WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Lowershoresadness said: was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?! Bingo 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Not based on that above snowfall map. Woof. At this range the Op runs are much prioritized and you really never should use ensembles snowmaps for prime forecasting methods. I know we all look at them but it's not what ensembles are for. Op Euro, GGEM, and GFS all give us a really nice storm. It's going to wobble back and forth a little and then come down to mesoscale/microscale features in the end like it always does on final snow amounts. But the goalposts have narrowed and stayed in place pretty much for the last 48-72 hours. There's no primary to Cleveland or Miller B screw job on the way. It's not suppressed or OTS. It's a coast-running Miller A in mid-December. Thermal gradient is more onshore than it would be in January-March due to the water temp and respectable, but unremarkable, cold airmass ahead of the storm. Give me that basic information alone and I think I could give you a snow forecast that would be pretty reasonable for most of the area... 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: it’s as if part of this subforum is completely invisible to you. It’s not my job to coddle the feelings of people who live in warmer parts of the sub forum out of snowpression. I’m being realistic here. 90+% of the forum will see advisory to warning level snowfall before winter even begins. That’s a good start, no matter the outcome in your own backyard. This storm was never going to be a jackpot for our area compared to NY NJ PA. If one gets 3-6” in Baltimore city out of this, that’s a win - no matter the “maximum potential outcome if everything aligned correctly”. We barely saw 3” total all of last winter. Perspective man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I should have stayed in bed, see things have not trended well for the south and east folks. Time to start pulling out all examples of game time miracles...and warm up rain obs. Come on we need a miracle of Jan 25 2000 proportions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, jayyy said: It’s not my job to coddle the feelings of people who live in warmer parts of the sub forum out of snowpression. I’m being realistic here. 90+% of the forum will see advisory to warning level snowfall before winter even begins. That’s a good start, no matter the outcome in your own backyard. This storm was never going to be a jackpot for our area compared to NY NJ PA. If one gets 3-6” in Baltimore city out of this, that’s a win - no matter the “maximum potential outcome if everything aligned correctly”. We barely saw 3” total all of last winter. Perspective man. she doesn't live in a warm part of the subforum, she's out west in WVA. Which was her point. Many forget that we have members who live in WVA 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: Interested to see what the GFS/ICON/EPS/RGEM do at 12z. More concerned with the trend than the verbatim solution. I'm not convinced there's any trend at all. It's wobbling back and forth for the reasons I and others have laid out. 6z Euro wobbled left, 6z RGEM wobbled right. And these moves are so small in reality, even if it did "trend" left for 4 runs, a bump right on tomorrow's 12z runs could easily happen that would put it right back where it started. This (and other reasons) is why snowfall forecasts always have ranges. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Might've been discussed a few pages back but the 06z RGEM is pretty nice for DC. Verbatim it's 5 ish hours of snow, then sleet, then back to some heavy snow before it pulls off, all with temps right at or below freezing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, mappy said: she doesn't live in a warm part of the subforum, she's out west in WVA. Which was her point. Many forget that we have members who live in WVA That’s awesome! She’s going to get walloped then? No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 49 minutes ago, wxtrix said: huh? maybe he thought the red blob was rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: ? Not sure what’s funny. Every storm that doesn’t turn into a MECS or HECS is thrashed by half of the forum. 6” in Baltimore city on 12/16 would be a great start to the winter. Expectations are always far too high. People shouldn’t have a “foot of snow or bust” mentality. It’s frankly exhausting and annoying. Even in the snowier sections of the forum. We live in Maryland. Not New York or Maine. we will likely more than double the entire snowfall total of last year before winter even begins. Take the W. Double? We could exceed last year by 400%! Everyone needs to take a breath 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, jayyy said: That’s awesome! She’s going to get walloped then? No? You're missing the point. It's fine, lets move along. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: You're missing the point. It's fine, lets move along. Let’s just hide his posts. