clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The Ukie drops 6-8 inches in six hours west of town. So yes. If you are west of town look at the UKIE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Going to take a wild guess the Euro is not going to be great given the Canadian and especially UKMET runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS > CMC+UKMet, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: GFS > CMC+UKMet, right? Euro will join them shortly. We've seen this act many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Amped said: Ouch This is how we lose in dc metro, quick flip and no CCB. We all know it’s possible, hopefully the king disagrees. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, H2O said: To be fair, even with the GFS holding steady since that awful 18z run the trend for DC folks hasn't been great. Simply put we need the GFS type deal where the surface low books a hard right turn allowing the ULL to swing under down by NC instead of over us. If the GFS got some better support from the euro then it would make many feel better. The 0z to 6z shift for the euro helps. Will it keep going for the 12z? YOU better hope so. You’re correct in your analysis and pessimism wrt big totals 95se. The problem with his post is that he says the exact same things EVERY threat in this range. And because our climo sucks he is right most of the time. But when we eventually do get a hit he is wrong. His posts aren’t useful because they’re a generic canned response. He simply assumes the worst and says why the worst case scenario is likely everytime. Unfortunately that’s usually true. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 That’s the best the UK has looked for Deep Creek so I’m hugging that for now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You’re correct in your analysis and pessimism wrt big totals 95se. The problem with his post is that he says the exact same things EVERY threat in this range. And because our climo sucks he is right most of the time. But when we eventually do get a hit he is wrong. His posts aren’t useful because they’re a generic canned response. He simply assumes the worst and says why the worst case scenario is likely everytime. Unfortunately that’s usually true. It's super easy to be a negative troll in this region. You are usually right, and, when you are wrong, no one comes back to you about it because they are busy enjoying the snow. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I’m just looking to see some decent snowfall for an hour or two and have a few inches on the ground at the end of the day. I think that’s still possible on the west side of the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It's a cliche, but this Euro run is actually really important. It needs to keep trending better and look more like the GFS. Otherwise, this thing might be starting to slip away from us. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: I’m just looking to see some decent snowfall for an hour or two and have a few inches on the ground at the end of the day. I think that’s still possible on the west side of the beltway. Don't buy into the snow map hype of 15-20 inches. This thing still has a great shot to be a rain to 4-6" of snow kind of deal. A pretty classic event in this region, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just a few thoughts... I think the GFS is starting to pick up/respond to the strength of the confluence and HP. The northern extent of the precip has decreased the last couple runs across the op and ensembles. 12z screwed the NE. This is because a 1038hp center is no laughing matter and means business. How many times have we said that CAD often times becomes more pronounced in the final 72hrs. Could the GFS be starting to pick up on this? If the 12z op GFS is correct places like BWI will mix but I doubt they lose the surface for the duration. The GFS is a front end thump for the cities followed by sleet/snow mix followed by a classic CCB dump. This is something to monitor over the next 24-36hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Gem isn’t as awful as some are making it. It’s a LOT colder then the GFS even with a worse track. If you are N or W of DCA it’s a big time thump snow 6-10” with 12” up near PA. Reason it’s not more is it’s hauling A and lost the nice wrap around deform. I NEVER rely on that. Treat it like bonus. That’s why I was meh on last nights 0z euro because ALL the snow was back end. That’s living dangerous. Give me the gem idea of a really cold profile and a guaranteed front end thump then if the back happens we go big...if not we still have a very good snow for December. It’s got less upside but a safer way to roll then the warmer runs that rely on the wrap around to get big totals. Plus if you take the gem thermal representation and assume a Gfs track and speed it’s a big win. That option isn’t impossible still. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Don't buy into the snow map hype of 15-20 inches. This thing still has a great shot to be a rain to 4-6" of snow kind of deal. A pretty classic event in this region, to be honest. I got caught up in the huge snowmaps from a day or two ago but now that things are coming into focus I would take 4-6 in a heartbeat. I would happily take 3” if it comes in a nice burst at the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Gem isn’t as awful as some are making it. It’s a LOT colder then the GFS even with a worse track. If you are N or W of DCA it’s a big time thump snow 6-10” with 12” up near PA. Reason it’s not more is it’s hauling A and lost the nice wrap around deform. I NEVER rely on that. Treat it like bonus. That’s why I was meh on last nights 0z euro because ALL the snow was back end. That’s living dangerous. Give me the gem idea of a really cold profile and a guaranteed front end thump then if the back happens we go big...if not we still have a very good snow for December. It’s got less upside but a safer way to roll then the warmer runs that rely on the wrap around to get big totals. Plus if you take the gem thermal representation and assume a Gfs track and speed it’s a big win. That option isn’t impossible still. It’s warning criteria snow for a lot of us we haven’t seen warning criteria snow in eons... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gem isn’t as awful as some are making it. It’s a LOT colder then the GFS even with a worse track. If you are N or W of DCA it’s a big time thump snow 6-10” with 12” up near PA. Reason it’s not more is it’s hauling A and lost the nice wrap around deform. I NEVER rely on that. Treat it like bonus. That’s why I was meh on last nights 0z euro because ALL the snow was back end. That’s living dangerous. Give me the gem idea of a really cold profile and a guaranteed front end thump then if the back happens we go big...if not we still have a very good snow for December. It’s got less upside but a safer way to roll then the warmer runs that rely on the wrap around to get big totals. Plus if you take the gem thermal representation and assume a Gfs track and speed it’s a big win. That option isn’t impossible still. LOL, yeah I'm going to hope for the GEM thermals combined with a GFS track and speed and we get obliterated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Until Monday's event (rain) is done i do not believe any model has goo handle on this storm , Mother nature will do what it wants. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Weather channel still bullish! 12''+ NYC 12'' + Philadelphia 8-12'' Baltimore 3-5'' D.C. 8-12'' Charlottesville 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Snowchaser said: Weather channel still bullish! 12''+ NYC 12'' + Philadelphia 8-12'' Baltimore 3-5'' D.C. 8-12'' Charlottesville evidently TWC hasn't factored in the 12Z model runs yet... let's see how long before they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Being bullish is better for ratings and ad revenue. Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, benjammin said: Being bullish is better for ratings and ad revenue. Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk true... question is whether being bullish is/will be good for the other "R" (Reputation) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 That right there is failsauce. You can already tell ... xD. The ULL energy is in Kansas when it should be in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Early signs from the euro have the high lagging behind to the west of the last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Incoming Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 50/50 down to 940mb on this run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB EURO wed 4am, tick se with 0c so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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