SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Scraff said: GFS... If you believe it, it still wants to change us back over to heavy snow by 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: you guys are not looking at the overall pattern.. which favors lower temp profiles.. March 2013 was a completely different set up. At 12Z Wednesday temps are in the low 20s throughout central PA and the core of the cold air mass is the coldest temps Eastern North America has seen so far this winter. We have a ~1040 HP system forcing that cold air mass in to our area.. I keep saying this.. but I really think we over-perform with temps! Unfortunately, it really doesn't matter if the low placement is coming up through NC and VA and rolling toward the mouth of the bay. That's too close. It needs to be around or off Hatteras and then off OCMD. It seems models are trending toward bringing it over land and due north toward us. That's going to drive in tons of warm air and it will be game, set, match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 although panel 66 looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: If you believe it, it still wants to change us back over to heavty snow by 66. I want some deform love... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a.salt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 So, the good news from the GFS is: 1) ever so slightly quicker onset 2) 850 track is off the coast 3) it still likes the backside deformation band 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 To those of you that said CAD tends to be under-modeled, let this be a lesson. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 goodness can we let the damn thing run before saying it sucks? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: So, the good news from the GFS is: 1) ever so slightly quicker onset 2) 850 track is off the coast 3) it still likes the backside deformation band Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Next!...winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: goodness can we let the damn thing run before saying it sucks? It is not nearly as good as the 6z... you could see that early on the H5 maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I think we all win somewhat in that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: goodness can we let the damn thing run before saying it sucks? Silly @mappy - You really think people here can be rational? Big reason I just stay quiet during most model run style threads - I know I'll read something wrong...I'll stick to spamming the forum during severe season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Would have to see temp panels but really surprise it starts as rain for a bunch of us. The low is tucked in more than last run, but it's still off the coast. That's a fine position for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: To those of you that said CAD tends to be under-modeled, let this be a lesson. Yeah but that's not exactly of importance here. That works for Arctic airmasses with a guaranteed front end thump (President's Day 2016, Feb 21 2015 for example). Those were cold temp days with dews in the single digits for most before precip. Here we have an iffy airmass (albeit pretty good for December standards), and precip is running alongside temps. By the time precip is on our doorstep, we're already close to changeover regardless of CAD or not. If we had a mid-winter airmass with precip going directly under us then yeah I'd side with the CAD argument, but that doesn't matter here it seems 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Interstate said: It is not nearly as good as the 6z... you could see that early on the H5 maps. i still get snow. so works for me. some of yall need to have realistic expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Boooo.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: To those of you that said CAD tends to be under-modeled, let this be a lesson. Not sure you can make declaration until aftwrward...we're still 48-72 hours away from seeing what actually happens. And just because something has a TENDENCY, doesn't mean it happens 100% of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Can someone smart explain the lp difference here? Seems to be in a more realistic spot given the GEFS support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, mappy said: i still get snow. so works for me. some of yall need to have realistic expectations. Yep but a couple more moves like that and you won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, mappy said: i still get snow. so works for me. some of yall need to have realistic expectations. You'll get some snow on top of some slushy puddles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Good point. The problem, though, is that it really comes together so late that we don't get a huge benefit from it sliding to our S anyway. Without the 850 low cranking up earlier, we are just awash in warm air advection. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Interstate said: Yep but a couple more moves like that and you won't. Just now, DCAlexandria said: You'll get some snow on top of some slushy puddles thanks guys, what would i do without your expert analysis. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Cobalt said: Can someone smart explain the lp difference here? Seems to be in a more realistic spot given the GEFS support. I don’t know if anyone noticed but the low is also 8mb stronger, so that wouldn’t hurt us here at that latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, MN Transplant said: The problem, though, is that it really comes together so late that we don't get a huge benefit from it sliding to our S anyway. Without the 850 low cranking up earlier, we are just awash in warm air advection. Those SE winds are pretty brutal. I'd just like to get the grass covered with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: Boooo.... Personally, I’d lock that the F up in a heartbeat.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Can someone smart explain the lp difference here? Seems to be in a more realistic spot given the GEFS support. The 12Z is about 75 miles to the west of the 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Solutions converging on the NAM from yesterday? I thought it was a POS? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40westwx said: The 12Z is about 75 miles to the west of the 6Z Also about 8mb stronger than the 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: To those of you that said CAD tends to be under-modeled, let this be a lesson. How about we wait before you bless us with lessons. And CAD doesn’t usually apply in situations where lows run the Piedmont 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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