PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Cut back on precip a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: DCA almost 10 inches. GFS is good for all. LOL no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Quite a SE shift on the H7 track...this would make just about all of the forum, including those near I-95, very happy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: LOL no. LOL according to the model. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Also doing a pretty big norlun just north of the MD line. Keeps Precip going in philly long after the low exits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: 35 won't cut it. Just going off the crude maps....soundings support closer 32. We will fight temps when rates let up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Best run so far for me. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: LOL according to the model. Yes. Does DC often get 10 inches of snow with temps at 34 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Dont worry. The surface will create its own cold air. I don’t have a crystal ball on what the final track will be. My best guess is a 60/40 compromise between the most progressive gfs and most amplified euro leaning 60 euro. But I am fairly confident I would trust the colder thermals of all the other guidance. Not saying DC gets pummeled. If it tracks inside the colder thermal profile won’t matter as a warm layer blasts in. But if the low stays off the coast I think you will be colder then the gfs indicates. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Does DC often get 10 inches of snow with temps at 34 degrees? The entire column is below zero till last 50 meters... will be fine IMO. But we'll just have to wait and see and agree to disagree 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Wow, the storm hits a wall between 78-84 and scoots east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It doubled QPF at Deep Creek from 18z. Barely 0.4” at 18z to just about 0.9” at 00z. Love seeing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: LOL according to the model. Yes. It’s above freezing for most of the event in DC. They may see some snow but not 10inches worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 00z GGEM at 72 has 1039mb HP in Quebec with 1003mb SLP offshore Ocean City 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, mappy said: It’s above freezing for most of the event in DC. They may see some snow but not 10inches worth I am just stating what the model says. And even if DCA got 10 inches they would report 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: 00z GGEM at 72 has 1039mb HP in Quebec with 1003mb SLP offshore Ocean City 12z was over Delmarva at 84. Sounds like a slight tick east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: I am just stating what the model says. And even if DCA got 10 inches they would report 3 We all know snow maps are lol and are just pretty to look at. Shouldn’t be taken verbatim. Per weatherbell snow map, SE DC gets 2 and NW gets 11 lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Not sure why people liked that run. Maybe low position was better, but it wasn't noticeably colder and it drastically cut qpf everywhere. No bueno. Maybe just a blip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: DCA almost 10 inches. GFS is good for all. Looks great for most of sub forum, per 0z GFS, still not great here around Fredericksburg, but it’s closer than it was. Goal has always been 5” to verify a WSW, gonna be tough to do that here in FXBG. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: I am just stating what the model says. And even if DCA got 10 inches they would report 3 Unfortunately, there’s some issue with layers and surface 33-35 you can all but cut that in half, if not more. Not a great run. Loss the robust ccb look it was advertising but we all knew that was overdone. Key is that general track and synoptics hold course. It’s been said but HUGE euro run tonight, lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, with the extra hour of daylight savings time gone, should help the storm. So that’s why it suddenly gets colder right after...makes sense. Perfect correlation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 keeps me all snow but i barely get over a foot 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Step back from 18z for DC...950Mb to surface looks kind of gross...fortunately the mid and upper levels look pretty solid for DC considering...probably a warm nose sneaks in, but the big issue is down low. Yeah the closest 925 gets is just SE of Andrews early Wednesday afternoon but as you said 950 and below is the ‘issue’. I’d think rates would overcome but if its light precip, there’d be a lot of drip drip drip. I do think once things ‘get going’, even DC crashes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS has consistently been showing flurries and light snow lingering much of Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I can't believe how many of you said this was good. Depth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 12z was over Delmarva at 84. Sounds like a slight tick east? If thats where it was at 84 then yes I believe so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Not sure why people liked that run. Maybe low position was better, but it wasn't noticeably colder and it drastically cut qpf everywhere. No bueno. Maybe just a blip. It was basically a hold at best. Not sure I get the excitement either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Imagine being in the NY board right now. The RGEM gave them 32 and the GFS gave them 7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Not sure why people liked that run. Maybe low position was better, but it wasn't noticeably colder and it drastically cut qpf everywhere. No bueno. Maybe just a blip.It wasn’t warmer and it probably gives everyone (DC/west) warning-level snow? Wasn’t a step to forum-wide MECS but for those with tempered expectations I think seeing things not go sharply in the wrong direction was good. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 51 minutes ago, batmanbrad said: Don't know if this was mentioned earlier (I couldn't find a reference), but earlier this evening, Capital Weather Gang did a Facebook Live presentation featuring Jason Samenow, Jeff Halverson, and AmWx's own Wes Junker (usedtobe)... check it out! I wasn't sure if I could/should post a link to it, but if you do a search on FB for CWG, you should be able to find and view it. Took a few Dr. Halverson classes at umbc for a geography degree maybe 15 years ago. Assuming it’s the same person? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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