SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 They forgot to feed the “AmWX Mid Atlantic HH algorithm” into the models for this run. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It isn't even winter yet. Of course some will get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 DC does snag a couple of inches on the backend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, high risk said: Since it seems to be the afternoon for apologies on this board, perhaps one needs to be made to the NAM...... I’ll apologize Wednesday evening as needed and not before 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS is slightly warmer in the mid-levels otherwise there isn’t really a discernible difference from 12z. That being said, won’t do anything to reduce the tension in this thread lol. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2m temps are horrific, but looking back on it previous runs weren't that much better. 850 temps actually improved somehow. edit: to clarify, it's very slight. but NW DC/down to the Mall or so doesn't lose 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: DC does snag a couple of inches on the backend. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think their being harsh but I noticed your not really predicting anything much different then most but it’s the tone. Instead of focusing on a he positives for the parts of the region that get snow you are focused more on the fail aspects. I get crap for that too sometimes. No one likes to hear depressing news. Even if they know it’s true. I agree. Thanks for sharing this. I can see what you are saying for the eastern areas, though I am saying generous snow amounts just well north and west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Gfs has a stronger WAA onset than before with good dendritic growth. I’m right in the R/S line during the evening as depicted with an isothermal profile right at freezing below like 900mb. The snow side of that line cashes in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 With the evolution we see on the GFS, the 850's are actually somewhat cooler than 12z in spots. The 2m temps are just what is modeled so warm. That being said, the Euro and EPS are about 3-4 degrees colder for a couple of the time periods. Could the GFS be running a bit warm at the surface? Weird to see it having colder 850's than some models but torching the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Nope The accumulated snow depth map can be hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I’m sure DC will score some snow on the backend as the low pulls away and 2 inches of 35 degree rain has fallen. Yep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’ll apologize Wednesday evening as needed and not before Fair enough. It could be wrong; I'm just reacting to the folks who said that the NAM showing an inland low track proved that it should be immediately euthanized. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Gfs has a stronger WAA onset than before with good dendritic growth. I’m right in the R/S line during the evening as depicted with an isothermal profile right at freezing below like 900mb. The snow side of that line cashes in. I think one of the reasons the GFS has such warm 2m temps are the rates/precip? Yes the WAA is good on the front (which is certainly what we want vs relying on the backside to score good totals). Low QPF is equating to warmer SFC temps possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 If it makes any of you feel better, at least in NYC the heavy snow is nice for about 10 min after it's done then it is f'ing miserable for days/weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, chris21 said: The accumulated snow depth map can be hit or miss. 10:1 isn't much different in this case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 10:1 isn't much different Kuchera is how we roll around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 What is euro keying in on that gfs is not? Colder temps? Which model typically forecasts temperatures better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs has a stronger WAA onset than before with good dendritic growth. I’m right in the R/S line during the evening as depicted with an isothermal profile right at freezing below like 900mb. The snow side of that line cashes in. It's a crazy close call for us if, ya know, that was the actual real solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I’m sure DC will score some snow on the backend as the low pulls away and 2 inches of 35 degree rain has fallen. Yep. Thats fair. I wont add anything for the climo I dont know. I will just stick with my yard getting buried by every single model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Nope That map isnt right.. you need to show the kuchera one.. it gives you more snow and the more snow the better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs has a stronger WAA onset than before with good dendritic growth. I’m right in the R/S line during the evening as depicted with an isothermal profile right at freezing below like 900mb. The snow side of that line cashes in. Looks like we’ll be straddling that line. Guess all we can do is hope we fall on the snow side and cash in our chips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: That map isnt right.. you need to show the kuchera one.. it gives you more snow and the more snow the better ttb doesn't have kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, high risk said: Fair enough. It could be wrong; I'm just reacting to the folks who said that the NAM showing an inland low track proved that it should be immediately euthanized. Anything that doesn’t give me warning level snow I am tossing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, high risk said: Fair enough. It could be wrong; I'm just reacting to the folks who said that the NAM showing an inland low track proved that it should be immediately euthanized. It’s hard to figure out when a model is just playing into its bias and when it’s on to something. NAM bias is over amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Kiss of Death! LOL! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: It’s hard to figure out when a model is just playing into its bias and when it’s on to something. NAM bias is over amplified. And GFS bias is dry QPF/warm low levels isn’t it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS has the Thursday evening/night light snow stuff as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, DDweatherman said: And GFS bias is dry QPF/warm low levels isn’t it? Not sure about that. It is progressive, particularly at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: GFS is slightly warmer in the mid-levels otherwise there isn’t really a discernible difference from 12z. That being said, won’t do anything to reduce the tension in this thread lol. To reduce the tension...folks can start looking at the medium-long range again? The posts earlier today about the AO oughta soothe some nerves I think it was encouraging! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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