December 16/17 Winter Event

[baltosquid]

 

Just now, DDweatherman said:

To further show the hefty dynamics at play, check out the h7 frontogen here @ 54 hrs. 

If only it were a bit colder.

[ers-wxman1]

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Thanks for the rundown. We all fully expect that the NAM will verify at this range. Time to grab some rope...

Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here.

[WesternFringe]

17 minutes ago, T. August said:

My IQ always changes after these maps, not sure if it’s a gain or loss.

What does the purple shading denote?  Can't see the legend in that screenshot.

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Thanks for the rundown. We all fully expect that the NAM will verify at this range. Time to grab some rope...

yup. was a nice run for a few days. pack it up weenies. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

3km nam nest results aren't much nicer than the 12km nam.

That’s double what I thought for my house.   Overperformer? 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here.

What is the debate at hand? You're making statements about the 18z NAM in specific. Yes you received a snarky response, but you and I both know its on the edges of the model envelope and we're not going to take it verbatim. If it verifies it would be a big score relative to where the other Op's have things at the moment. 

[PivotPoint]

The only times I have found the nam useful at range is to confirm trends 1-2 runs after the Global’s spin them. Nam 48+ is not a great mode and pinning down main features like the Globals are. Now I have seen the nam not follow a trend for 2-3 runs in a row after globals suggested it. And nam has turned out to be right here and there last I remember was 2017 but can’t recall the event. 
 

Anyhow, nam has played its part perfectly. It’s confirming globals. Just as always, is one to two sets behind.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here.

not sure this is the appropriate response to that, but okay. we all appreciate your thoughts and insight. 

[Yeoman]

15 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

for the mets:  I've been talking offline to Forky and he thinks the models aren’t responding properly to the CAD and that the storm is too far north overall. 

What does spoons have to say?

[T. August]

2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

What does the purple shading denote?  Can't see the legend in that screenshot.

hell if I know

[WinterWxLuvr]

18 minutes ago, lester said:

This may be the worst forecast map I've ever seen

There’s a chance he knows more than you 

[clskinsfan]

21 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said:

LOL

Poor Ji.

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

What does the purple shading denote?  Can't see the legend in that screenshot.

Significant ice is what he's going for.

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

What does spoons have to say?

Get the fork outta here!? 

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here.

Again we all appreciate your excellent thoughts but to use the NAM as gospel 48 hours out isn't the best idea. Please keep posting and ignore the background noise. 

[DDweatherman]

Interesting hr 53 & 54 sounding where the mix line runs right along 95. Attached is the sounding for Baltimore. Small warm nose at the 850/900 level, not terribly difficult to overcome. 

By 54, Baltimore folks could likely be isothermal with good rates and stack up a few inches in the ensuing frames. 

PS This is if we want to analyze the 3k at face value. 

 

[baltosquid]

4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here.

That's what happens when you put weenies through a winter like last year's... very hard for some to stay disciplined and accept expert analysis.

[WEATHER53]

Really wont be able to grasp the effect of the high unti about 3-6 hours pre event then during onset to completion it’s in situation 

[WVclimo]

3k NAM has 2.34" of liquid here.  All snow.  And still snowing at h60.  So, I for one do not characterize this run as a disaster.  

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

you must be a noob.

Not really. Actually been around here for awhile. Never heard his name mentioned. 

On another note, I had no idea cranky was done tweeting.

[ers-wxman1]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Take your ball and go home? I held back on posting this but I distinctly remember the progression here. You once went big on a storm and busted. Ever since you have poor mouthed every chance that we’ve had. And have busted low in nearly every one of those. Now you’re mad because people don’t like it. People might not like me posting this but it’s the truth. 
 

You obviously know more than most. You’re a pro after all. Maybe just give us what you see and why. Lose the absolute certainty of it all. You need to question why you’re getting the responses that you’re getting. 

This is ridiculousness! 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

That's what happens when you put weenies through a winter like last year's... very hard for some to stay disciplined and accept expert analysis.

to be fair, the nam at long range shouldn't be expertly analyzed anyways. 

[ravensrule]

10 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here.

Just for your information JI is a real meteorologist. In fact if you put a gun to my head and asked who is better him or Wes i may have to go with JI. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Not really. Actually been around here for awhile. Never heard his name mentioned. 

On another note, I had no idea cranky was done tweeting.

forky is a red tagger from NY. very well known on the forums for those who go back a long ways. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, mappy said:

forky is a red tagger from NY. very well known on the forums for those who go back a long ways. 

Well known for sure. Just not in the way most want to be known. 

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

to be fair, the nam at long range shouldn't be expertly analyzed anyways. 

Oh I don't think you actually said anything to really gripe about but I do think overall there's a lot of grumbling from many after last winter's disaster; more what I'm getting at.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Not really. Actually been around here for awhile. Never heard his name mentioned. 

On another note, I had no idea cranky was done tweeting.

Cranky was such a great follow on Twitter. Could make any boring day interesting meteorologically. You ever hear why he’s stopped?

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Well known for sure. Just not in the way most want to be known. 

he does seem to know his meteorology at least.  

[ers-wxman1]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

5 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Again we all appreciate your excellent thoughts but to use the NAM as gospel 48 hours out isn't the best idea. Please keep posting and ignore the background noise. 

It’s not gospel, it’s indicative of the evolution of the pattern. The model is not worthless beyond 48 hours. I happen to work with the hard working employees that spend millions to make these models run year round, that dedicate their lives to making NWP better and people just trash them like it’s a wind up toy. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, mappy said:

he does seem to know his meteorology at least.  

Lol. There is no arguing that.