psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 51 minutes ago, Ji said: its weird. On TT---the 72 map looks like this when it shows qpf. but then One is avg precip rate over the previous 6 hours and the other is instantaneous rate (or like a radar depiction). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 UKMET is not that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This is not a freezing rain event, folks. Models may be spitting that out, but it isn't happening. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I’m not just saying this because it shows less snow but I just don’t think its that great of a model. I’m sure someone who is smarter/follows its performance more closely can comment, but I never get the “Euro will follow the UK” since it seems that rarely happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: it's not a great model. neither is the Canadian. the NWS isn't relying on either of them to make its forecasts. Yeah, we don't even look at the UKMET for any reason down here. Our order of prevalence is: 1. Euro/GFS 2. RAP/HRRR for meso 3. Nam Nest 4. Canadian 5. Hieroglyphics 6. Crystal Ball 7. Icon 8. That's So Raven telekinesis 9. A straight up guess out of a hat 10. Nam 12km 2 1 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Good old Hieroglyphics....can't beat that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 hoping for a flatter solution like 18z.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Deck Pic said: hoping for a flatter solution like 18z.... Looks like the HP is slightly further west at 48 on 00z... yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, yoda said: Looks like the HP is slightly further west at 48 on 00z... yes? dunno...i only look at snow maps 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like the HP is slightly further west at 48 on 00z... yes? No discernible differences so far between the globals in SLP. Will keep posted. Been digging more using AWIPS. FINALLY a quiet night here after todays ridiculous wind event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Eh..more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 A lot of sleet this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Shitty run for us easterners....:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Looks like a lot of 35 degree rain in Fredericksburg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 850 temps are fairly unchanged other than random banding signatures. But a good bit warmer on the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Still a very nice run for the western folk...Winchester to Westminster gets shellacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Shitty run for us easterners....:( How shitty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Good run for the Shenandoah, heavy snow extends further down than 12z. Not as good for the rest of us. A lot of that is sleet on the SE edge. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, ravensrule said: How shitty? NW of Baltimore could be decent....I mean...people are going to get nailed....I-95 east flirting with disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 00z 18z 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: NW of Baltimore could be decent....I mean...people are going to get nailed....I-95 east flirting with disaster Thanks Matt. I honestly hope you always get nailed. You always put so much into tracking and unfortunately you don’t get much back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 A good portion of the forum is going to get smoked....and a good portion will be pulling our hair out looking at soundings and praying 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, ravensrule said: Thanks Matt. I honestly hope you always get nailed. You always put so much into tracking and unfortunately you don’t get much back. Good luck to you...I'm barely around anymore...just like to pop in for events...Others are doing the heavy lifting when it comes to quality posts and analysis. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: A good portion of the forum is going to get smoked....and a good portion will be pulling our hair out looking at soundings and praying MoCo is setting up to be an insane gradient. Clarksburg could see a foot and Chevy Chase a quarter that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, ravensrule said: How shitty? You mix for a time, then you be whacked really good by a band that develops along the 85H frontogenic placement. 850mb temps crash from ~+1C to -5C in 3 hrs and it rips for like 6 hrs before shutting off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: You mix for a time, then you be whacked really good by a band that develops along the 85H frontogenic placement. 850mb temps crash from ~+1C to -5C in 3 hrs and it rips for like 6 hrs before shutting off. Low seems to get up to just SE of cape may and then shoots literally due east from there between 78-87 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Guys, I'll have a more in-depth post about the 00z runs tonight and I'll lay out what I saw with regards to everything. There were many in the sub that got smoked by the Euro and some will be hanging on for dear life (I-95 brethren). The fall line will be a major play with this one. The further away, the better. It's a classic setup for these parts. You know your climo. Temper expectations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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