December 16/17 Winter Event

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

3hr precip 

 

 

My phone is slowww

That’s really actually pretty to look at.  I know we shouldn’t count on back end snows and all, but it’s nice to think about!

[PhineasC]

@Jmister looks like a good storm for you man!

[caviman2201]

Doesn't the progression of the low look a little odd? At hr54 its at the CBBT, hr55 its 10mi offshore, hr56 its off the southern tip of Chincoteague (all fine so far) but then at hr57 it jumps 25mi NW over Deale, MD, moves due N over Cambridge and then moves NE from there.  Hr53-54 on 18z was significantly SE of Hr59-60 on the 12z before that random jump NW where it 'corrected' to match 12z's SLP track.

[Jmister]

Just now, PhineasC said:

@Jmister looks like a good storm for you man!

Hoping so! I keep following this sub-forum closest because if the models are good for you guys, it's good news for me in the PHL area haha.

Lots of good entertainment here too.

[Chris78]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

It almost looks like it pivots as it starts to pull away. These qpf numbers out of the Euro are right up there with all of our biggest storms. About 36 hours from onset ya'll.

Man we really flirt with sleet all the way out to I 81.

But if the Euro is right and we end up with over 2 inches of qpf in the form of snow it will be historic along the I - 81 corridor.

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Doesn't the progression of the low look a little odd? At hr54 its at the CBBT, hr55 its 10mi offshore, hr56 its off the southern tip of Chincoteague (all fine so far) but then at hr57 it jumps 25mi NW over Deale, MD, moves due N over Cambridge and then moves NE from there.  Hr53-54 on 18z was significantly SE of Hr59-60 on the 12z before that random jump NW where it 'corrected' to match 12z's SLP track.

I thought it was odd as well. There's also the double barrel structure going on as well, though it seems the low closest to the coast is the dominant player.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, Jmister said:

Hoping so! I keep following this sub-forum closest because if the models are good for you guys, it's good news for me in the PHL area haha.

Lots of good entertainment here too.

Can’t you hook @WxUSAF up with some better model data? NASA or wherever he works doesn’t have the good stuff apparently. LOL

[caviman2201]

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I thought it was odd as well. There's also the double barrel structure going on as well, though it seems the low closest to the coast is the dominant player.

If it had continued NE from Hr53-56, it would have been a significant move SE from 12z... maybe thats what the SLP will actually do, but maybe its something someone smarter than me can explain because 12z didn't do that.  It was tucked the whole way up the coast and move more or less due NE.

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Man we really flirt with sleet all the way out to I 81.

But if the Euro is right and we end up with over 2 inches of qpf in the form of snow it will be historic along the I - 81 corridor.

But that is the game you have to play for the heaviest precip. Ride the sleet/Snow line and stay all snow and you are getting hammered. 

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Can’t you hook @WxUSAF up with some better model data? NASA or wherever he works doesn’t have the good stuff apparently. LOL

Where are you for this event?  NH, MD or DE? 

[ravensrule]

15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yes it does. My phone is slow as craptastic crap. Questionable sites giving me viruses 

Are you sure you didn’t borrow my phone?. 

[poolz1]

15 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I thought that said “to finger.”

lol ... just replace "sleet" with your special someone's name and its a typical friday night in dundalk 

[aldie 22]

Doesn't feel like a done deal yet for some reason. 12z tomorrow is my lock in time. 0z tonight makes a move east

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Where are you for this event?  NH, MD or DE? 

Kingsville, MD

[PhineasC]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Doesn't feel like a done deal yet for some reason. 12z tomorrow is my lock in time. 0z tonight makes a move east

You have been on these boards a long time like me and are waiting for the same east move rug pull I am. Way too much western region football spiking going on. LOL at the HECS talk.  

[40westwx]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

WBAL had a pretty good map earlier, at least prior to any 12z/18z changes.  I don't get just ripping the RPM snow map as a forecast. WJZ has this pretty terrible looking maps, but I guess 4-6" around Baltimore is reasonable.

 

I am waiting for Marty Bass in morning.. that guy is maybe the best forecaster in Baltimore History!!!

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

You have been on these boards a long time like me and are waiting for the same east move rug pull I am. Way too much western region football spiking going on. LOL at the HECS talk.  

It’s one of those things being from the west coast of the bay that we had to hope for. Either it had to go SE or the screw job commenced. 

Even being out near McDaniel on the W side of Westminster now, I wouldn’t mind a little nudge SE. if the euro did that, we’d be under 2’ totals. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

I am waiting for Marty Bass in morning.. that guy is maybe the best forecaster in Baltimore History!!!

Lol to that comment re: Marty Bass. Also maybe the worst model map I’ve ever seen from a TV outlet. 

Of course in years past I did make some sick maps with PS. 

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You have been on these boards a long time like me and are waiting for the same east move rug pull I am. Way too much western region football spiking going on. LOL at the HECS talk.  

Right...I mean I guess all of the models sort of look like each other but there is enough differences it seems to me there's a move left...could be more inland...I just think this thing doesn't run up on land. We will find out soon enough I guess...it is only Monday

[AmericanWxFreak]

0c on this mean looks somewhat tasty. Maybe. 

[notvirga!]

 

4 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

I am waiting for Marty Bass in morning.. that guy is maybe the best forecaster in Baltimore History!!!

Speaking of snow maps, WUsa’s latest is pretty sad. Where most have 4-8 or 6-12 they have 1-3. Could be right though, too early to say. 

