December 16/17 Winter Event

[Fozz]

30 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I’m definitely not one to defend @H2O but it has to be extremely annoying and frustrating when people think they know your climate better than you and on top of it a large majority of the forum gets a lot more snow than you. I would be cranky as hell. 

I feel kinda bad for Wes... I hope he’s doing well but I bet he really hates this storm.

[Fozz]

27 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

this is an incendiary post.. you should be more sensitive to those south of you

Don’t be a snowflake over snowflakes.

[jayyy]

This storm is going to be insanely close on the margins. Could have a situation where folks around owings mills (N of 70 / W of 695) see 8” while folks in middle river / Essex see 2”. Difference in 50 miles in track could mean the world to folks along 95

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems like we've seen 0z/6z euro runs bump NW and then 12z runs move SE.  All-in-all, these are ultimately small differences, even if this was 24hrs before start time, but it obviously makes a big difference to most of us in snow totals.  

For sure. This has Fall Line special written all over it. Massive increases the further north and west you go with this one. Then pinning down the CCB will be another fun task. That's where the real fun totals will come out. 

[osfan24]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems like we've seen 0z/6z euro runs bump NW and then 12z runs move SE.  All-in-all, these are ultimately small differences, even if this was 24hrs before start time, but it obviously makes a big difference to most of us in snow totals.  

I keep hoping we see the Euro back off these NW pushes and get closer to the GFS solution. It will really make a huge difference for us. I've seen my totals around 16 inches on some runs with bigger totals not all that far NW of me but then closer to 8 on others with much smaller totals not that far to my SE.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

For sure. This has Fall Line special written all over it. Massive increases the further north and west you go with this one. Then pinning down the CCB will be another fun task. That's where the real fun totals will come out. 

I really, really want that CCB.  Seems like the front half of the storm is pretty well set for MBY.  3-5" of snow+sleet.  

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

That says 1-2" for me.  Tops.  Oh well.  Time to look for the next one

Yeah, this one is getting away from us.  Time to start measuring expectations here or make plans to chance west.   Still like my earlier call of 2 to 4" for beltwayers.    You can keep your dress stored away.

[ravensrule]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I really, really want that CCB.  Seems like the front half of the storm is pretty well set for MBY.  3-5" of snow+sleet.  

A Ravens win tonight and some CCB loving and I’ll be quite excited. 

[jayyy]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

For sure. This has Fall Line special written all over it. Massive increases the further north and west you go with this one. Then pinning down the CCB will be another fun task. That's where the real fun totals will come out. 

Going to be really interesting to see where that CCB sets up. It could help some places just west of 95 “catch up” a bit with their snowfall totals on the backside. I see it setting up in a spot near the R/S line. As a member of the “northern crew”, am rooting for that to occur along 95 for you folks as we seem pretty set up this way

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I keep hoping we see the Euro back off these NW pushes and get closer to the GFS solution. It will really make a huge difference for us. I've seen my totals around 16 inches on some runs with bigger totals not all that far NW of me but then closer to 8 on others with much smaller totals not that far to my SE.

Every model, even the GFS, has this baggy area of low pressure stretching from onshore to well offshore as it approaches and pass our latitude.  Where the "L" gets put on the surface map isn't always a fine science.  All comes down to how convection plays in (we really won't know this until tomorrow or Wednesday) and where the surface low starts to get stacked with the upper level energy. That later detail just keeps wobbling just onshore and just offshore.  

[Interstate]

21 minutes ago, catoctin wx said:

Is it bad that I have actually considered moving to higher elevations just for this reason?  My catoctin ridge rain / snow shadow can be a frustrating.

No. I thought about moving to Hanover or York for this reason alone. 

[jayyy]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Every model, even the GFS, has this baggy area of low pressure stretching from onshore to well offshore as it approaches and pass our latitude.  Where the "L" gets put on the surface map isn't always a fine science.  All comes down to how convection plays in (we really won't know this until tomorrow or Wednesday) and where the surface low starts to get stacked with the upper level energy. That later detail just keeps wobbling just onshore and just offshore.  

100%. And we may not know until 00z tomorrow - or perhaps until the storm arrives. There is almost zero agreement among models at h5 and the upper levels and were within 48 hours. There’s a lot of noise for these models to read through, including the energy coming through the area right now dumping cold rain on us.
 

GFS showed nearly a foot of snow in Baltimore at 6z, nearly 10” at DCA while other models only show 2-5”. Going to be insanely close for I-95.  I don’t think models have much of a grasp on what’s going on here. Somewhere between the GFS/euro seems most likely IMO. 

[blizzardmeiser]

5 minutes ago, Interstate said:

No. I thought about moving to Hanover or York for this reason alone. 

What about the 355 days of the year it doesn’t snow? 

