WesternFringe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, mappy said: she doesn't live in a warm part of the subforum, she's out west in WVA. Which was her point. Many forget that we have members who live in WVA Or who live at higher elevations in western VA, like me. I agree with her that I am not ready to give up on this storm when the GFS and Euro still paste me with 13"+. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now I am legit wondering about that and the whole 50/50 thing...now does the 50/50 influence track too? Or just temperatures? The 50/50 affects the confluence above/ahead of the storm, so, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 PBP Icon confluence a bit better @ 21h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Or who live at higher elevations in western VA, like me. I agree with her that I am not ready to give up on this storm when the GFS and Euro still paste me with 13"+. Although only in the 5-10 range on the models, me neither lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: The 50/50 affects the confluence above/ahead of the storm, so, yes. Okay....so if that were stronger...would it somehow prevent the low from getting as "tucked in" as we've been seeing? (just trying to visualize this here, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Not to jinx this, but I don't recall an instance where we truly got a major storm (12"+) out here and DC got next to zilch. As depicted, such a sharp cutoff seems not likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Okay....so if that were stronger...would it somehow prevent the low from getting as "tucked in" as we've been seeing? (just trying to visualize this here, lol) It would allow for better thermals at least that’s part of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now I am legit wondering about that and the whole 50/50 thing...now does the 50/50 influence track too? Or just temperatures? Nothing with this storm is set in stone. This is a factor, but like others have noted there are lots of factors coming together. Well maybe the MOCO death band is set in stone lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Icon is NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 A lot of wishcasting going on in here. If the NAM showed a mauling for the area you would all accept it, but because it is not, it’s out of its wheel house and should be tossed. No, it should not be tossed! It is giving you hints as to the evolution of the pattern. For one, the airmass regardless of the High setup is marginal at best! It is a CAD but not impressive and not Insitu. The low track is not ideal. This has been screaming fast changeover for the cities for days and even the immediate suburbs will mix or changeover. This is an I-81 to 68, 15 from northern Loudoun to the PA border, north of I-70 heavy snow event. Rest of us from west to east mix and even go to rain closer in toward Fairfax. Writing has been on the wall for three days. 11 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I am trying to decide on a chase location. I was thinking Winchester, VA but not sure if that will even be too close to the mix right now. I don't want to have to go all the way to Harrsburg, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Okay....so if that were stronger...would it somehow prevent the low from getting as "tucked in" as we've been seeing? (just trying to visualize this here, lol) It also depends on positioning. Stronger would add resistance to gaining latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: A lot of wishcasting going on in here. If the NAM showed a mauling for the area you would all accept it, but because it is not, it’s out of its wheel house and should be tossed. No, it should not be tossed! It is giving you hints as to the evolution of the pattern. For one, the airmass regardless of the High setup is marginal at best! It is a CAD but not impressive and not Insitu. The low track is not ideal. This has been screaming fast changeover for the cities for days and even the immediate suburbs will mix or changeover. This is an I-81 to 68, 15 from northern Loudoun to the PA border heavy snow event. Rest of us from west to east mix and even go to rain closer into toward Fairfax. Writing has been on the wall for three days. This is the most honest thing that will be posted in this thread within the next 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: A lot of wishcasting going on in here. If the NAM showed a mauling for the area you would all accept it, but because it is not, it’s out of its wheel house and should be tossed. No, it should not be tossed! It is giving you hints as to the evolution of the pattern. For one, the airmass regardless of the High setup is marginal at best! It is a CAD but not impressive and not Insitu. The low track is not ideal. This has been screaming fast changeover for the cities for days and even the immediate suburbs will mix or changeover. This is an I-81 to 68, 15 from northern Loudoun to the PA border heavy snow event. Rest of us from west to east mix and even go to rain closer into toward Fairfax. Writing has been on the wall for three days. Agree, of course. It's a hard setup to accept as the cut off is brutal. It's still early in the year, I only hope it's not a portent of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 If Winchester mixes, everyone east is screwed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 54 minutes ago, wxtrix said: he’s taking the NAM seriously when it’s out of useful range. The NAM looks fairly close to the Global Models... which only lends itself to the fact that we have very good agreement in the models. While I understand that being close to the R/S line will result in big differences in terms of total snowfall with only small changes in track, It is silly to stress out over small run to run details... I would be looking for any last minute major adjustments of the models that will lead to significant bust or boom.. otherwise.. this is all just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: If Winchester mixes, everyone east is screwed. If Winchester mixes, I'm building an ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 ICON is doing no favors on the H5 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Don’t hug the ICON Beltway and I95 crew. I’m ready for a big league model in 13 minutes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, wxtrix said: i’m in the mauling zone and i’m still tossing the NAM at this point. If you are in Winchester you’ll have no worries regardless. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Scraff said: Don’t hug the ICON Beltway and I95 crew. I’m ready for a big league model in 13 minutes... IDK we are getting close now. We don’t have to hug it but can’t ust toss anything less than favorable. Better to just toss our previous thoughts and hopes and analyze what’s coming in now while considering the sources, efficacy and biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The NAM is a problem.. While I do not trust the NAM output for QPF amounts, I do trust it for keys to temp profiles (especially CAD) and low placement. We always have the "We got NAM'd" comments when the precip goes nuts! The key take away from this is, Does the temp profile support snow? I think @ers-wxman1 made great points! I just want to see better trends, but the trends of these 12z models could set the tone for the rest! We need to see the Bernie Rano windshield wiper effect start to go the other way! Otherwise, if it does creep back south and east, it has too far to swing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Don’t hug the ICON Beltway and I95 crew. I’m ready for a big league model in 13 minutes... It's not even that great for the far northern crew. Have to get to the MD/PA border to get decent accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: IDK we are getting close now. We don’t have to hug it but can’t ust toss anything less than favorable. Better to just toss our previous thoughts and hopes and analyze what’s coming in now while considering the sources, efficacy and biases. What do you think about our area On Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Not to jinx this, but I don't recall an instance where we truly got a major storm (12"+) out here and DC got next to zilch. As depicted, such a sharp cutoff seems not likely. I agree. I’ve seen a number of modeled storms over the years where my old home just north of the Balt beltway would get 8”+ while Wes got next to nothing. In reality it almost never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: IDK we are getting close now. We don’t have to hug it but can’t ust toss anything less than favorable. Better to just toss our previous thoughts and hopes and analyze what’s coming in now while considering the sources, efficacy and biases. Oh I agree. We just need the big 3 models to come together again at 12z to really give us a more legit picture. Next few hours could be forum dividing. Fingers crossed it’s not and everyone wins... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 FWIW the ICON never gets the cities above freezing for the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The icon has temperatures staying below freezing and upper 20s up to the md/pa border but sends the r/s line up to almost southern pa. I don’t buy that at all. Let’s wait for the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 RGEM came NW a little. Not as good as 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Fozz said: I agree. I’ve seen a number of modeled storms where my old home would get 8”+ while Wes got next to nothing. In reality it almost never happens. Agreed... I’ve seen it early and late in the year, but def not in late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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