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December 16/17 Winter Event


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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm actually okay with the Euro.

Pretty funny right, I mean in what year would a Euro like that come out 48 hours before an event and people wouldn't be good with it? Feels like one of those cut the totals in half kind of storms though because of it saying how much snow was falling today in spots that got none but still a solid start to winter if it's true

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3 minutes ago, Scuddz said:

Seconded.   If I can end the event without the grass poking through, it's a win.

I would need hourly output to see how long the mix period is. But seems like we’d probably get a few inches on the front? Then lots of sleet, then a couple inches at the end. Sign me up.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

Looks like Euro swings and misses on the deform for us but we still see some big totals west of 95 but south of mappy/psu? I'd love the Euro totals but given this depiction, not seeing how I get thumped like that without any deform.

I see it, and if anything, this is the depiction you’d want to score in. The WAA is there for a thump like that coupled with some decent LL dynamics. It’s achievable, but we’ll see if these numbers are to believed. 

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1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Wow. 1 -81 corridor crushed. Euro was good before out here but took it up another notch.

Yeah, if that verifies (it won't) then I'm golden.

Here I expect some front end followed by a lot of mix and sleet and then finishing up with additional. Namely because that's usually the m.o. here. Hard to buck climo.

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The euro really is a solid outcome for many folks N/W of 95 and even in closer to Baltimore to the 495 beltway it’s a solid run. 

Up in my neck of the woods near Westminster/just west, we’re looking solid for a 10-15” snowfall for the Parr’s ridge crew including Loseto and PSU over to mappy.

Obviously some of the clown maps are a bit overdone, but even reducing 25% gets us a foot on Euro/GFS/CMC even. 

The good part about this run of the Euro is we’re not depending on a CCB/deform as much to hit good totals. It’s colder early on and everyone puts down a few inches initially. It comes in relatively hot and heavy as depicted this run. 

sweet thanks!

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Same features at play, low track near the Bay, retreating High with marginal cold air eroding with strong e-se flow aloft off a 50F Atlantic into temps in the mid 30s? Not a screamer for a winter storm in my opinion. No way we see 10:1 ratios in the immediate suburbs. Shave euro numbers in half and that would be closer to reality. 

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7 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

I’m always rooting for everyone in this forum to get crushed, but a lot of us haven’t seen much snow in two years, so happy to be in the Hagerstown area for this one. Looking great out here.

Yeah. You are getting wrecked. I like the Berkely Springs/Hancock. Hagerstown area for this one. 

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This is going to be a pure nowcasting event for everyone within 15 miles of I95. I really don't think any of the models are going to know where the 925 and 850 0C boundaries are going to set up with any lead time.  This will be an HRRR and CC NEXRAD day for people like me living close to Baltimore. I'm putting no stock in the models other than 'its going to be very close and I'm going to see a mixed bag throughout the day, possibly ending with some nice deform.

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I would need hourly output to see how long the mix period is. But seems like we’d probably get a few inches on the front? Then lots of sleet, then a couple inches at the end. Sign me up.

Baltimore barely loses 850s, FWIW. Verbatim I think it hangs on by a thread.

D.C. is at risk of losing them ~6 hours during the best precip, which isn't ideal, but its much closer this run. I'd take my 350" of elevation and pray. 

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Same features at play, low track near the Bay, retreating High with marginal cold air eroding with strong e-se flow aloft off a 50F Atlantic into temps in the mid 30s? Not a screamer for a winter storm in my opinion. No way we see 10:1 ratios in the immediate suburbs. Shave euro numbers in half and that would be closer to reality. 

That would still give me between 7-8". It would be by far my biggest storm in 4 years. I don't understand all the negativity. 

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1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

That would still give me between 7-8". It would be by far my biggest storm in 4 years. I don't understand all the negativity. 

It’s not negativity it’s an analysis. I know I haven’t posted in here much in the past year, but there used to be some good analysis and debates, now it just seems like a wish cast for snow and trying to hug all the models that give the most snow vs not relying so much on the guidance and more toward the actual synoptic features in play. What happened to all the key posters in here? 

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