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December 16/17 Winter Event


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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

A lot of wishcasting going on in here. If the NAM showed a mauling for the area you would all accept it, but because it is not, it’s out of its wheel house and should be tossed. No, it should not be tossed! It is giving you hints as to the evolution of the pattern. 
 

For one, the airmass regardless of the High setup is marginal at best! It is a CAD but not impressive and not Insitu. The low track is not ideal. This has been screaming fast changeover for the cities for days and even the immediate suburbs will mix or changeover. This is an I-81 to 68, 15 from northern Loudoun to the PA border heavy snow event. Rest of us from west to east mix and even go to rain closer into toward Fairfax. Writing has been on the wall for three days. 

 

This is the most honest thing that will be posted in this thread within the next 48 hours.

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

A lot of wishcasting going on in here. If the NAM showed a mauling for the area you would all accept it, but because it is not, it’s out of its wheel house and should be tossed. No, it should not be tossed! It is giving you hints as to the evolution of the pattern. 
 

For one, the airmass regardless of the High setup is marginal at best! It is a CAD but not impressive and not Insitu. The low track is not ideal. This has been screaming fast changeover for the cities for days and even the immediate suburbs will mix or changeover. This is an I-81 to 68, 15 from northern Loudoun to the PA border heavy snow event. Rest of us from west to east mix and even go to rain closer into toward Fairfax. Writing has been on the wall for three days. 

 

Agree, of course. It's a hard setup to accept as the cut off is brutal. It's still early in the year, I only hope it's not a portent of things to come.

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54 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

he’s taking the NAM seriously when it’s out of useful range.

The NAM looks fairly close to the Global Models... which only lends itself to the fact that we have very good agreement in the models. 

While I understand that being close to the R/S line will result in big differences in terms of total snowfall with only small changes in track, It is silly to stress out over small run to run details... 

I would be looking for any last minute major adjustments of the models that will lead to significant bust or boom.. otherwise.. this is all just noise

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Just now, Scraff said:

Don’t hug the ICON Beltway and I95 crew. I’m ready for a big league model in 13 minutes...

IDK we are getting close now.  We don’t have to hug it but can’t ust toss anything less than favorable.  Better to just toss our previous thoughts and hopes and analyze what’s coming in now while considering the sources, efficacy and biases.  

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The NAM is a problem.. While I do not trust the NAM output for QPF amounts, I do trust it for keys to temp profiles (especially CAD) and low placement. We always have the "We got NAM'd" comments when the precip goes nuts! The key take away from this is, Does the temp profile support snow? I think @ers-wxman1 made great points! I just want to see better trends, but the trends of these 12z models could set the tone for the rest! We need to see the Bernie Rano windshield wiper effect start to go the other way! Otherwise, if it does creep back south and east,  it has too far to swing! 

 

 

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Just now, BristowWx said:

IDK we are getting close now.  We don’t have to hug it but can’t ust toss anything less than favorable.  Better to just toss our previous thoughts and hopes and analyze what’s coming in now while considering the sources, efficacy and biases.  

 What do you think about our area  On Wednesday?

 

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17 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Not to jinx this, but I don't recall an instance where we truly got a major storm (12"+) out here and DC got next to zilch.  As depicted, such a sharp cutoff seems not likely.  

I agree. I’ve seen a number of modeled storms over the years where my old home just north of the Balt beltway would get 8”+ while Wes got next to nothing.

In reality it almost never happens.

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

IDK we are getting close now.  We don’t have to hug it but can’t ust toss anything less than favorable.  Better to just toss our previous thoughts and hopes and analyze what’s coming in now while considering the sources, efficacy and biases.  

Oh I agree. We just need the big 3 models to come together again at 12z to really give us a more legit picture. Next few hours could be forum dividing. Fingers crossed it’s not and everyone wins...

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The gradient even within the inner and outer (if-they-formally existed) Beltways could also be interesting. But frankly, in all my years of living in Washington, there have not been a lot of times where I lived downtown and was super jealous because someone in middle or lower Montgomery County  or Fairfax County got a lot more snow than I did. There was a big storm around 2004 where DC got like 4 inches of snow and Columbia in Howard County got like 24 inches.  There was also that March bust storm a few years ago where DC got almost nothing while parts of Fairfax may have gotten 6 inches. 

But those seem rather rare, lately, in part because may the suburbs are becoming denser and warmer too. DC versus upper Montgomery/Frederick/Carroll/Loudoun/Northern Baltimore County is a different situation.

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2 minutes ago, Zdudswx said:

The icon has temperatures staying below freezing and upper 20s up to the md/pa border but sends the r/s line up to almost southern pa. I don’t buy that at all. Let’s wait for the gfs 

ICON maps on TT do not show mix. So when it shows rain over your house with temps in the upper 20s, that's either sleet or ZR. I assume that is what its causing the confusion.

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