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December 16/17 Winter Event


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28 minutes ago, H2O said:

To be fair, even with the GFS holding steady since that awful 18z run the trend for DC folks hasn't been great.  Simply put we need the GFS type deal where the surface low books a hard right turn allowing the ULL to swing under down by NC instead of over us.

If the GFS got some better support from the euro then it would make many feel better.  The 0z to 6z shift for the euro helps.  Will it keep going for the 12z?  YOU better hope so.

You’re correct in your analysis and pessimism wrt big totals 95se. The problem with his post is that he says the exact same things EVERY threat in this range. And because our climo sucks he is right most of the time. But when we eventually do get a hit he is wrong. His posts aren’t useful because they’re a generic canned response. He simply assumes the worst and says why the worst case scenario is likely everytime. Unfortunately that’s usually true. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re correct in your analysis and pessimism wrt big totals 95se. The problem with his post is that he says the exact same things EVERY threat in this range. And because our climo sucks he is right most of the time. But when we eventually do get a hit he is wrong. His posts aren’t useful because they’re a generic canned response. He simply assumes the worst and says why the worst case scenario is likely everytime. Unfortunately that’s usually true. 

It's super easy to be a negative troll in this region. You are usually right, and, when you are wrong, no one comes back to you about it because they are busy enjoying the snow. 

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Just now, jaydreb said:

I’m just looking to see some decent snowfall for an hour or two and have a few inches on the ground at the end of the day.    I think that’s still possible on the west side of the beltway.  

Don't buy into the snow map hype of 15-20 inches. This thing still has a great shot to be a rain to 4-6" of snow kind of deal. A pretty classic event in this region, to be honest.

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Just a few thoughts...

I think the GFS is starting to pick up/respond to the strength of the confluence and HP. The northern extent of the precip has decreased the last couple runs across the op and ensembles. 12z screwed the NE. This is because a 1038hp center is no laughing matter and means business. How many times have we said that CAD often times becomes more pronounced in the final 72hrs. Could the GFS be starting to pick up on this? 

If the 12z op GFS is correct places like BWI will mix but I doubt they lose the surface for the duration. The GFS is a front end thump for the cities followed by sleet/snow mix followed by a classic CCB dump. 

This is something to monitor over the next 24-36hrs. 

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Gem isn’t as awful as some are making it. It’s a LOT colder then the GFS even with a worse track. If you are N or W of DCA it’s a big time thump snow 6-10” with 12” up near PA. Reason it’s not more is it’s hauling A and lost the nice wrap around deform. I NEVER rely on that. Treat it like bonus. That’s why I was meh on last nights 0z euro because ALL the snow was back end. That’s living dangerous. Give me the gem idea of a really cold profile and a guaranteed front end thump then if the back happens we go big...if not we still have a very good snow for December. It’s got less upside but a safer way to roll then the warmer runs that rely on the wrap around to get big totals.  Plus if you take the gem thermal representation and assume a Gfs track and speed it’s a big win.  That option isn’t impossible still. 

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Don't buy into the snow map hype of 15-20 inches. This thing still has a great shot to be a rain to 4-6" of snow kind of deal. A pretty classic event in this region, to be honest.

I got caught up in the huge snowmaps from a day or two ago but now that things are coming into focus I would take 4-6 in a heartbeat.  I would happily take 3” if it comes in a nice burst at the end of the storm.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Gem isn’t as awful as some are making it. It’s a LOT colder then the GFS even with a worse track. If you are N or W of DCA it’s a big time thump snow 6-10” with 12” up near PA. Reason it’s not more is it’s hauling A and lost the nice wrap around deform. I NEVER rely on that. Treat it like bonus. That’s why I was meh on last nights 0z euro because ALL the snow was back end. That’s living dangerous. Give me the gem idea of a really cold profile and a guaranteed front end thump then if the back happens we go big...if not we still have a very good snow for December. It’s got less upside but a safer way to roll then the warmer runs that rely on the wrap around to get big totals.  Plus if you take the gem thermal representation and assume a Gfs track and speed it’s a big win.  That option isn’t impossible still. 

It’s warning criteria snow for a lot of us we haven’t seen warning criteria snow in eons...

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gem isn’t as awful as some are making it. It’s a LOT colder then the GFS even with a worse track. If you are N or W of DCA it’s a big time thump snow 6-10” with 12” up near PA. Reason it’s not more is it’s hauling A and lost the nice wrap around deform. I NEVER rely on that. Treat it like bonus. That’s why I was meh on last nights 0z euro because ALL the snow was back end. That’s living dangerous. Give me the gem idea of a really cold profile and a guaranteed front end thump then if the back happens we go big...if not we still have a very good snow for December. It’s got less upside but a safer way to roll then the warmer runs that rely on the wrap around to get big totals.  Plus if you take the gem thermal representation and assume a Gfs track and speed it’s a big win.  That option isn’t impossible still. 

LOL, yeah I'm going to hope for the GEM thermals combined with a GFS track and speed and we get obliterated.

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