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December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Bingo

It's over for 95 East and DC people.  It's climo.  We knew the job was dangerous when we took it. (living here).   Nobody should be angry about it.  I don't want only 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 of course, but bitching about it won't make it happen.    For the folks who aren't getting the goods, now set some reasonable expectations..2 to 4 isn't out of the question....still think it's gonna be tough with torch temps.

 

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3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Let’s just hide his posts. 

Why are you so offended by the notion that this storm isn’t our jackpot?

a) northern areas will win out 

b) still possible for Baltimore to see 6” if things align.

It’s not very complicated. And your need to attack my intelligence is both pathetic and unwarranted on a weather forum. Relax chief. Focus on your wailing ravens and less on other people’s intelligence. 

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1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

I’m definitely not one to defend @H2O but it has to be extremely annoying and frustrating when people think they know your climate better than you and on top of it a large majority of the forum gets a lot more snow than you. I would be cranky as hell. 

I'd not bother posting about Old Town Alexandria climo or conditions back in the day because the times I did and claimed profiles were going to be too warm despite the models, or it was 35 and rain when it was snowing in Chevy Chase, didn't turn out well. ;) Either way, this storm isn't going to perform in my 'hood here in Fairfax. That's OK. I could drive to a family home in east central PA but I won't because I don't want to bother putting my winter wheels on my car. A positive of little snow here. Not worth it.

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My thoughts for us western folks has not changed for 4 days. The overall setup has not changed on the models. The look is a classic for a west of the fall line foot+ snow. The only questions  for me were would the qpf be there for it and would the track support it.  The answer to both is yes. Someone is getting 2 feet from this. Both the Euro and GFS have been incredibly consistent that all of the 81 corridor north of Harrisonburg is going to get hit hard. We will see where the banding sets up. But most of us know how that usually goes. Regardless, this is going to be a historic December storm for the western tier of this forum. Early guess for me is 8-12 from Harrisonburg to Front Royal. 12+ from Front Royal to Harrisburg, PA. With 2 foot totals for some in that area. Know your climo and adjust accordingly.

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3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Let’s just hide his posts. 

I did when he replied to your insult ;) 

3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Why are you so offended by the notion that this storm isn’t our jackpot?

a) northern areas will win out 

b) still possible for Baltimore to see 6” if things align.

It’s not very complicated. And your need to attack my intelligence is both pathetic and unwarranted on a weather forum. Relax chief. 

lets move along please. 

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2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

No.  I grew up near Philly and the climo here in York is different.  Less ocean influence.  More similar to Baltimore suburbs.

Personally I'd keep this form for I-95 to I-64 folks, Mountains and foothills are just a different climate.

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Alright, big snow fan since middle school...moved up to upstate NY 3 years ago for grad school and have been consistently disappointed with the Ithaca/lower Finger Lakes region. Considering coming home to ride out this storm as a last “hooray” before I start my job in January. As much as I hate “what’s-happening-in-my-back-yard” posts, if I’m around the red dot, slightly north and west of york, I should be a lock for at least 15 right? It’s almost a 4 hour drive down and I need like at least an 85% chance to take the risk and time.

D7185FDA-A425-49C0-9AF8-4F04CA493EFB.jpeg

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17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Cautiously optimistic. We should be a prime spot.  Hoping we are not too far west to miss the CCB.

Not so much west as north. It depends where the low sets up. Pretty good agreement from the euro/gfs that is gonna be Front Royal and north. I know the guys to the east want the low further east. But for us a  track over Norfolk is ideal. 

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