Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said: The usual caveats with a NAM at 57, but it is slightly colder at the surface in the cities this run. Low is still in the same general area as last few runs. the NAM used to run to 48 hours probably for a reason 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 WB 12Z NAM 7pm Wed. Also cooler compared to 6Z. And falls SE of DC by 10 pm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: the NAM used to run to 48 hours probably for a reason Yeah, this map is just a disaster for too many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: the NAM used to run to 48 hours probably for a reason The 12K NAM was replaced by the 3k NAM several years ago for a reason. The 3k is probably worth looking at starting with tomorrow's 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12km, so not as useful as the incoming 3km, but the run was better. Low is still too far NW but not running up the bay like in 06z. Snow totals still bad. Looks like mostly sleet in the totals on tropical tidbits. But a tick in the right direction, even for a less useful model is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Why do people still look at the model that is supposed to be retired? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Ha, the temps looked much better on the NAM, and then the simulated radar was a dumpster fire. Didn't really seem to line up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Just ignore the 12k and wait for the 3k to get into range. It’s a better performer. 3k tracks the low west of Norfolk too. 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z NAM 7pm Wed. Also cooler compared to 6Z. And falls SE of DC by 10 pm Problem is that the 850 low runs north of DC. There is a realistic potential that areas inside the DC Beltway get non-accumulating snow on the front end and miss the deformation on the back end. Trace is absolutely in play. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Quasievil said: Yeah, this map is just a disaster for too many. actually its very encourgaging because it made a big shift to the right from 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Why do people still look at the model that is supposed to be retired? Should be planning lessons, but killing time before my next class instead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Montgomery County Exec proposing new restriction to go into effect Tuesday at 5 p.m. if approved limiting retail store capacity to 150 total. There could be BIG lines for grocery stores that night! Man I can't wait for this afternoon's Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: actually its very encourgaging because it made a big shift to the right from 6z Might be out by Bermuda by tomorrow's 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Dabuckeyes said: Should be planning lessons, but killing time before my next class instead Waiting for the models that aren't retired. #bored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: The usual caveats with a NAM at 57, but it is slightly colder at the surface in the cities this run. Low is still in the same general area as last few runs. the coastal is developing in a good spot on the nam, but it's moving due north whereas the gfs is off the coast. assuming the off the coast idea is correct, i would think the nam adjusts further se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 3k tracks the low west of Norfolk too. Problem is that the 850 low runs north of DC. There is a realistic potential that areas inside the DC Beltway get non-accumulating snow on the front end and miss the deformation on the back end. Trace is absolutely in play. Looking forward to your obs, seriously. They always make me feel glad about where I live. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This storm has bust written all over it. Heck I probably won't even get an inch of rain. Wood frogs were calling yesterday at my house, they think it's March already. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, IronTy said: This storm has bust written all over it. Heck I probably won't even get an inch of rain. Wood frogs were calling yesterday at my house, they think it's March already. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Not so much west as north. It depends where the low sets up. Pretty good agreement from the euro/gfs that is gonna be Front Royal and north. I know the guys to the east want the low further east. But for us a track over Norfolk is ideal. OMG, I’m finally a cool kid! Waited forever for this!Great map, CL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, IronTy said: This storm has bust written all over it. Heck I probably won't even get an inch of rain. Wood frogs were calling yesterday at my house, they think it's March already. Sorry IronTy -- I grew up a few miles south of Dunkirk and know all about southern MD heartbreak. Once my job locked in DC I started shopping for a NW area. My family is still all there and they have fun with me when southern MD gets a big hit that I miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Weenie rule #347 - wait for the current torrential rain storm to clear the area before the models have a good grasp on the next storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Filled out a couple more squares. Might’ve missed an Eskimo Joe “meh.” 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I thought the H5 was a huge improvement on the 12z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Filled out a couple more squares. Might’ve missed an Eskimo Joe “meh.” Someone earlier referenced needing a Jan 2000-like miracle...... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 just reading this thread...i cant believe how many people live inside the beltway 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Someone earlier referenced needing a Jan 2000-like miracle......Updated. I’m also gonna say that we’ve hit the “it never snows in December” line. People have been tip-toeing around it but there has been plenty of the “this is bonus snow” discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Ji said: just reading this thread...i cant believe how many people live inside the beltway "i can't believe how many people live in the most densely populated center of our entire region" 3 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 One of the experts a couple of days ago said the algorithms will have trouble distinguishing between mix/ snow when there is intense precipitation and marginal temps. WB NAM may have that issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: just reading this thread...i cant believe how many people live inside the beltway Which Beltway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Filled out a couple more squares. Might’ve missed an Eskimo Joe “meh.” Wait...when was there a reference to the DGEX for this event??? Don't recall that offhand...fortunately!! Oh, and by the way, I think the NAM is just where we want it at this range, it's showing a slight improvement! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Weenie rule #347 - wait for the current torrential rain storm to clear the area before the models have a good grasp on the next storm. Now I am legit wondering about that and the whole 50/50 thing...now does the 50/50 influence track too? Or just temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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