: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html (be sure to select 0Z 12/15 run) Seems to be colder with a bigger thump in front (4-5 hrs of snow for DC proper), IAD looks to barely stay all frozen through 0Z (based on sfc low position, that should be the max extent of mixing). Should be interesting when full run is in. 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Wow, check out the difference in the positioning of the high between the 3km NAM nest and the HRRR! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2020121500&fh=18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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