Amped Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Make your own conclusions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I think the heavy R/S line may end up being over D.C. where D.C will get around 10'' or less than 3''. My money is on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I guarantee you places west of the fall line are getting WAY over 10-1 in that band. 16 minutes ago, LP08 said: It’s tiny but I’d think with rates we could at least fight off rain. If in a heavy band that’s likely very wet (very low ratio) bombs. It helps that the lift is crazy in the DGZ. 31 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said: I would enjoy a nice peaceful snow and I am rooting for it to occur , prior years I would be stressed over every model run.... but after this past Sept its just not the same.... lost a child.. I am so sorry. As a parent the crippling fear from just the thought of that is agonizing. There are no words. I truly hope you find some peace and get through your pain. 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: I also liked seeing GFS bump up QPF totals for the mountains and starting to clue in some upslope as the coastal pulls away. The more I dig into the GFS and GEFS the more I like it. Those in trouble know it. There isn’t an Arctic airmass in place, it’s mid Dec, and the SST are scorched. SE of 95 is gonna be a struggle. But for everyone along and NW of 95 this run implies a lot of fun. Perfect placement of the surface mid and upper level features. fgen. Crazy lift in the dgz. Everyone except Ji would be satisfied imo. Even in the cities I think they do pretty good if...big if...this run is representative of the reality. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Snow droughts always end with a bang so DC looks to get 12-16 1 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Amped said: heh. literally the opposite of the GEFS GIF I just posted. Fun times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: heh. literally the opposite of the GEFS GIF I just posted. Fun times. It’s fine. The GFS is a better model than the CMC, right? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GGEM does keep ticking west but it’s also hauling ass. Has a really nice front end thump but that’s most of the show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, bridgie04 said: So very, very sorry for your loss and hope you and your family are doing as well as could ever be expected Thank you for the kind words , much appreciated....it was unexpected & with the holidays its difficult to say the least.. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS is out on a limb having heaviest snowfall over us. Every other model now shows it NE PA to BOS. I'm taking a page from DTs playbook and tossing the GFS. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12z CMC has a more prominent primary than in recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 19 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: I think the heavy R/S line may end up being over D.C. where D.C will get around 10'' or less than 3''. My money is on the GFS. I’ll take that bet . GFS will most likely play catch up the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS is out on a limb having heaviest snowfall over us. Every other model now shows it NE PA to BOS. I'm taking a page from DTs playbook and tossing the GFS. Keep us posted 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Keep us posted He's already got his canned response for every event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Seems fairly clear to me the OH valley low is no longer any issue. We’ve solved that riddle. What’s left is the precise surface low track. And it seems to me that all these seeming big changes are just due to subtle differences in where the surface low gets captured by the upper level energy and how offshore convection torques things. The convection is going to remain a wildcard. The upper level part may get nailed down a bit more, but these aren’t radical changes by any means for a ~72hr forecast. Of course it makes a huge difference in sensible wx outcome to most of us. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 That 72 hr map on the UKIE is classic. Nice 50/50. 1038 over the top, And a LP on the gulf coast. I would love to see an 84 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said: I think it’s pretty clear that 95 and metro areas will struggle with mixing and snow accumulating until about 00z, but it also looks clear that we all get destroyed by the CCB all the way to the bay. So 02z or so until about 8z should be pretty damn fun. I’m always untrusting I’d wrap around ccb. Feel like this is very easy for models to over do at range. We would need to explain why this either a) slows down and deepens quickly, or why ccb looks so good on just gfs. I wouldnt trust wrap around unless I see some meals closer to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Keep us posted To be fair, even with the GFS holding steady since that awful 18z run the trend for DC folks hasn't been great. Simply put we need the GFS type deal where the surface low books a hard right turn allowing the ULL to swing under down by NC instead of over us. If the GFS got some better support from the euro then it would make many feel better. The 0z to 6z shift for the euro helps. Will it keep going for the 12z? YOU better hope so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: heh. literally the opposite of the GEFS GIF I just posted. Fun times. GFS will probably lose. It's just flattening out the wave too fast. There is not a 2/5/10 confluence zone there to crush it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS has 12" here, I've seen this setup before with the Pacific-setup trend forward, and I would guess in actuality I get 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 36 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS is out on a limb having heaviest snowfall over us. Every other model now shows it NE PA to BOS. I'm taking a page from DTs playbook and tossing the GFS. what? Wait... why? The gfs shows the most snow.. why not embrace it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, 40westwx said: what? Wait... why? The gfs shows the most snow.. why not embrace it? When troll weenies collide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, 40westwx said: what? Wait... why? The gfs shows the most snow.. why not embrace it? Yeah I don’t get the negativity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Don't look at the ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 If you are in Baltimore or Harford Counties, look at the UKMET. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: If you are in Baltimore or Harford Counties, look at the UKMET. What about southeast Baltimore county? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This is literally going in the opposite direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: What about southeast Baltimore county? Lol Cutoff zone. The UKMET is really not good if you want big totals, it appears it hits the northern tier with some CCB snows as the low departs. I have learned not to rely on that because it rarely happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, jewell2188 said: This is literally going in the opposite direction. You’re worried in Culpeper? Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Ouch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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