[HighStakes]

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z still keeps N.Carroll all frozen through the duration.  Deform looks more impressive.  Mixing is a certainty even here but with big qpf and impressive dynamics...big totals still possible 

I liked a couple of things on this run for us. We get down to about 23 early Wednesday morning. That's the coldest since those Euro runs a couple days ago. With clouds moving in and snow breaking out late morning I don't buy that we hit 31-32 by 18z. Hopefully we stay in the 20's. 850's reach 0 and even get a touch above it around 00z so like you said mixing is going to be tough to avoid for a while. The question is for how long. In the March 2017 we were expecting big totals and sleet killed us at the height of the storm. Hopefully we can avoid a prolonged period of sleet and more importantly never change to rain. Once the storm reaches it's max longitude and starts to head out to sea we'll go to straight snow. This Euro run gives us over a half inch of liquid between 6z and 12z Thursday morning. That's the most I've seen during that 6 hour period in quite a few runs. I'd like to see that period continue to get wetter because there shouldn't be any mixing issues by 3z. Even the GFS increased qpf. during this period albeit nowhere near the Euro's amount. My best guess for us as of now is 3-6 before mixing and then say 6-10 on the backside. I'll go in the middle of those totals and say we get a foot. I'm not real convinced we do great up front but that's just a hunch but unlike some here I do like our chances on the second half of the storm. Hopefully precip. comes in hot and heavy. I'll continue to watch how the models handle 850's on the back end for potentially better ratios. If we have any shot at some of those huge totals on previous run we'll need ratios on the backend.

[AmericanWxFreak]

Nvm. This seems like a cutback - not very useful at this point I guess 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Gross. A couple over Balt and a couple headed for Bermuda...

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Gross

That's crazy. Look at all those lows near or west of the bay at our latitude. It seems like the way east outliers are now skewing the op.

[IceCAPS]

8 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

 

Speaking of snow maps, WUsa’s latest is pretty sad. Where most have 4-8 or 6-12 they have 1-3. Could be right though, too early to say. 

That sounds much too much like a 6-hour snow map for my liking. Egregiously conservative...a map with no faith. Nice tag name, by the way! 

[psuhoffman]

52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

What does the WAA snow look like and where does the mix line get to?

This is where our area starts to lose the thermals on the WAA side of the storm.  It's a step back on this part.  The red line is the 850 but like you said at this point the layer is isothermal from 850 down so its pretty much the rain snow line there...you can see what qpf came before the transition...you can estimate how the area did...northern zones hold on 1-2 hours longer...south of DC gets very little snow before going to rain.

1z here is about the worst look for the thermals.  This is the NW extent of both the surface and mid level warmth.  I have estimated the rain and sleet lines here by tracing the 925 and 850  0 lines.  

2 hours later by 3z the temps are crashing and I would estimate everyone NW of 95 is going back to snow or has already.  There are some pockets in the zone of subsidence NW of the developing banding of warmth but if they are between heavy bands at the time your not missing out on much accumulation anyways...point is I think we can assume from 3z on anything that falls is snowfall from 95 NW

SO this last plot is the qpf that falls after that...and this is where the bulk of the snow comes from.  This looks great...I would sign up for it...but I do NOT like living on the deform love as 90% of the storm.  That can disapear real quick if things don't come together right.  But the euro has been remarkably consistent with that in our area so maybe... so there is good and bad here...but again I am nervous relying almost entirely on the back side.  Even up here its only about 3-4" before a flip to sleet...the other 14" if gives me is from the deform.   If that happens GREAT but my rule is usually to treat that as bonus.

Anyways... hope that helped.  

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

That's crazy. Look at all those lows near or west of the bay at our latitude. It seems like the way east outliers are now skewing the op.

This is really cause for pause. If those solutions verify, even our Carroll county crew and PSU are raining and seeing 25% of our forecasted totals. Gfs is OTOH clustered off the eastern shore IIRC.  

[Eskimo Joe]

18z EPS is pretty terrible. There's really no way to put it nicely. Event the Mason-Dixon crew flips and back to I-81. We gotta hope it's wrong.

[PivotPoint]

9 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Gross. A couple over Balt and a couple headed for Bermuda...

The ensembles still have a quite a bit of variance. This track is not set yet for sure. I would still err on the side of a east solution, however there’s is not definitive consensus here. Hope, I guess

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is where our area starts to lose the thermals on the WAA side of the storm.  It's a step back on this part.  The red line is the 850 but like you said at this point the layer is isothermal from 850 down so its pretty much the rain snow line there...you can see what qpf came before the transition...you can estimate how the area did...northern zones hold on 1-2 hours longer...south of DC gets very little snow before going to rain.

1z here is about the worst look for the thermals.  This is the NW extent of both the surface and mid level warmth.  I have estimated the rain and sleet lines here by tracing the 925 and 850  0 lines.  

2 hours later by 3z the temps are crashing and I would estimate everyone NW of 95 is going back to snow or has already.  There are some pockets in the zone of subsidence NW of the developing banding of warmth but if they are between heavy bands at the time your not missing out on much accumulation anyways...point is I think we can assume from 3z on anything that falls is snowfall from 95 NW

SO this last plot is the qpf that falls after that...and this is where the bulk of the snow comes from.  This looks great...I would sign up for it...but I do NOT like living on the deform love as 90% of the storm.  That can disapear real quick if things don't come together right.  But the euro has been remarkably consistent with that in our area so maybe... so there is good and bad here...but again I am nervous relying almost entirely on the back side.  Even up here its only about 3-4" before a flip to sleet...the other 14" if gives me is from the deform.   If that happens GREAT but my rule is usually to treat that as bonus.

Anyways... hope that helped.  

Great explanation. And if your last qpf map is close to accurate and that sounding is snow, then yea, dc can get 2-4”. But to your point it would only pan out this way with a back end solution. That’s a low percentage play usually speaking around here