PivotPoint Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The GFS is by far the lowest. It will adjust. Every other model has a qpf max of 2”+. There will be 20” totals from this storm it just won’t be over us. The Max is likely up in PA. That’s our problem...not qpf. 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: CMC is wetter than the GFS. 1.3 out here for the event. A foot is still on the table for the 81 corridor. I agree. I feel like QPF will not be a factor this go around. Still see the 1.5"+ up and down shen valley. My wag is that the lp placement is too tucked with some of these latest runs. The speed of the system seems to be increasing each model run. I think best case for dc -- 20 miles west, will be the low placement staying a little further east and cold air hanging as long as possible. My initial call from 4 days ago still stands 2-6 dc area, Leesburg 6-12, Winchester to the mountains 12+. Hard to beat climo around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Remember that in the list of useful models the UKMET wasn't very high. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, H2O said: Remember that in the list of useful models the UKMET wasn't very high. Just below Hieroglyphics, I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 If this ends up continuing trending poorly, I'd have to hand it to the GFS-Para (GFSv16), it's been saying rain/sleet for I95 for days. Edit: Should mention that it handled things quite poorly in other ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Remember that in the list of useful models the UKMET wasn't very high. Yep, acknowledged as much in my post. Just passing time. Anyways, MSLP track looks better but it's still warm. Guessing it won't make any friends in this subforum when the snow maps come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: To my untrained eye the track of the low on the UKMET looks better. But as @MillvilleWx mentioned last night, might as well be shaking a magic eight ball. Looks like the low is at the bench mark in panel one and moves NNE while deepening. If that happened verbatim and i get heavy rain, congrats Mother Nature lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 22 minutes ago, arlwx said: As a warminista near DCA, fit me into the "just where I want it" bingo square. How can anyone prefer 34 degree heavy rain to a snowstorm? Makes no sense to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Just below Hieroglyphics, I believe? Yeah but ahead of 'wishing really hard' though, so there's still hope! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Just below Hieroglyphics, I believe? yes. If I could translate "DC sucks for snow" into hieroglyphics it would say: bird bird cup sickle boots guy with beard cloud frowny face 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Warm Nose said: Yeah but ahead of 'wishing really hard' though, so there's still hope! I think that's the new, modern term for "persistence"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: So.. What should we be looking for to see it trend better? Better 50/50? Closes off 850 sooner? Further south track? All the above? This thing is bleeding westward at an alarming rate since yesterday. We have had some glimpses of hope in an otherwise telltale sign. By this time tomorrow the low will be over Columbus Ohio and we’ll be tracking potential severe weather. Maybe we can get a tornado watch? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 UK is a really good track for out this way. 540 line is perfect as well. Basically running down the spine of the Blue Ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 In the "positive signs" department, it's now spitting nice fat flakes in between the torrential raindrops here, so that's good. I'm at 800 feet, so maybe some hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: To my untrained eye the track of the low on the UKMET looks better. But as @MillvilleWx mentioned last night, might as well be shaking a magic eight ball. Naw when things are going sideways you hug whatever you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Naw when things are going sideways you hug whatever you can. It ain't even that great, but I'll elect to hug. And maybe travel to Charlottesville. Not gonna lie, kinda like this run because it sorta screws NYC. I expect Boston to do better than us but NYC getting 2' and me getting zero rubs me the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Naw when things are going sideways you hug whatever you can. There will come a time where we all have to come terms with reality (probably around 4pm Wednesday when rain and the occasional pinger and mangled flake are falling). But until then if a 2nd rate model gives me hope I’ll ride with it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UK is a really good track for out this way. 540 line is perfect as well. Basically running down the spine of the Blue Ridge. Qpf? Nvmd. See the snowfall map. Not very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 UKMET snowfall map is not encouraging. Maybe 1-3 inches for I95, but of course lots of that would be washed away in the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 UK is not a good model especially if trying to narrow in on precip totals, thermals, etc. Basically beyond track, I wouldn’t even look at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: UKMET snowfall map is not encouraging. Maybe 1-3 inches for I95, but of course lots of that would be washed away in the rain. It is substantially warmer than most guidance. If you just take UKIE track, CMC/RGEM temps, and GFS precip... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Qpf? In line with the CMC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 That's a whole lot of plain rain on the UKMET, or perhaps sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: In line with the CMC: Thanks. Much wetter than I thought based on looking at the snowfall map. 9" of snow on 1.5" qpf?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It is substantially warmer than most guidance. If you just take UKIE track, CMC/RGEM temps, and GFS precip... I was just thinking the same thing. With enough extrapolation i can even get 1/2 foot just west of 95 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Thanks. Much wetter than I thought based on looking at the snowfall map. 9" of snow on 1.5" qpf?? Today's is lumped in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: In line with the CMC: not to belabor UKMET precip guidance, decent chunk of that is from today. This is probably better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: In line with the CMC: This combined with the snow map and placement of low is both hilarious and infuriating. It's literally a perfect position of the low dumping over 2 inches of liquid over Central MD and it's almost all rain. How? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Thanks. Much wetter than I thought based on looking at the snowfall map. 9" of snow on 1.5" qpf?? Agree. Maybe a warm nose somewhere up top? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I know when I start switching my expectation from rooting to snow to rooting for sleet, things aren't looking good. I was hoping this would be like the feb '14 miller A(?) storm that gave me 5-7" ish inside the beltway (plus rain/sleet mix) while NW areas got 12"+.... but last 24 hours of trends have me thinking that's an unlikely scenario. But such is climo where I am :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: not to belabor UKMET precip guidance, decent chunk of that is from today. This is probably better. 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Today's is lumped in there Thanks. Got over .75" today. That is pretty dry then for Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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