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December 16/17 Winter Event


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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Wanted to point something out when watching the details on the op runs. It’s not just the track if the surface low but also how much of an inverted trough feature there is. 12z euro track was slightly west but it was colder because there was less inverted trough and primary remnants. That trough prolongs and enhances the easterly fetch. We want the coastal to close off a circulation at low and mid levels as quick as possible.  A stronger inverted trough delays that some and kills is with an inside ideal track. 

Bingo. If that coastal pops earlier than forecast we all win.

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

About 18” for everyone with the exception of that strange area missing right over your house

well dang it. oh well. better luck next storm. 

8 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Updated my snow map... cut down on the total on the eastern gradient (mainly DC up I-95 and through southern and central NJ). Increased totals along the Appalachians.

20201216-17_second.png.c35a21d3a397cc764ba84768aa922e29.png

gasp. you took away some of my digital snow! 

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14 minutes ago, H2O said:

If @MillvilleWx could come in here and sweet talk me to let me know things will be ok in a 300 word essay I'd feel better.  Be specific for the DCA area as in for the airport because thats close enough to where I live.  

 

If I don't see a summary then I know I'm out of the game like the Jets are out of the running for the Super Bowl

What I told you the Jets should be relegated? How does that fair on expectations? :lol:

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

well dang it. oh well. better luck next storm. 

gasp. you took away some of my digital snow! 

"I am altering the gradient. Pray I don't alter it any further." :devilsmiley:

It was difficult because I also lowered my IMBY 6-8" forecast to 4-6", and I was contending with pulling the higher amounts even a tick further north than that. 12z EPS saved it for now, hehe.

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Just now, Ellinwood said:

"I am altering the gradient. Pray I don't alter it any further." :devilsmiley:

It was difficult because I also lowered my IMBY 6-8" forecast to 4-6", and I was contending with pulling the higher amounts even a tick further north than that. 12z EPS saved it for now, hehe.

i kid of course. thanks for taking the time to make a map! 

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34 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I absolutely have since the beginning and i am well aware of it. That's why i was asking him. Either way i appreciate his insight, i just wish it would be said with less certainty. 

I was just thinking about this the other day.  What IS the very beginning?  I've been in here for ~ 8-9 years (mostly observing/learning) and for sharing obs/photos.  

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Just now, WeatherShak said:

I was just thinking about this the other day.  What IS the very beginning?  I've been in here for ~ 8-9 years (mostly observing/learning) and for sharing obs/photos.  

This board started in 2009. Eastern preceded it and i joined it in 2004. I'm not sure when Eastern actually started. 

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31 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ok city folks.  Our goal is 2 to 4.  Just shift your expectations and things will be a lot better going forward.  Accept your climo and reality.   We are going to see snow in the air and we're tracking something in December.   Lemonade lemons etc etc. 

 

Lease.jpg

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