December 16/17 Winter Event

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

Sorry IronTy -- I grew up a few miles south of Dunkirk and know all about southern MD heartbreak.  Once my job locked in DC I started shopping for a NW area.  My family is still all there and they have fun with me when southern MD gets a big hit that I miss.

I'm looking to buy about 100ac in Garrett county and build a small log cabin on it in the next 3-4 years.  Once that happens I'll be heading up there in my NSX two days before every snow and then be stuck there for days waiting for the snow to clear before I can make it back home to the tropics in Calvert.

 

 

[jayyy]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Personally, I’d lock that the F up in a heartbeat..

Right? 15”? Sign me up lol 

[PhineasC]

Relying on a "heavy rain to CCB snows as the low departs" scenario is likely to be a heartbreaker. 

[midatlanticweather]

So.. What should we be looking for to see it trend better? 

Better 50/50? 

Closes off 850 sooner? 

Further south track? 

All the above? 

This thing is bleeding westward at an alarming rate since yesterday. We have had some glimpses of hope in an otherwise telltale sign. 

 

[T. August]

i want snow please

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Relying on a "heavy rain to CCB snows as the low departs" scenario is likely to be a heartbreaker. 

That worked out for me once for that cold storm back in like 2005.  Other than that it never seems to materialize.

[jayyy]

Hoping for a good 50-75 mile jog east for my friends down in Baltimore and dc! Rooting for you guys!

[WinterWxLuvr]

One thing that isn’t being mentioned is how the gfs seems to get a little bit drier each run

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

So.. What should we be looking for to see it trend better? 

Better 50/50? 

Closes off 850 sooner? 

Further south track? 

All the above? 

This thing is bleeding westward at an alarming rate since yesterday. We have had some glimpses of hope in an otherwise telltale sign. 

 

Couple more runs and the low will be over the chesapeake.  Will that at least make the rain more wind driven?  Maybe we can at least lose power to make it a bit more exciting.  

[aldie 22]

I suspect we have been tracking this potential for way too long now. 

[PhineasC]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

One thing that isn’t being mentioned is how the gfs seems to get a little bit drier each run

I mentioned it at 18z yesterday. I was told the models still had enough precip to support December 2009 totals across the land. LOL

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Relying on a "heavy rain to CCB snows as the low departs" scenario is likely to be a heartbreaker. 

We do snow chasing rain good once every half decade here it seems. In recent memory 1/26/2011 and 3/5/2015 are prime examples. Although those share basically no similarities, 1/26 was ULL swinging in and 3/5 was an Arctic airmass. So yeah, we're screwed lol

[BristowWx]

38 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

 What do you think about our area  On Wednesday?

 

I think we get a period of snow that accumulates on the grass that mixes with sleet and rain...I go over to plain rain with sleet mixed in by around dinner time and then all goes back to snow and ends by 10pm and we get 1-2 inches of slush.   We initially get a watch that gets converted to a WWA tomorrow.  And we hope for another event and do it all over again.  

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

So.. What should we be looking for to see it trend better? 

Better 50/50? 

Closes off 850 sooner? 

Further south track? 

All the above? 

This thing is bleeding westward at an alarming rate since yesterday. We have had some glimpses of hope in an otherwise telltale sign. 

 

cooler waters lol.  i think we're just dealing with a mid-dec coastal versus january.  emotions aside, the solution is pretty reasonable.  on the plus side, it's not going to take much to shift the r/s line southeast.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

One thing that isn’t being mentioned is how the gfs seems to get a little bit drier each run

Agreed. Only 1.1 QPF for the event out here. 

[jayyy]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

That worked out for me once for that cold storm back in like 2005.  Other than that it never seems to materialize.

Believe it was around Christmas 2005. A cold driving rain turned over to 6+“ of heavy snow in a 8-10 hour window. Not sure I’ve seen a storm where 850s crashed as quickly as with that storm. A classic no doubt!

