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December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

It's actually an improvement over 06z snow map wise but I'm comparing Pivotal maps to WxBell maps. WxBell seems delayed this run.

Do I dare post the clown map? I guess I'll do it anyways. Note that the Euro for whatever reason gives immediate west areas of I-95 like .5-1" of snow for today for some reason, as well as 2-3" where it jackpots places for Wednesday. Kuchera ratios to be taken lightly obviously, but mainly using Kuchera in replacement for 10:1 due to the marginal DC temps. 

1482480503_ecmwf-deterministic-md-total_snow_kuchera-8206400(3).thumb.png.a44de40356c78c866ea6a206139f01a2.png

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

A low into the Chesapeak bay isn't going to do any good.  A touch colder to start but cant fight that track off.

Track is west but it’s also colder. If you’re forecasting by 10:1 snow maps you’ll like the euro. 925 stays below freezing west of 95. 850 freezing gets up toward the M-D line so sleet for much of us for a time. I’d take the euro in a hot second.

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Probably going to be a lot of mixing for the NW suburbs, but it isn't the end of the world. This is a generic high end advisory, maybe low end warning event N&W of I-95 per the Euro, unless I'm missing something. It absolutely stings to lose a big storm inside of D5, but this event is shaping up to give a lot of people more snow before December 20th than in the past 2 winters. Climo in this area is a b*tch. Longitude and elevation are you friends when living here.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Track is west but it’s also colder. If you’re forecasting by 10:1 snow maps you’ll like the euro. 925 stays below freezing west of 95. 850 freezing gets up toward the M-D line so sleet for much of us for a time. I’d take the euro in a hot second.

Seconded.   If I can end the event without the grass poking through, it's a win.

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2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

I think we get a period of snow that accumulates on the grass that mixes with sleet and rain...I go over to plain rain with sleet mixed in by around dinner time and then all goes back to snow and ends by 10pm and we get 1-2 inches of slush.   We initially get a watch that gets converted to a WWA tomorrow.  And we hope for another event and do it all over again.  

I'm giving the EURO the opportunity to bail out the GFS before I commit.

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Do I dare post the clown map? I guess I'll do it anyways. Note that the Euro for whatever reason gives immediate west areas of I-95 like .5-1" of snow for today for some reason, as well as 2-3" where it jackpots places for Wednesday. Kuchera ratios to be taken lightly obviously, but mainly using Kuchera in replacement for 10:1 due to the marginal DC temps. 

1482480503_ecmwf-deterministic-md-total_snow_kuchera-8206400(3).thumb.png.a44de40356c78c866ea6a206139f01a2.png

If nothing else, the bleeding has stopped momentarily and there is some hope again, if this map is legit and not loaded with sleet disguised as snow. Maybe this is the start of a reverse trend? At least there is some hope now going into 18z.

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The euro really is a solid outcome for many folks N/W of 95 and even in closer to Baltimore to the 495 beltway it’s a solid run. 

Up in my neck of the woods near Westminster/just west, we’re looking solid for a 10-15” snowfall for the Parr’s ridge crew including Loseto and PSU over to mappy.

Obviously some of the clown maps are a bit overdone, but even reducing 25% gets us a foot on Euro/GFS/CMC even. 

The good part about this run of the Euro is we’re not depending on a CCB/deform as much to hit good totals. It’s colder early on and everyone puts down a few inches initially. It comes in relatively hot and heavy as depicted this run. 

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