[Heisy]

1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

What about the 355 days of the year it doesn’t snow? 

Still worth it

[H2O]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, this one is getting away from us.  Time to start measuring expectations here or make plans to chance west.   Still like my earlier call of 2 to 4" for beltwayers.    You can keep your dress stored away.

It was a lovely floral sundress too.  

We just can't do marginal events well.  Too much warm air flooding in and its no bueno when roasting at 36F even if its cold upstairs.

[frd]

13 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I keep hoping we see the Euro back off these NW pushes and get closer to the GFS solution. It will really make a huge difference for us. I've seen my totals around 16 inches on some runs with bigger totals not all that far NW of me but then closer to 8 on others with much smaller totals not that far to my SE.

Not sure if posted,  but the ECM Ensemble is ouch for many in the Southern areas. Not putting gas in the snow blower.  Again know your climo and typical progressions to avoid disappointment. This is a psu, Mappy storm, unless it is  wrong.  

 

 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps clustering tighter to the coast . Mean slp is centered just east of the Delaware bay.

Nice place for us.  

[jayyy]

4 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

What about the 355 days of the year it doesn’t snow? 

I was just about to say this. I lived in Middletown PA from 2013-2015 right outside York & Harrisburg. They were pretty good winters for that area and there were definitely storms where that area saw 3-6” as Maryland saw little to anything.... but it’s not worth the move IMO. It’s a really boring and dull area to live. Sure, it snows more in York.... but not enough to move my life back there. It was miserably boring compared to Maryland. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

It was a lovely floral sundress too.  

We just can't do marginal events well.  Too much warm air flooding in and its no bueno when roasting at 36F even if its cold upstairs.

I wouldn't count us out just yet.  We're right on that line.  If we can flip back and get under the CCB, even if not for very long, we might be very pleasantly surprised.

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, this one is getting away from us.  Time to start measuring expectations here or make plans to chance west.   Still like my earlier call of 2 to 4" for beltwayers.    You can keep your dress stored away.

Not sure if you saw, but those were 6 HR maps, not storm total. Your 2" - 4" is still looking good.

[jayyy]

This storm has had S/C PA NMD NNJ SENY and southern New England jackpot written all over it since day 1. Classic Miller A setup in the early days of winter. Someone in the corridor between Harrisburg and Philly is going to see 30” out of this. Bet on that.  

If it were January with that 1040 HP up north.... we’d all be in the game. Think some are trying to overplay the hand we’ve been dealt here. Know your climo! Especially on December 16th. 
 

that being said... this isn’t over. At all. There is absolutely zero reason to believe this storm is a done deal entirely. Yes. Baltimore isn’t getting a foot. But 6” is still very much possible. Doesn’t take much of a shift to get I-95 in on warning level snows. 

[LeesburgWx]

Are ensembles still useful this close in?

[Eskimo Joe]

I could see a few 15"+ reports in the Catoctins Mts. @catoctin wx definitely should move to Thurmont.

[chris21]

4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I wouldn't count us out just yet.  We're right on that line.  If we can flip back and get under the CCB, even if not for very long, we might be very pleasantly surprised.

Honestly, it’s a weird situation where the hills of NW DC could see twice as much or more as NE/SE DC, PG County. In 30 years, it’s actually a somewhat common scenario.

[osfan24]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Nice place for us.  

Not based on that above snowfall map. Woof.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Are ensembles still useful this close in?

Try and be ok with an awesome 6-10" storm, don't fall for the Ji 12" + or bust mindset. Those euro ensembles seem pretty reasonable for our area with around 7-9". Great storm if it happens

[jayyy]

Interested to see what the GFS/ICON/EPS/RGEM do at 12z. More concerned with the trend than the verbatim solution. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, chris21 said:

Honestly, it’s a weird situation where the hills of NW DC could see twice as much or more as NE/SE DC, PG County. In 30 years, it’s actually a somewhat common scenario.

Yeah, it's definitely going to be interesting to see how it plays out.  Either way, I'm happy to be in the game and not going to be surprised/disappointed if we don't put up big (6 inches or more) numbers. Would be very happy with an inch or two, rain/sleet. and a flip back to snow for some more minor accumulations. 

[jayyy]

3 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

lol

 ? Not sure what’s funny. Every storm that doesn’t turn into a MECS or HECS is thrashed by half of the forum. 6” in Baltimore city on 12/16 would be a great start to the winter. Expectations are always far too high. People shouldn’t have a “foot of snow or bust” mentality. It’s frankly exhausting and annoying. Even in the snowier sections of the forum. We live in Maryland. Not New York or Maine. 
 

we will likely more than double the entire snowfall total of last year before winter even begins. Take the W. 

[Lowershoresadness]

was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!