[ers-wxman1]

Not much left to go on with this one. Euro will come in line with the other guidance. 500 pattern is another clue...a few days ago it showed the H5 low closing off and deepening coming across, now it’s just a progressive vigorous wave that gets going too late, no phasing where we need it then sweeps OTS. Cold high pushes out faster and we are left with screaming E-SE flow aloft which even in a strong CAA setup would make things tough. Marginal setup such as this nails the coffin shut. I-95, cities all rain, few flakes to start. You will have to go well west and north for anything substantial...I-81, 15, 68, north of 70 to the M/D line. Perhaps advisory level to IAD, but mix to rain even there. 
 

 

 

[WesternFringe]

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I thought the 6z op run was ok but the eps was kinda ugly. A LOT of inside runners that track the low pretty far up the bay before the turn east.  This was the first ensemble run where I cringed when I looked at the slp plots. 

 

Not trying to be a weenie (just comes naturally) but don't the ops carry more weight than the ensembles at this range?

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I suspect we have been tracking this potential for way too long now. 

I agree. It’s not even fun.

Im gonna ride the euro the rest of the way

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, H2O said:

First, last, third, its all for fun call

 

I’m so close to cool

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

One thing that isn’t being mentioned is how the gfs seems to get a little bit drier each run

12z today for 18z thurs 24 hour precip, versus 00z last night for same time. 

I see a different spatial distribution especially comparing north of M/D to south. I like being centered just outside DC in that 1.5 inch zone..prob is its looking increasingly liek a chunk of that will be rain/sleet :-(

 

[snowfan]

When is the inevitable crushing run right before the show starts?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Can someone smart explain the lp difference here? Seems to be in a more realistic spot given the GEFS support. 

Won't claim to be smart (hahaha!).  But just eyeballing that, the difference appears to be subtle.  Notice at 06Z, there is a western low center right along the Delmarva and another one to the east.  The "eastern" one looks stronger (1000 mb), maybe the GFS keyed more on that at that time?  At 12Z, the same thing...a "western" and "eastern" center.  But in that case, the western center is stronger...in fact quite a bit stronger (992 mb), and the eastern low is farther out and weaker.

[chris21]

1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Not much left to go on with this one. Euro will come in line with the other guidance. 500 pattern is another clue...a few days ago it showed the H5 low closing off and deepening coming across, now it’s just a progressive vigorous wave that gets going too late, no phasing where we need it then sweeps OTS. Cold high pushes out faster and we are left with screaming E-SE flow aloft which even in a strong CAA setup would make things tough. Marginal setup such as this nails the coffin shut. I-95, cities all rain, few flakes to start. You will have to go well west and north for anything substantial...I-81, 15, 68, north of 70 to the M/D line. Perhaps advisory level to IAD, but mix to rain even there. 
 

 

 

No snow on the backside?

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I mentioned it at 18z yesterday. I was told the models still had enough precip to support December 2009 totals across the land. LOL

you mentioned it again at 00z. was noticeable then too

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Not much left to go on with this one. Euro will come in line with the other guidance. 500 pattern is another clue...a few days ago it showed the H5 low closing off and deepening coming across, now it’s just a progressive vigorous wave that gets going too late, no phasing where we need it then sweeps OTS. Cold high pushes out faster and we are left with screaming E-SE flow aloft which even in a strong CAA setup would make things tough. Marginal setup such as this nails the coffin shut. I-95, cities all rain, few flakes to start. You will have to go well west and north for anything substantial...I-81, 15, 68, north of 70 to the M/D line. Perhaps advisory level to IAD, but mix to rain even there. 
 

 

 

damn dude that's harsh

[ers-wxman1]

Just now, chris21 said:

No snow on the backside?

Wet snow with temps in the mid 30s, hardly much to get excited about if you are not in those favored areas. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Ok so I didn’t notice it but if you go back 48 hours it’s really noticeable 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

you mentioned it again at 00z. was noticeable then too

This feels like a very sloppy 4-10 across the area kind of thing to me. A pretty classic event for the region, actually. We don't get these types of standard-issue events much anymore.

[Yeoman]

2 minutes ago, chris21 said:

No snow on the backside?

We're no good at analfront snows