clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Qpf? In line with the CMC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 That's a whole lot of plain rain on the UKMET, or perhaps sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: In line with the CMC: Thanks. Much wetter than I thought based on looking at the snowfall map. 9" of snow on 1.5" qpf?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It is substantially warmer than most guidance. If you just take UKIE track, CMC/RGEM temps, and GFS precip... I was just thinking the same thing. With enough extrapolation i can even get 1/2 foot just west of 95 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Thanks. Much wetter than I thought based on looking at the snowfall map. 9" of snow on 1.5" qpf?? Today's is lumped in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: In line with the CMC: not to belabor UKMET precip guidance, decent chunk of that is from today. This is probably better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: In line with the CMC: This combined with the snow map and placement of low is both hilarious and infuriating. It's literally a perfect position of the low dumping over 2 inches of liquid over Central MD and it's almost all rain. How? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Thanks. Much wetter than I thought based on looking at the snowfall map. 9" of snow on 1.5" qpf?? Agree. Maybe a warm nose somewhere up top? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I know when I start switching my expectation from rooting to snow to rooting for sleet, things aren't looking good. I was hoping this would be like the feb '14 miller A(?) storm that gave me 5-7" ish inside the beltway (plus rain/sleet mix) while NW areas got 12"+.... but last 24 hours of trends have me thinking that's an unlikely scenario. But such is climo where I am :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: not to belabor UKMET precip guidance, decent chunk of that is from today. This is probably better. 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Today's is lumped in there Thanks. Got over .75" today. That is pretty dry then for Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: not to belabor UKMET precip guidance, decent chunk of that is from today. This is probably better. Not out this way. We are about done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, baltosquid said: UKMET snowfall map is not encouraging. Maybe 1-3 inches for I95, but of course lots of that would be washed away in the rain. UKMET is a disaster everywhere southeast of Frederick to Manchester once you factor in sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: In line with the CMC: Well in keeping with 2020 at least we get the most rain in SoMD. Maybe we can squeak out 100" for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Looking at some more specifics... I see one of the issues for us is the west coast ridge is getting squeezed by the incoming coast storm in Washington st/BC. It's hurting us because it adds a "pusher" up stream which affects us down stream and doesn't allow for our storm to have early development and close that H5 off like a 100 miles earlier. If that storm out west could slow down significantly or come in at a higher latitude, it bodes better for us imo with earlier development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Not out this way. We are about done. I promise you it is! I don't want to post another UKMET map but if you go to Pivotal the first six hours of the run got you down for about .7" up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: This combined with the snow map and placement of low is both hilarious and infuriating. It's literally a perfect position of the low dumping over 2 inches of liquid over Central MD and it's almost all rain. How? That high better do some steroids before the Euro comes out. I believe that’s part of the issue anyway. If only we had it at 1040 in Quebec... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I promise you it is! I don't want to post another UKMET map but if you go to Pivotal the first six hours of the run got you down for about .7" up that way. Hmmm. You are right. The UK sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, osfan24 said: This combined with the snow map and placement of low is both hilarious and infuriating. It's literally a perfect position of the low dumping over 2 inches of liquid over Central MD and it's almost all rain. How? It’s mostly sleet technically I believe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Scraff said: That high better do some steroids before the Euro comes out. I believe that’s part of the issue anyway. If only we had it at 1040 in Quebec... It's also too far ne. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 who knows. Maybe Dr. No will suck us back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmk Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This is my first winter having moved from Manassas to Gainesville. I'm hoping now being slightly more west will help here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Definitly rooting for a very inland track now so everyone is miserable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: Definitly rooting for a very inland track now so everyone is miserable. ...And that, Charlie Brown, is what Christmas is all about... 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This thread is so depressing to read now. Glad I live out west 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, DCAlexandria said: Definitly rooting for a very inland track now so everyone is miserable. Nah, I'm rooting for other posters here to get some great snow. That said, it makes me irrationally angry seeing Philly and NYC getting slammed and we don't. That's pretty rare, especially in a situation like this where it's not like we are missing the precip, which sometimes happens when the low is too far east and NYC and Boston get slammed, but a coastal where it's too warm here but cold enough there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Nah, I'm rooting for other posters here to get some great snow. That said, it makes me irrationally angry seeing Philly and NYC getting slammed and we don't. That's pretty rare, especially in a situation like this where it's not like we are missing the precip, which sometimes happens when the low is too far east and NYC and Boston get slammed, but a coastal where it's too warm here but cold enough there. Yup same here, I'm rooting for our western peeps to cash in big. They got a few nothingburgers during 16-17 and 17-18. A whole bunch of southern sliders in there that completely screwed them over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Definitly rooting for a very inland track now so everyone is miserable. how many bad posts you got left before you're done for the day? 2? 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Let’s Go!! Biggest Euro run of them all is upon us. May the winds of good fortune be in our favor... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Based off the CPC guidance, it's interesting to see how much the -NAO is under-performing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, jmk said: This is my first winter having moved from Manassas to Gainesville. I'm hoping now being slightly more west will help here. You’ll be slightly less disappointed perhaps. I’m 5 miles NW of Manassas up 619. Hopefully you are further NW. But welcome to the hood. Need to get you and Wonderdog to Atlas for a beer sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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