baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Interestingly, the 06z EPS seems to be a bit more uncertain than the 00z. Bit more strung out in terms of member lows from NW to SE at hour 72. Only potential positive I can see to hang onto. May still have time and "room" amongst that uncertainty in the ensemble for a slight shift in that rain/snow line, but the densest clusters and continuing trend are disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Ji will be crushedYa that's not going to work for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: You will get the lollis to 10-12 up there. No mixing. Just lack of precip. I said a few days ago these monster rate events often seem to fizzle and those with good temps waste hours getting spitting snow while those getting yellow-banded are at 35 degrees. yeah temps dont look like a problem here, unless that low comes inland more. like you said, the precip amount itself. i will take whatever falls of course. snow is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS has been consistently getting wetter out here from yesterday’s runs. 18z yesterday threw 0.3” QPF here...today’s 12z (including upslope) is just shy of an 1”. 3k starting tomorrow will start to be useful to hone in on mesoscale features. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: CMC running a tight line right down I-95. Temps in the cities are just below freezing with heavy precip. Could be a sleet bomb in the making. Soundings are showing more sleet than rain in the cities. CAA could be enough to at least hold off rain for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Ji will be crushed Ya that's not going to work for me What will you tell your cult? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, Yeoman said: We're no good at analfront snows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Its reality. Just a tad too much emotion if i'm being honest but I'm sure you have a handle on this thing at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Just a tad too much emotion if i'm being honest but I'm sure you have a handle on this thing at this point I leave emotion out of the forecast. I’m helping emergency managers make decisions so must remove emotion and put analysis and facts on the table.no emotion in my post, just facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Just a tad too much emotion if i'm being honest but I'm sure you have a handle on this thing at this point he isn't going to Sully us into the potomac. This is straight up air florida 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, Yeoman said: We're no good at analfront snows I don't like brown snow anyways 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I leave emotion out of the forecast. I’m helping emergency managers make decisions so must remove emotion and put analysis and facts on the table.no emotion in my post, just facts. Well then I guess my emotion detector is off. Good luck with your forecast and stay safe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GGEM notice how the purple line holds steady in every other area, while it keeps chipping away in the DC area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I jinxed things with my map. Might need to update. Birds gonna need to work overtime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Does anyone else hate it when Amped gets it right by not breaking character? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, H2O said: Does anyone else hate it when Amped gets it right by not breaking character? So easy to be a contrarian negative weenie in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It's always fun until reality sets in. Climo wins again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How about we wait before you bless us with lessons. And CAD doesn’t usually apply in situations where lows run the Piedmont Lot of hot takes here today. Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out. People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails. But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks. For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Amped said: GGEM notice how the purple line holds steady in every other area, while it keeps chipping away in the DC area. Chipping away a lot in the Baltimore area as well, especially the most recent run. Ouch. I think we can all see where this is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lot of hot takes here today. Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out. People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails. But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks. For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show. I still think we at least cover the ground and get a fair amount of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lot of hot takes here today. Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out. People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails. But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks. For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show. Don't think anyone could've said it better than this. For the past few days, even when the GFS and even the Euro were showing decent outputs, we were still walking between raindrops. No 100% consensus, still NW solutions, and plenty of time for the typical NW jog. It's also just a product of the time of year, we're still a month and change away from prime snow climo. Just gotta pack up and move on, hopefully this pattern delivers for the people who have been snow droughted the most (just looking forward, the EPS has a bundle of lows centered around Indiana on Christmas day ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Well then I guess my emotion detector is off. Good luck with your forecast and stay safe There was no ill will intended at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 43 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I mentioned it at 18z yesterday. I was told the models still had enough precip to support December 2009 totals across the land. LOL The GFS is by far the lowest. It will adjust. Every other model has a qpf max of 2”+. There will be 20” totals from this storm it just won’t be over us. The Max is likely up in PA. That’s our problem...not qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 CMC is wetter than the GFS. 1.3 out here for the event. A foot is still on the table for the 81 corridor. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 As a warminista near DCA, fit me into the "just where I want it" bingo square. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I think everyone could use Yoda coming in here with an upside down UKMET map telling us it will all be okay 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flsch22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 We never want to be on the southern edge of the heavy snow 4-5 days out. Always better to pull for the north trend. But never felt confident about this one. Bright side is even the local ski areas should do pretty well so maybe can be open for business in time for X-mas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lot of hot takes here today. Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out. People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails. But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks. For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show. Well said. I am 57 and lived here my entire life loving snow. Can’t tell you how many times back in the mid 70s the famous “Heavy Snow Warning” was issued for 4-6 inches. After no snow I would get the update. How? Calling 936-1212. Then would be crushed to hear the revised forecast of a Travelers Advisory for 1-3. And reality would end up being 0. Many years later the drill might be different but the results frequently the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, 40westwx said: The 12Z is about 75 miles to the west of the 6Z Not a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 To my untrained eye the track of the low on the UKMET looks better. But as @MillvilleWx mentioned last night, might as well be shaking a magic eight ball. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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