AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Holy CCB for PA. Here comes.the 40"+ NAM run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: 10pm heading back SE 925/850 This is more in line with what you'd expect. With any sort of CCB over the area (which the NAM just trended too this run - huge CCB over the M/D and S PA), these temps crash as shown with a 998 E of OC/Lewes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Nice line of thunderstorms in NC on the nest. No comment necessary for the DC area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Snow maps on IWM are a decent improvement at the fall line and slightly SE from 18z. 3" line gets down closer to DC on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 26 minutes ago, Fozz said: The NAM appears to be running on schedule, FWIW. Yeah, it looks like the delays impacted the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Man, if we could just get rid of this double-barreled look on the 3k... 996 at the benchmark man. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 DC Beltway gets a last moment stick save at 3z with the back side whitening the ground on the 3km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Low placement and direction is still odd. Off Charleston, almost due north to just south of NC/VA border, then jumps ENE to just south of Eastern Shore, and resumes heading NNE just barely off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, MN Transplant said: DC Beltway gets a last moment stick save at 3z with the back side whitening the ground on the 3km. Thoughts on the NAM? Truthfully, as NA mentioned, the track has improved. It does show a huge CCB like the Euro has had, just northward into C PA. There are some decent takeaways if we're going to dissect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Man, if we could just get rid of this double-barreled look on the 3k... 996 at the benchmark man. For the smart people here, I'm curious, how often do these double barrel type setups happen with nor'easters? Do they verify the way that the models forecast them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: DC Beltway gets a last moment stick save at 3z with the back side whitening the ground on the 3km. Hopefully as big a save as game 2 in Vegas 2 years ago, but more likely one where it still trickles in and we lose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Man, if we could just get rid of this double-barreled look on the 3k... 996 at the benchmark man. Hang on...is this whole double-barreled thing what's screwing up the track for us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 appears to be a respectable front-end thump for those of us north of the DC Beltway Wednesday afternoon. Temperature profiles have no margin for error, but verbatim, it would be cranking here: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k going bonkers on QPF. 1.8” here, 2.6” Cumberland, and lollis of 4” on the border of Washington and Frederick counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The worst. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k snow maps are pretty Euro esque with huge totals in the favored zones. 15+ 795 in Baltimore W to US 15. There is actually a 50" lolli over Camp David lolol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 10pm heading back SE 925/850/surface....please someone explain why it does not snow when all thes levels are below freezing west of 95? What don’t I understand? There is a warm layer coming in off the Atlantic down your way in DC Baltimore area that warm air layer gets scoured away but barely up here in southern pa by PHL due to the storm hitting the breaks and moving off the coast east bound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: For the smart people here, I'm curious, how often do these double barrel type setups happen with nor'easters? Do they verify the way that the models forecast them? 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hang on...is this whole double-barreled thing what's screwing up the track for us? It looks like the two low situation is due to a meso-low from the NC thunderstorm complex on the 3km NAM. Not sure that it plays a huge role in the thermal profile up by us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 WB 3k NAM, actually if this verifies a lot of people will be happy and roofs will be collapsing in N. MD 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: 3k snow maps are pretty Euro esque with huge totals in the favored zones. 15+ 795 in Baltimore W to US 15. There is actually a 50" lolli over Camp David lolol. The maps are out of control. Harrisonburg with 24” in 6 hours? Come on. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yikes at those warm panels on the 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, MN Transplant said: The maps are out of control. Harrisonburg with 24” in 6 hours? Come on. bUt SnOwMaPs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 3k NAM, actually if this verifies a lot of people will be happy and roofs will be collapsing in N. MD 50?! LMAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The maps are out of control. Harrisonburg with 24” in 6 hours? Come on. Haha I know they're way out to lunch. Decent evolution however and a definite improvement up top and with sfc reflection vs the 18z. We also do have to like it continues to juice up more and more each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The maps are out of control. Harrisonburg with 24” in 6 hours? Come on. the world record is 12" an hour. that's nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Sniffing sleet but I'll take it.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 50" isn't enough. Just sayin'. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Sniffing sleet but I'll take it.. You literally maximize the lift in the DGZ. You'd even super saturate with that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: You literally maximize the lift in the DGZ. You'd even super saturate with that. Agreed, that is a sick sounding for rates in the WAA piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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