poolz1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Absolute pummeling for the 81 corridor. My goodness. Agreed...I flirt with sleet but the backend in a better position (insert joke) to linger and add up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: RPM cuz why not Why do I have to squint to see D.C... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That looks like rain or maybe rain/snow mix at best for most of MoCo/HoCo and 495 part of VA at 0z Thursday with those 925 and 850 temps. Hopefully those temps crash back eastward at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Absolute pummeling for the 81 corridor. My goodness. Just got back from Orangetheory and looking at the Euro now. The bullseye is Hancock - Hagerstown down to Winchester....2"+ QPF. 1.4" for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Stinks because there is decent slug of cold air to the nw. If this had developed a little more we could of tapped that. The progressive nature though is not going to allow for heights to crash after the deluge of low level warm air advection. So close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Euro looks good to me, i'm guessing it is the not preferred model these days? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 So close on those 850's. Just a small tick or so, but the models aren't budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: DC hanging on by a thread. No wiggle room at all anymore. Would love if this map came true. The ironic thing about the QPF map above is I am in the jackpot zone with 2.16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: So close on those 850's. Just a small tick or so, but the models aren't budging. The high pressure seemed to be more expansive on this run. Surface looked super bad but it'll be interesting to see how these backend snows trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: That looks like rain or maybe rain/snow mix at best for most of MoCo/HoCo and 495 part of VA at 0z Thursday with those 925 and 850 temps. Hopefully those temps crash back eastward at that point. Adding the surface which looks above freezing in and around dc for the duration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Euro looks good to me, i'm guessing it is the not preferred model these days? Preference depends on location. Not a bad look for Leesburg! Or Carroll county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 @high risk The NAM does sometimes sniff stuff out. It nailed the sleet fest coming from range in March 2017 when all the globals had snow. But the problem is, its wildly inconsistent at range...which is to be expected for a model designed to handle convection and meso scale banding. It is useful in showing thermals better and a better detailed representation of what the storm might look like...but wrt synoptic level general things like track, at range it's hard to take any one run seriously because you don't know what it is onto something or when it is just on something. @BTRWx's Thanks Giving You NEED to stop with those crap snow depth maps. I have no idea how they are calculated but over the years they have been just as garbage as the weenie weatherbell ones. They end up seeming right for the same reason some of the trolls here do...because we fails so often. The models are often wrong and thigns shift worse. And when that happens...it makes a map like those look good. But whenever a storm actually does what the guidance says...those bust low. WAY LOW. I will give you one example just because I looked at the soundings. The NAM one you posted shows Westminster with 3" of positive snow depth. But they get about an inch of QPF with all levels at or below freezing. They get another .8 of QPF that is obviously sleet from the sounding. The surface is below freezing the whole time. Heck even if the whole storm was sleet that would be more than 3"!!! That is just crazy stupid. Now maybe the storm shifts even further NW and then 3" in Westminster isn't a bad idea. If the track actually penetrates inside the mouth of the Potomac...that would be trouble for up here...but a track like that NAM had over the southern Bay in up the eastern Delmarva supports a big snow (with some mixing yes) up here...and the model shows that if you look at the actual soundings and hour by hour plots...then that depth map shows something completely different. THis is not the only time but its a current example of how that map is just WRONG. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, baltosquid said: So close on those 850's. Just a small tick or so, but the models aren't budging. Euro says we’re still in the game in the metros. Gonna be close but not ready to wave the white flag yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 If zwyts isn’t here you know the models look like shit for DC. If Ian shows up, a HECS is imminent. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Impressive qpf modeled up to game time . 2--2.20" ...sweet Yeah. I actually expected it to back down some from the 12Z run. But this run is even better for us. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, baltosquid said: So close on those 850's. Just a small tick or so, but the models aren't budging. Yeah, it's agonizingly close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Adding the surface which looks above freezing in and around dc for the duration. Man look at those 70s off the coast of Carolina. I have a feeling this thing is going to be juiced at the very least. Whoever keeps temps is going to get a qpf walloping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Adding the surface which looks above freezing in and around dc for the duration. Without seeing a sounding, I can't be sure, but that seems a lot like the 18z GFS for the R/S line area. Nearly isothermal profile right around freezing from ~850mb to the surface. Very tiny margin between hours of heavy wet snow and driving rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: If zwyts isn’t here you know the models look like shit for DC. If Ian shows up, a HECS is imminent. I could probably get Ian to stop by and fill in that bingo card spot lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: 18z still keeps N.Carroll all frozen through the duration. Deform looks more impressive. Mixing is a certainty even here but with big qpf ...big totals still possible Can you post some 3hrly surface maps with precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Seemed like a step back with thermals from 12z, but it's just 10 miles here or 10 miles there making the difference it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Without seeing a sounding, I can't be sure, but that seems a lot like the 18z GFS for the R/S line area. Nearly isothermal profile right around freezing from ~850mb to the surface. Very tiny margin between hours of heavy wet snow and driving rain. My goal in mby is to hopefully avoid a driving rainstorm after a few hours of snow. Hopefully during lulls we can hold on to 33-35 and stay “frozen” for most of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 If the low does go due north up the Bay that is too close for comfort. 20- 30 miles east would make a big difference. May be an hour by hour outcast Late Wed. Afternoon/evening. We are only 48 hours out, but we are still 48 hours out....another 30 miles west track no one will be happy east of the Blue Ridge or in Northern MD. 2020 has proven anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Can you post some 3hrly surface maps with precip? He’s an electrician not a met. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Agreed...I flirt with sleet but the backend in a better position (insert joke) to linger and add up. I thought that said “to finger.” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: My goal in mby is to hopefully avoid a driving rainstorm after a few hours of snow. Hopefully during lulls we can hold on to 33-35 and stay “frozen” for most of the storm. Yeah, I was thinking sleet, but 18z GFS and Euro seem more like snow vs. rain. These are really tiny thermal details. I'm pretty much just in "chips fall" time. Seems like we know the basic deal here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Can you post some 3hrly surface maps with precip? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It almost looks like it pivots as it starts to pull away. These qpf numbers out of the Euro are right up there with all of our biggest storms. About 36 hours from onset ya'll. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: 3hr precip My phone is slowww If that 540 does what it shows I might see it end as snow with those rates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That backside CCB does look nice on the 18z euro. Hope it happens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts