Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12z GFS is the best case scenario given this setup for lowlanders west of the bay. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 HoCo bullseye. Lock it the F UP! 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Crazy cut off from 12+ and no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Might be a scenario where the GFS UHI is too aggressive 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Wow, crushed for sure! This looks like best case scenario. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS UHI is always amped 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Canadian up next, would love to see it improve at least as much as the 12Z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 We keep going 2 for 2 with GFs and CMC and then euro kills it. We need a 3 for 3 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Wow, crushed for sure! This looks like best case scenario. I'm trusting the people who say it's our best case scenario -- we definitely get crushed in the CCB -- but the MSLP took a pretty decent jump westward. I'd still think, at least from a temp profile perspective, we could do better if we could get things to push a little more SE. That said, I'd trade 8" of meh rates for the shot of the end of that GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS CCB NSFW 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Pretty much locked in now that this will be my first 10+ inch storm since 2016. I had 9 inches from the March 2018 storm. And nothing else over 4 inches in the 4 year span. That is a crazy drought for out here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Low position is ideal...but maybe it's TT algorithms, but I'm raining at 84 I haven’t seen the soundings for this run yet but the gfs has been aggressive punching a surface or near surface warm layer right up the Potomac. More so then any other guidance when compared to track. It’s there on other guidance but not as aggressive. It’s fairly short lived once the low starts to turn NE and bomb and the CCB deform takes over and heights crash under the upper level Centers. Maybe it’s overdone. I’ve seen the GFS run warm near the surface. We also know how DC rolls though so I never assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Wow, crushed for sure! This looks like best case scenario. Not hating that jackpot zone 20 miles SW of me...that means incoming fatties of epicness. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: I haven’t seen the soundings for this run yet but the gfs has been aggressive punching a surface or near surface warm layer right up the Potomac. More so then any other guidance when compared to track. It’s there on other guidance but not as aggressive. It’s fairly short lived once the low starts to turn NE and bomb and the CCB deform takes over and heights crash under the upper level Centers. Maybe it’s overdone. I’ve seen the GFS run warm near the surface. We also know how DC rolls though so I never assume. It’s tiny but I’d think with rates we could at least fight off rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Might be a scenario where the GFS UHI is too aggressive UHI is really tricky for the models to predict. Either underdone or overdone most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The gradient along the R-S line looks to be razor sharp. If I get 4" in my yard a 10 mile drive in either direction may go from zero to 10". All comes down to the deformation band over here. Looks to weaken as it translates E/NE on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1.5 to 2 inches total precip throughout the area on the GFS. No lack of moisture for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridgie04 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said: I would enjoy a nice peaceful snow and I am rooting for it to occur , prior years I would be stressed over every model run.... but after this past Sept its just not the same.... lost a child.. So very, very sorry for your loss and hope you and your family are doing as well as could ever be expected 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GEFS held serve. Beautiful verbatim, 12z: 06z: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 That hard right turn of the coastal low is critical for eastern areas. Need it to happen a tad sooner/further south, instead of over OC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I also liked seeing GFS bump up QPF totals for the mountains and starting to clue in some upslope as the coastal pulls away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS held serve. Beautiful verbatim, 12z: 06z: This is epic for an ensemble run. Wow. I agree with the others a SE jog wouldn’t hurt anyone. Then most of us get paid 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS held serve. Beautiful verbatim, 12z: 06z: Looks quite similar, going by the overall "shape" and coverage. Biggest difference is that the amounts are noticeably bumped up (whatever it's worth, on these maps!)...presumably due to the enhanced CCB at 12Z vs. 06Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Beautiful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Might be a scenario where the GFS UHI is too aggressive Absolutely. I'm a huge fan of the positive snow depth change as an alternative to the 10:1 maps, but they absolutely are driven by soil type and especially soil temperature; they tend to be a bit underdone early or late in the season when the ground temps have been warm for a few days. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The Canadian has the CCB further northeast. It’s colder initially than GFS but still mixes and it just doesn’t have the crazy CCB for us that theGFS has. South PA gets slammed though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB GEFS individual members....(grocery store panic in Frederick county has begun as I return home) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12Z GEM pulls the low into southern DE @ 84, clear west shift which isn't good for I95 corridor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12z CMC definitely disappoints after seeing the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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