paxpatriot Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I’m always rooting for everyone in this forum to get crushed, but a lot of us haven’t seen much snow in two years, so happy to be in the Hagerstown area for this one. Looking great out here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Pretty decent thump event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm actually okay with the Euro. Pretty funny right, I mean in what year would a Euro like that come out 48 hours before an event and people wouldn't be good with it? Feels like one of those cut the totals in half kind of storms though because of it saying how much snow was falling today in spots that got none but still a solid start to winter if it's true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Scraff said: Do I have to sign in blood for the Euro? ETA: Everyone feeling a little better now? Same setup, not much to feel better about. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looks like Euro swings and misses on the deform for us but we still see some big totals west of 95 but south of mappy/psu? I'd love the Euro totals but given this depiction, not seeing how I get thumped like that without any deform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Scuddz said: Seconded. If I can end the event without the grass poking through, it's a win. I would need hourly output to see how long the mix period is. But seems like we’d probably get a few inches on the front? Then lots of sleet, then a couple inches at the end. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I am good with Euro. GFS will come around for 18z happy hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, osfan24 said: Looks like Euro swings and misses on the deform for us but we still see some big totals west of 95 but south of mappy/psu? I'd love the Euro totals but given this depiction, not seeing how I get thumped like that without any deform. I see it, and if anything, this is the depiction you’d want to score in. The WAA is there for a thump like that coupled with some decent LL dynamics. It’s achievable, but we’ll see if these numbers are to believed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Beatdown 48 hours out on the Euro. Ill take it. Berkeley Springs is the spot for this one. They are gonna get destroyed. 15 miles from me. Ugh. I think I'm in a decent spot for this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Doesn't look like we get CCB'd down this way but any shift at all (like 10-20 miles even) SE with LP track and things get exponentially better fo 95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Beatdown 48 hours out on the Euro. Ill take it. Berkeley Springs is the spot for this one. They are gonna get destroyed. Wow. 1 -81 corridor crushed. Euro was good before out here but took it up another notch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I am deciding between targeting Hagerstown or Hancock in MD perhaps. Chambersburg, PA would be backup if I had to go that far north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Wow. 1 -81 corridor crushed. Euro was good before out here but took it up another notch. Yeah, if that verifies (it won't) then I'm golden. Here I expect some front end followed by a lot of mix and sleet and then finishing up with additional. Namely because that's usually the m.o. here. Hard to buck climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Wow. 1 -81 corridor crushed. Euro was good before out here but took it up another notch. The banding is starting to show up on the Euro further west, even getting a little bit of it past Cumberland. You’re in a really good spot for this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The euro really is a solid outcome for many folks N/W of 95 and even in closer to Baltimore to the 495 beltway it’s a solid run. Up in my neck of the woods near Westminster/just west, we’re looking solid for a 10-15” snowfall for the Parr’s ridge crew including Loseto and PSU over to mappy. Obviously some of the clown maps are a bit overdone, but even reducing 25% gets us a foot on Euro/GFS/CMC even. The good part about this run of the Euro is we’re not depending on a CCB/deform as much to hit good totals. It’s colder early on and everyone puts down a few inches initially. It comes in relatively hot and heavy as depicted this run. sweet thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Same features at play, low track near the Bay, retreating High with marginal cold air eroding with strong e-se flow aloft off a 50F Atlantic into temps in the mid 30s? Not a screamer for a winter storm in my opinion. No way we see 10:1 ratios in the immediate suburbs. Shave euro numbers in half and that would be closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, eyewall said: I am deciding between targeting Hagerstown or Hancock in MD perhaps. Chambersburg, PA would be backup if I had to go that far north. You are driving up from Raleigh?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: I’m always rooting for everyone in this forum to get crushed, but a lot of us haven’t seen much snow in two years, so happy to be in the Hagerstown area for this one. Looking great out here. Yeah. You are getting wrecked. I like the Berkely Springs/Hancock. Hagerstown area for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This is going to be a pure nowcasting event for everyone within 15 miles of I95. I really don't think any of the models are going to know where the 925 and 850 0C boundaries are going to set up with any lead time. This will be an HRRR and CC NEXRAD day for people like me living close to Baltimore. I'm putting no stock in the models other than 'its going to be very close and I'm going to see a mixed bag throughout the day, possibly ending with some nice deform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, ravensrule said: You are driving up from Raleigh?. Yes and probably would park myself at motel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I would need hourly output to see how long the mix period is. But seems like we’d probably get a few inches on the front? Then lots of sleet, then a couple inches at the end. Sign me up. Baltimore barely loses 850s, FWIW. Verbatim I think it hangs on by a thread. D.C. is at risk of losing them ~6 hours during the best precip, which isn't ideal, but its much closer this run. I'd take my 350" of elevation and pray. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It is impossible to know if you are getting 3, 6, 9 hours etc of mix v snow 48 hours out. I am ecstatic that the DC NW crowd is in the game to get anything before Christmas. Most years we do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Same features at play, low track near the Bay, retreating High with marginal cold air eroding with strong e-se flow aloft off a 50F Atlantic into temps in the mid 30s? Not a screamer for a winter storm in my opinion. No way we see 10:1 ratios in the immediate suburbs. Shave euro numbers in half and that would be closer to reality. That would still give me between 7-8". It would be by far my biggest storm in 4 years. I don't understand all the negativity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Yes and probably would park myself at motel. Wow. You are dedicated. I hope you get a huge storm wherever you decide to end up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, ravensrule said: Wow. You are dedicated. I hope you get a huge storm wherever you decide to end up. After living in VT for a few years I need my fix LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: That would still give me between 7-8". It would be by far my biggest storm in 4 years. I don't understand all the negativity. Ha same thought. 3” of snow, 1” of sleet, and 2-3” of snow on top? All in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, arlwx said: As a warminista near DCA, fit me into the "just where I want it" bingo square. Keep us posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: That would still give me between 7-8". It would be by far my biggest storm in 4 years. I don't understand all the negativity. It’s not negativity it’s an analysis. I know I haven’t posted in here much in the past year, but there used to be some good analysis and debates, now it just seems like a wish cast for snow and trying to hug all the models that give the most snow vs not relying so much on the guidance and more toward the actual synoptic features in play. What happened to all the key posters in here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yes and probably would park myself at motel. I think Hagerstown is probably the safest bet for you. If you go too much into the mountains you might not get out for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, eyewall said: After living in VT for a few years I need my fix LOL. Good to see you on here. I use to creep all the time in the Northern NE Winter thread. Always enjoyed reading your stuff. My avatar pic is side-country at Stowe. Sad that I'm not allowed to up to VT this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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