Cobalt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lot of hot takes here today. Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out. People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails. But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks. For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show. Don't think anyone could've said it better than this. For the past few days, even when the GFS and even the Euro were showing decent outputs, we were still walking between raindrops. No 100% consensus, still NW solutions, and plenty of time for the typical NW jog. It's also just a product of the time of year, we're still a month and change away from prime snow climo. Just gotta pack up and move on, hopefully this pattern delivers for the people who have been snow droughted the most (just looking forward, the EPS has a bundle of lows centered around Indiana on Christmas day ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Well then I guess my emotion detector is off. Good luck with your forecast and stay safe There was no ill will intended at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 43 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I mentioned it at 18z yesterday. I was told the models still had enough precip to support December 2009 totals across the land. LOL The GFS is by far the lowest. It will adjust. Every other model has a qpf max of 2”+. There will be 20” totals from this storm it just won’t be over us. The Max is likely up in PA. That’s our problem...not qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 CMC is wetter than the GFS. 1.3 out here for the event. A foot is still on the table for the 81 corridor. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 As a warminista near DCA, fit me into the "just where I want it" bingo square. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I think everyone could use Yoda coming in here with an upside down UKMET map telling us it will all be okay 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flsch22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 We never want to be on the southern edge of the heavy snow 4-5 days out. Always better to pull for the north trend. But never felt confident about this one. Bright side is even the local ski areas should do pretty well so maybe can be open for business in time for X-mas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lot of hot takes here today. Got accused of "cliff diving" or whatever because I'm a lifelong residents of these here parts, and I've seen this movie a million times and I know how it works out. People know I don't just give up easily...shit sometimes I'm the last man standing when everyone bails. But this one doesn't feel right...I'm talking for us 95/DC folks. For you...kick back, open up a can of your favorite brew and get ready for the show. Well said. I am 57 and lived here my entire life loving snow. Can’t tell you how many times back in the mid 70s the famous “Heavy Snow Warning” was issued for 4-6 inches. After no snow I would get the update. How? Calling 936-1212. Then would be crushed to hear the revised forecast of a Travelers Advisory for 1-3. And reality would end up being 0. Many years later the drill might be different but the results frequently the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, 40westwx said: The 12Z is about 75 miles to the west of the 6Z Not a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 To my untrained eye the track of the low on the UKMET looks better. But as @MillvilleWx mentioned last night, might as well be shaking a magic eight ball. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The GFS is by far the lowest. It will adjust. Every other model has a qpf max of 2”+. There will be 20” totals from this storm it just won’t be over us. The Max is likely up in PA. That’s our problem...not qpf. 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: CMC is wetter than the GFS. 1.3 out here for the event. A foot is still on the table for the 81 corridor. I agree. I feel like QPF will not be a factor this go around. Still see the 1.5"+ up and down shen valley. My wag is that the lp placement is too tucked with some of these latest runs. The speed of the system seems to be increasing each model run. I think best case for dc -- 20 miles west, will be the low placement staying a little further east and cold air hanging as long as possible. My initial call from 4 days ago still stands 2-6 dc area, Leesburg 6-12, Winchester to the mountains 12+. Hard to beat climo around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Remember that in the list of useful models the UKMET wasn't very high. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, H2O said: Remember that in the list of useful models the UKMET wasn't very high. Just below Hieroglyphics, I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 If this ends up continuing trending poorly, I'd have to hand it to the GFS-Para (GFSv16), it's been saying rain/sleet for I95 for days. Edit: Should mention that it handled things quite poorly in other ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Remember that in the list of useful models the UKMET wasn't very high. Yep, acknowledged as much in my post. Just passing time. Anyways, MSLP track looks better but it's still warm. Guessing it won't make any friends in this subforum when the snow maps come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: To my untrained eye the track of the low on the UKMET looks better. But as @MillvilleWx mentioned last night, might as well be shaking a magic eight ball. Looks like the low is at the bench mark in panel one and moves NNE while deepening. If that happened verbatim and i get heavy rain, congrats Mother Nature lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 22 minutes ago, arlwx said: As a warminista near DCA, fit me into the "just where I want it" bingo square. How can anyone prefer 34 degree heavy rain to a snowstorm? Makes no sense to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Just below Hieroglyphics, I believe? Yeah but ahead of 'wishing really hard' though, so there's still hope! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Just below Hieroglyphics, I believe? yes. If I could translate "DC sucks for snow" into hieroglyphics it would say: bird bird cup sickle boots guy with beard cloud frowny face 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Warm Nose said: Yeah but ahead of 'wishing really hard' though, so there's still hope! I think that's the new, modern term for "persistence"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: So.. What should we be looking for to see it trend better? Better 50/50? Closes off 850 sooner? Further south track? All the above? This thing is bleeding westward at an alarming rate since yesterday. We have had some glimpses of hope in an otherwise telltale sign. By this time tomorrow the low will be over Columbus Ohio and we’ll be tracking potential severe weather. Maybe we can get a tornado watch? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 UK is a really good track for out this way. 540 line is perfect as well. Basically running down the spine of the Blue Ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 In the "positive signs" department, it's now spitting nice fat flakes in between the torrential raindrops here, so that's good. I'm at 800 feet, so maybe some hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: To my untrained eye the track of the low on the UKMET looks better. But as @MillvilleWx mentioned last night, might as well be shaking a magic eight ball. Naw when things are going sideways you hug whatever you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Naw when things are going sideways you hug whatever you can. It ain't even that great, but I'll elect to hug. And maybe travel to Charlottesville. Not gonna lie, kinda like this run because it sorta screws NYC. I expect Boston to do better than us but NYC getting 2' and me getting zero rubs me the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Naw when things are going sideways you hug whatever you can. There will come a time where we all have to come terms with reality (probably around 4pm Wednesday when rain and the occasional pinger and mangled flake are falling). But until then if a 2nd rate model gives me hope I’ll ride with it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UK is a really good track for out this way. 540 line is perfect as well. Basically running down the spine of the Blue Ridge. Qpf? Nvmd. See the snowfall map. Not very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 UKMET snowfall map is not encouraging. Maybe 1-3 inches for I95, but of course lots of that would be washed away in the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 UK is not a good model especially if trying to narrow in on precip totals, thermals, etc. Basically beyond track, I wouldn’t even look at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: UKMET snowfall map is not encouraging. Maybe 1-3 inches for I95, but of course lots of that would be washed away in the rain. It is substantially warmer than most guidance. If you just take UKIE track, CMC/RGEM temps, and GFS precip... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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