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December 16/17 Winter Event


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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Clown

I come in here because what happens here first usually affects me next. There are so many great posters in this area...my goodness, I have learned so much over the years just stopping in and quietly reading. And yet, some of the very best posters from this area no longer post...and it's no wonder why. Why people want to cower behind a keyboard and post stupidity is such a shame. And it affects perceptions towards the whole bunch. 

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You’ll be slightly less disappointed perhaps. I’m 5 miles NW of Manassas up 619.  Hopefully you are further NW.  But welcome to the hood.  Need to get you and Wonderdog to Atlas for a beer sometime.  

Hugging the haymarket line, so yes a bit more north too. Here's hoping..

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

It's actually an improvement over 06z snow map wise but I'm comparing Pivotal maps to WxBell maps. WxBell seems delayed this run.

Do I dare post the clown map? I guess I'll do it anyways. Note that the Euro for whatever reason gives immediate west areas of I-95 like .5-1" of snow for today for some reason, as well as 2-3" where it jackpots places for Wednesday. Kuchera ratios to be taken lightly obviously, but mainly using Kuchera in replacement for 10:1 due to the marginal DC temps. 

1482480503_ecmwf-deterministic-md-total_snow_kuchera-8206400(3).thumb.png.a44de40356c78c866ea6a206139f01a2.png

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

A low into the Chesapeak bay isn't going to do any good.  A touch colder to start but cant fight that track off.

Track is west but it’s also colder. If you’re forecasting by 10:1 snow maps you’ll like the euro. 925 stays below freezing west of 95. 850 freezing gets up toward the M-D line so sleet for much of us for a time. I’d take the euro in a hot second.

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Probably going to be a lot of mixing for the NW suburbs, but it isn't the end of the world. This is a generic high end advisory, maybe low end warning event N&W of I-95 per the Euro, unless I'm missing something. It absolutely stings to lose a big storm inside of D5, but this event is shaping up to give a lot of people more snow before December 20th than in the past 2 winters. Climo in this area is a b*tch. Longitude and elevation are you friends when living here.

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