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December 16/17 Winter Event


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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Track is west but it’s also colder. If you’re forecasting by 10:1 snow maps you’ll like the euro. 925 stays below freezing west of 95. 850 freezing gets up toward the M-D line so sleet for much of us for a time. I’d take the euro in a hot second.

Seconded.   If I can end the event without the grass poking through, it's a win.

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2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

I think we get a period of snow that accumulates on the grass that mixes with sleet and rain...I go over to plain rain with sleet mixed in by around dinner time and then all goes back to snow and ends by 10pm and we get 1-2 inches of slush.   We initially get a watch that gets converted to a WWA tomorrow.  And we hope for another event and do it all over again.  

I'm giving the EURO the opportunity to bail out the GFS before I commit.

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Do I dare post the clown map? I guess I'll do it anyways. Note that the Euro for whatever reason gives immediate west areas of I-95 like .5-1" of snow for today for some reason, as well as 2-3" where it jackpots places for Wednesday. Kuchera ratios to be taken lightly obviously, but mainly using Kuchera in replacement for 10:1 due to the marginal DC temps. 

1482480503_ecmwf-deterministic-md-total_snow_kuchera-8206400(3).thumb.png.a44de40356c78c866ea6a206139f01a2.png

If nothing else, the bleeding has stopped momentarily and there is some hope again, if this map is legit and not loaded with sleet disguised as snow. Maybe this is the start of a reverse trend? At least there is some hope now going into 18z.

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The euro really is a solid outcome for many folks N/W of 95 and even in closer to Baltimore to the 495 beltway it’s a solid run. 

Up in my neck of the woods near Westminster/just west, we’re looking solid for a 10-15” snowfall for the Parr’s ridge crew including Loseto and PSU over to mappy.

Obviously some of the clown maps are a bit overdone, but even reducing 25% gets us a foot on Euro/GFS/CMC even. 

The good part about this run of the Euro is we’re not depending on a CCB/deform as much to hit good totals. It’s colder early on and everyone puts down a few inches initially. It comes in relatively hot and heavy as depicted this run. 

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm actually okay with the Euro.

Pretty funny right, I mean in what year would a Euro like that come out 48 hours before an event and people wouldn't be good with it? Feels like one of those cut the totals in half kind of storms though because of it saying how much snow was falling today in spots that got none but still a solid start to winter if it's true

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3 minutes ago, Scuddz said:

Seconded.   If I can end the event without the grass poking through, it's a win.

I would need hourly output to see how long the mix period is. But seems like we’d probably get a few inches on the front? Then lots of sleet, then a couple inches at the end. Sign me up.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

Looks like Euro swings and misses on the deform for us but we still see some big totals west of 95 but south of mappy/psu? I'd love the Euro totals but given this depiction, not seeing how I get thumped like that without any deform.

I see it, and if anything, this is the depiction you’d want to score in. The WAA is there for a thump like that coupled with some decent LL dynamics. It’s achievable, but we’ll see if these numbers are to believed. 

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1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Wow. 1 -81 corridor crushed. Euro was good before out here but took it up another notch.

Yeah, if that verifies (it won't) then I'm golden.

Here I expect some front end followed by a lot of mix and sleet and then finishing up with additional. Namely because that's usually the m.o. here. Hard to buck climo.

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The euro really is a solid outcome for many folks N/W of 95 and even in closer to Baltimore to the 495 beltway it’s a solid run. 

Up in my neck of the woods near Westminster/just west, we’re looking solid for a 10-15” snowfall for the Parr’s ridge crew including Loseto and PSU over to mappy.

Obviously some of the clown maps are a bit overdone, but even reducing 25% gets us a foot on Euro/GFS/CMC even. 

The good part about this run of the Euro is we’re not depending on a CCB/deform as much to hit good totals. It’s colder early on and everyone puts down a few inches initially. It comes in relatively hot and heavy as depicted this run. 

sweet thanks!

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Same features at play, low track near the Bay, retreating High with marginal cold air eroding with strong e-se flow aloft off a 50F Atlantic into temps in the mid 30s? Not a screamer for a winter storm in my opinion. No way we see 10:1 ratios in the immediate suburbs. Shave euro numbers in half and that would be closer to reality. 

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7 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

I’m always rooting for everyone in this forum to get crushed, but a lot of us haven’t seen much snow in two years, so happy to be in the Hagerstown area for this one. Looking great out here.

Yeah. You are getting wrecked. I like the Berkely Springs/Hancock. Hagerstown area for this one. 

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This is going to be a pure nowcasting event for everyone within 15 miles of I95. I really don't think any of the models are going to know where the 925 and 850 0C boundaries are going to set up with any lead time.  This will be an HRRR and CC NEXRAD day for people like me living close to Baltimore. I'm putting no stock in the models other than 'its going to be very close and I'm going to see a mixed bag throughout the day, possibly ending with some nice deform.

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