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Bingo It's over for 95 East and DC people. It's climo. We knew the job was dangerous when we took it. (living here). Nobody should be angry about it. I don't want only 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 of course, but bitching about it won't make it happen. For the folks who aren't getting the goods, now set some reasonable expectations..2 to 4 isn't out of the question....still think it's gonna be tough with torch temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Let’s just hide his posts. Why are you so offended by the notion that this storm isn’t our jackpot? a) northern areas will win out b) still possible for Baltimore to see 6” if things align. It’s not very complicated. And your need to attack my intelligence is both pathetic and unwarranted on a weather forum. Relax chief. Focus on your wailing ravens and less on other people’s intelligence. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haudidoody Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, ravensrule said: I’m definitely not one to defend @H2O but it has to be extremely annoying and frustrating when people think they know your climate better than you and on top of it a large majority of the forum gets a lot more snow than you. I would be cranky as hell. I'd not bother posting about Old Town Alexandria climo or conditions back in the day because the times I did and claimed profiles were going to be too warm despite the models, or it was 35 and rain when it was snowing in Chevy Chase, didn't turn out well. Either way, this storm isn't going to perform in my 'hood here in Fairfax. That's OK. I could drive to a family home in east central PA but I won't because I don't want to bother putting my winter wheels on my car. A positive of little snow here. Not worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 59 minutes ago, catoctin wx said: Is it bad that I have actually considered moving to higher elevations just for this reason? My catoctin ridge rain / snow shadow can be a frustrating. Stop messing around with MD and just move to near Canada like I did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 My thoughts for us western folks has not changed for 4 days. The overall setup has not changed on the models. The look is a classic for a west of the fall line foot+ snow. The only questions for me were would the qpf be there for it and would the track support it. The answer to both is yes. Someone is getting 2 feet from this. Both the Euro and GFS have been incredibly consistent that all of the 81 corridor north of Harrisonburg is going to get hit hard. We will see where the banding sets up. But most of us know how that usually goes. Regardless, this is going to be a historic December storm for the western tier of this forum. Early guess for me is 8-12 from Harrisonburg to Front Royal. 12+ from Front Royal to Harrisburg, PA. With 2 foot totals for some in that area. Know your climo and adjust accordingly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, wxtrix said: i’m talking about the i-81 crew. good grief. Cautiously optimistic. We should be a prime spot. Hoping we are not too far west to miss the CCB. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Let’s just hide his posts. I did when he replied to your insult 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Why are you so offended by the notion that this storm isn’t our jackpot? a) northern areas will win out b) still possible for Baltimore to see 6” if things align. It’s not very complicated. And your need to attack my intelligence is both pathetic and unwarranted on a weather forum. Relax chief. lets move along please. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: and western VA and Hagerstown and Frederick. Agreed. I got you girl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Boo hoo the western crew is forgotten. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This thread is falling apart now. Cliff divers have already started jumping 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I did when he replied to your insult lets move along please. Thank you. I’m all for moving along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, LeesburgWx said: This thread is falling apart now. Cliff divers have already started jumping snow is very much an IMBY thing. People get testy when they don't get it and others do. Happens every time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Hot Take: Everyone 20 miles or more North and Weet of Baltimore belong in the Philly Forum 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I see the forum is in mid-season antagonistic form. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, mappy said: I did when he replied to your insult lets move along please. Yes Mam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, DCAlexandria said: Hot Take: Everyone 20 miles or more North and Weet of Baltimore belong in the Philly Forum No. I grew up near Philly and the climo here in York is different. Less ocean influence. More similar to Baltimore suburbs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 When I lived in Norfolk during 2010 when you all got pummeled, I came in here and complained. All I got was "Want more snow, move north." No sympathy at all for me in those days. So what did I do? I moved north to DC and then west to Leesburg. One day, I will probably end up in Boston... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: Hot Take: Everyone 20 miles or more North and Weet of Baltimore belong in the Philly Forum nah. just deal with the fact that some will get more snow than you. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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