Ruin Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 last year only snow I got was a snow burst from the lakes that made it over the mountains snowed fast and hard on a day off but i had to go to work for training almost got into a 30 car pilel up. its all the snow we had all year lol. was a fast inch in 10 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I was about to joke watch it be a lakes cutter or apps or ots models suck so much at times haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: The nam is almost an apps cutter lol Even the SNE mets were tossing it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 RLX just put up WSWatches for their eastern counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: The nam is almost an apps cutter lol lol its pretty much a non event for our area. Even up here its about 1" of snow to rain to dryslot. It mixes almost to state college lol. Be honest...it does bother you just a little to see it go that far west lol. I am not overly concerned by an at range NAM run...but I would rather see it going the right way then the wrong way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: lol its pretty much a non event for our area. Even up here its about 1" of snow to rain to dryslot. It mixes almost to state college lol. Be honest...it does bother you just a little to see it go that far west lol. I am not overly concerned by an at range NAM run...but I would rather see it going the right way then the wrong way. Why have models been so bad since they upgraded them? I remember for years king euro was the legit winter model. The upgrade and now it sharts the bed. then nam does good for years gets upgraded then same happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ruin said: Why have models been so bad since they upgraded them? I remember for years king euro was the legit winter model. The upgrade and now it sharts the bed. then nam does good for years gets upgraded then same happens. The main globals have been crazy consistent with only slight adjustments given the time scale for the last 3 days. Some of the meso models will bounce around like this at range. Now...if the globals were to shift to a NAM like inside cutter...that would be a major jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ji said: The nam is almost an apps cutter lol SREF looks good lol...I mean if were going to bring up a bad NAM run at range...might as well mention a good SREF 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The main globals have been crazy consistent with only slight adjustments given the time scale for the last 3 days. Some of the meso models will bounce around like this at range. Now...if the globals were to shift to a NAM like inside cutter...that would be a major jump. I have seen major changes like this to often then not sadly. Major snow storm coming tomorrow temps mid 30s 12-18 inchs. wake up its all ready 43 and sun no clouds lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 LWX morning disco... mentions FZRA and IP as well .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Canadian high pressure will build overhead tonight through Tuesday with blustery and dry conditions with temperatures a little below normal. This high will be over Quebec by Wednesday morning and be the source of cold air into our area for the next storm system. Weak low pressure over the Ohio Valley will transfer to a coastal low as an upper trough takes on a negative tilt. As this low passes near the Delmarva Wednesday afternoon/evening, warmer air will be drawn into southeastern parts of the area. The gradient with this storm could be quite stark, with snow totals approaching a foot versus only a few inches separated by a county. The potential for mixing looks greatest along the I-95 and US-29 corridor, though worth noting the 00Z NAM brings the warm intrusion to the Blue Ridge/Catoctins. Ensembles continue to paint the highest probabilities of 6/12" across the northern Shenandoah Valley into north central Maryland. For this forecast package and at this range, have kept the forecast and snow derivation parameters very close to our blended guidance and WPC. This probably does not represent the threat for sleet and freezing rain well enough, but note that is a possibility as well. Am currently collaborating with our neighboring offices about a winter storm watch. It looks like precipitation should largely exit by Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure is progged to reside along or just east of the Delmarva and Jersey coast Thursday morning, with lingering snow across the northern and northeastern portions of the CWA. The low will continue to push eastward away from the coast as the associated shortwave aloft shunts eastward as well. This will allow for the steadier precip across the northern half of the CWA to dwindle Thursday morning. That being said, broad upper trough will persist over the Mid Atlantic the remainder of the day and Thursday night, and with shortwave energy tracking overhead, off and on snow shower/flurry activity may linger during this time. Temperatures will be on the chilly side for this time of year, with highs in the 30s to near 40 degrees (20s in the Alleghenies), falling back into the 20s area wide Thursday night. The primary upper trough axis finally pushes through the area Thursday night, so any snow shower/flurry activity will come to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zde4 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Rgem came in NOT west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 @psuhoffman @MillvilleWx I'd take the 06z RGEM and run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I’m way too old to be doing these late nights. If the GFS goes West I’m going to pull a JI and lose my shit. We better get 6” from this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, ravensrule said: I’m way too old to be doing these late nights. If the GFS goes West I’m going to pull a JI and lose my shit. We better get 6” from this. lol im getting up in age to but my job I work 10 hours second shift till 2am so im use to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, yoda said: @psuhoffman @MillvilleWx I'd take the 06z RGEM and run I wouldn’t worry about the NAM. I can’t tell you how many times in the past few years at 36+ hours it’s given me snow on the back end of a storm that ended up no where close because the system was way more progressive. Gonna get some sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 06z RGEM... good move SE with the snow accums compared to 00z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Winter Storm Watches issued west of the fall line central MD. A little further west for DC metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 06z GFS says it's still lightly snowing at 12z THUR in N VA into MD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 443 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 MDZ006-008-011-503-505>508-VAZ025-026-040-501-505-506-141745- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.201216T1200Z-201217T0900Z/ Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Augusta-Rockingham-Rappahannock- Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- 443 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of greater than 7 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Maryland and northern Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley. * WHEN...From Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A wintry mix could affect accumulations over portions of the watch area and result in a sharp gradient of snow totals across a small distance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 WB 6Z GFS, 925 did tick NW at Wed 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 WB 6z GFS snow map did tick NW around DC due to mixing/rain 7pm-10pm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 WB 6Z GFS 925 7pm, 10 pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Updated portion of the LWX AFD after the watches issued After collaborating with our neighboring offices, have issued a Winter Storm Watch for the areas that have the highest probabilities of significant snow. As is the case with an uncertain system with a sharp gradient, some areas may need to be added to the watch (or eventual warning), or portions of the watch may eventually be resolved to an advisory, based on forecast trends. It looks like precipitation should largely exit by Thursday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The way things are looking I may have to take a drive to Chestertown and hangout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS, 925 did tick NW at Wed 7pm This makes sense because there was a slight tick west with the surface reflection, a bit stronger and 925mb winds were able to make it to the fall line. The fall line and east will very likely mix during this storm. Perhaps slightly beyond it too, but for how long, and then where is the deformation axis established, and is there a TROWAL. I've seen that feature now on most model runs. A lot of times in SoPA, so something to watch because it's not far away from the northern folks and that would give some crushing totals whoever gets under it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 WB 6Z GFS surface temps upper 30s inside Beltway 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 For those on the edge (not the ledge) the only hope now is the coastal low makes the eastward turn a little sooner(further south). That would cool the lower levels quicker and allow for a longer duration of accumulating snow on the backside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6Z GEFS mean low locations does not support NAM. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 hours ago, clskinsfan said: DCA almost 10 inches. GFS is good for all. Me likey!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 RGEM & GFS look MUCH better this morning for Baltimore metro. Noticeable tick SE with snowfall amounts. looking like a solid lock 6-12+ up here in Carroll county. Man... I’d take that 6z GFS for the entire forum!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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