eyewall Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I am trying to decide on a chase location. I was thinking Winchester, VA but not sure if that will even be too close to the mix right now. I don't want to have to go all the way to Harrsburg, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Okay....so if that were stronger...would it somehow prevent the low from getting as "tucked in" as we've been seeing? (just trying to visualize this here, lol) It also depends on positioning. Stronger would add resistance to gaining latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: A lot of wishcasting going on in here. If the NAM showed a mauling for the area you would all accept it, but because it is not, it’s out of its wheel house and should be tossed. No, it should not be tossed! It is giving you hints as to the evolution of the pattern. For one, the airmass regardless of the High setup is marginal at best! It is a CAD but not impressive and not Insitu. The low track is not ideal. This has been screaming fast changeover for the cities for days and even the immediate suburbs will mix or changeover. This is an I-81 to 68, 15 from northern Loudoun to the PA border heavy snow event. Rest of us from west to east mix and even go to rain closer into toward Fairfax. Writing has been on the wall for three days. This is the most honest thing that will be posted in this thread within the next 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: A lot of wishcasting going on in here. If the NAM showed a mauling for the area you would all accept it, but because it is not, it’s out of its wheel house and should be tossed. No, it should not be tossed! It is giving you hints as to the evolution of the pattern. For one, the airmass regardless of the High setup is marginal at best! It is a CAD but not impressive and not Insitu. The low track is not ideal. This has been screaming fast changeover for the cities for days and even the immediate suburbs will mix or changeover. This is an I-81 to 68, 15 from northern Loudoun to the PA border heavy snow event. Rest of us from west to east mix and even go to rain closer into toward Fairfax. Writing has been on the wall for three days. Agree, of course. It's a hard setup to accept as the cut off is brutal. It's still early in the year, I only hope it's not a portent of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 If Winchester mixes, everyone east is screwed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 54 minutes ago, wxtrix said: he’s taking the NAM seriously when it’s out of useful range. The NAM looks fairly close to the Global Models... which only lends itself to the fact that we have very good agreement in the models. While I understand that being close to the R/S line will result in big differences in terms of total snowfall with only small changes in track, It is silly to stress out over small run to run details... I would be looking for any last minute major adjustments of the models that will lead to significant bust or boom.. otherwise.. this is all just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: If Winchester mixes, everyone east is screwed. If Winchester mixes, I'm building an ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 ICON is doing no favors on the H5 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Don’t hug the ICON Beltway and I95 crew. I’m ready for a big league model in 13 minutes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, wxtrix said: i’m in the mauling zone and i’m still tossing the NAM at this point. If you are in Winchester you’ll have no worries regardless. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Scraff said: Don’t hug the ICON Beltway and I95 crew. I’m ready for a big league model in 13 minutes... IDK we are getting close now. We don’t have to hug it but can’t ust toss anything less than favorable. Better to just toss our previous thoughts and hopes and analyze what’s coming in now while considering the sources, efficacy and biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The NAM is a problem.. While I do not trust the NAM output for QPF amounts, I do trust it for keys to temp profiles (especially CAD) and low placement. We always have the "We got NAM'd" comments when the precip goes nuts! The key take away from this is, Does the temp profile support snow? I think @ers-wxman1 made great points! I just want to see better trends, but the trends of these 12z models could set the tone for the rest! We need to see the Bernie Rano windshield wiper effect start to go the other way! Otherwise, if it does creep back south and east, it has too far to swing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Don’t hug the ICON Beltway and I95 crew. I’m ready for a big league model in 13 minutes... It's not even that great for the far northern crew. Have to get to the MD/PA border to get decent accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: IDK we are getting close now. We don’t have to hug it but can’t ust toss anything less than favorable. Better to just toss our previous thoughts and hopes and analyze what’s coming in now while considering the sources, efficacy and biases. What do you think about our area On Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Not to jinx this, but I don't recall an instance where we truly got a major storm (12"+) out here and DC got next to zilch. As depicted, such a sharp cutoff seems not likely. I agree. I’ve seen a number of modeled storms over the years where my old home just north of the Balt beltway would get 8”+ while Wes got next to nothing. In reality it almost never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: IDK we are getting close now. We don’t have to hug it but can’t ust toss anything less than favorable. Better to just toss our previous thoughts and hopes and analyze what’s coming in now while considering the sources, efficacy and biases. Oh I agree. We just need the big 3 models to come together again at 12z to really give us a more legit picture. Next few hours could be forum dividing. Fingers crossed it’s not and everyone wins... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 FWIW the ICON never gets the cities above freezing for the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The icon has temperatures staying below freezing and upper 20s up to the md/pa border but sends the r/s line up to almost southern pa. I don’t buy that at all. Let’s wait for the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 RGEM came NW a little. Not as good as 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Fozz said: I agree. I’ve seen a number of modeled storms where my old home would get 8”+ while Wes got next to nothing. In reality it almost never happens. Agreed... I’ve seen it early and late in the year, but def not in late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Zdudswx said: The icon has temperatures staying below freezing and upper 20s up to the md/pa border but sends the r/s line up to almost southern pa. I don’t buy that at all. Let’s wait for the gfs It doesn't account for frozen. Any sleet or zr is shown as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The gradient even within the inner and outer (if-they-formally existed) Beltways could also be interesting. But frankly, in all my years of living in Washington, there have not been a lot of times where I lived downtown and was super jealous because someone in middle or lower Montgomery County or Fairfax County got a lot more snow than I did. There was a big storm around 2004 where DC got like 4 inches of snow and Columbia in Howard County got like 24 inches. There was also that March bust storm a few years ago where DC got almost nothing while parts of Fairfax may have gotten 6 inches. But those seem rather rare, lately, in part because may the suburbs are becoming denser and warmer too. DC versus upper Montgomery/Frederick/Carroll/Loudoun/Northern Baltimore County is a different situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Zdudswx said: The icon has temperatures staying below freezing and upper 20s up to the md/pa border but sends the r/s line up to almost southern pa. I don’t buy that at all. Let’s wait for the gfs ICON maps on TT do not show mix. So when it shows rain over your house with temps in the upper 20s, that's either sleet or ZR. I assume that is what its causing the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The RGEM and ICON paint this thing as basically a sleet bomb for the I-95 corridor now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: RGEM came NW a little. Not as good as 06z. Sure did. Meaningfully less snow inside the beltway for sure but temps are still pretty cold, so a decent amount of mix and not a complete washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 THE GFS HAS BEGUN 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 NAM/ RGEM / ICON show the low heading due north from coastal NC straight up into the Delmarva. Not what we want to see. Need that thing to slide off the coast east of OC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Climo doing the climo thing in December. Shocked The 12z varsity op runs will be telling. Good luck everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Nice place for us. I thought the 6z op run was ok but the eps was kinda ugly. A LOT of inside runners that track the low pretty far up the bay before the turn east. This was the first ensemble run where I cringed when I looked at the slp plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS looking good so far! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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