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December 16/17 Winter Event


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6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here.

Again we all appreciate your excellent thoughts but to use the NAM as gospel 48 hours out isn't the best idea. Please keep posting and ignore the background noise. 

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Interesting hr 53 & 54 sounding where the mix line runs right along 95. Attached is the sounding for Baltimore. Small warm nose at the 850/900 level, not terribly difficult to overcome. 

By 54, Baltimore folks could likely be isothermal with good rates and stack up a few inches in the ensuing frames. 

PS This is if we want to analyze the 3k at face value. 

 

nam3km_2020121418_fh54_sounding_39.35N_76.62W.png

nam3km_2020121418_fh53_sounding_39.33N_76.62W.png

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4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here.

That's what happens when you put weenies through a winter like last year's... very hard for some to stay disciplined and accept expert analysis.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Take your ball and go home? I held back on posting this but I distinctly remember the progression here. You once went big on a storm and busted. Ever since you have poor mouthed every chance that we’ve had. And have busted low in nearly every one of those. Now you’re mad because people don’t like it. People might not like me posting this but it’s the truth. 
 

You obviously know more than most. You’re a pro after all. Maybe just give us what you see and why. Lose the absolute certainty of it all. You need to question why you’re getting the responses that you’re getting. 

This is ridiculousness! 

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2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

That's what happens when you put weenies through a winter like last year's... very hard for some to stay disciplined and accept expert analysis.

to be fair, the nam at long range shouldn't be expertly analyzed anyways. 

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10 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here.

Just for your information JI is a real meteorologist. In fact if you put a gun to my head and asked who is better him or Wes i may have to go with JI. 

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Not really. Actually been around here for awhile. Never heard his name mentioned. 

On another note, I had no idea cranky was done tweeting.

forky is a red tagger from NY. very well known on the forums for those who go back a long ways. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

to be fair, the nam at long range shouldn't be expertly analyzed anyways. 

Oh I don't think you actually said anything to really gripe about but I do think overall there's a lot of grumbling from many after last winter's disaster; more what I'm getting at.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:
5 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Again we all appreciate your excellent thoughts but to use the NAM as gospel 48 hours out isn't the best idea. Please keep posting and ignore the background noise. 

It’s not gospel, it’s indicative of the evolution of the pattern. The model is not worthless beyond 48 hours. I happen to work with the hard working employees that spend millions to make these models run year round, that dedicate their lives to making NWP better and people just trash them like it’s a wind up toy. 

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Just now, baltosquid said:

Oh I don't think you actually said anything to really gripe about but I do think overall there's a lot of grumbling from many after last winter's disaster; more what I'm getting at.

No, I don't think anyone said anything worth griping over. Its the NAM.

But I totally get everyone is on edge and wants snow. Last winter was horrible for everyone. Some are a little more testy than others. 

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Anyway, about new data, ICON took a jump East and is now putting the low out of the bay. A bit better but still some heavy rain after the initial snow so far. No backend frames yet. Not significant temperature change at the surface from what I can see, maybe a slight tick warmer. Don't have higher level stuff on TT.

Edit: Nothing on the backend for anyone. Anomalously poor showing for snow in the NW compared to other models today.

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

It’s not gospel, it’s indicative of the evolution of the pattern. The model is not worthless beyond 48 hours. I happen to work with the hard working employees that spend millions to make these models run year round, that dedicate their lives to making NWP better and people just trash them like it’s a wind up toy. 

I may be wrong here but i thought the NAM hasn't been updated since 2017 and is being retired in the next 3 or 4 years. 

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3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Cranky was such a great follow on Twitter. Could make any boring day interesting meteorologically. You ever hear why he’s stopped?

No idea. He was incredibly detailed. What he did had to be crazy time-consuming, so maybe he just stopped because of the time involved when he obviously wasn't making money off of it. Or maybe he got tired of the critics.

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