LP08 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Surface stays at about 33-35 immediate metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 HP doing its dirty work. Filthy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I need to move west for this one...super warm at the surface here GFS has been running warmer then all other guidance at the surface. I would bet if the gfs track verifies it would end up closer to the euros thermal depiction adjusted for track. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, with the extra hour of daylight savings time gone, should help the storm. low sun angle too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, LP08 said: Surface stays at about 33-35 immediate metro area. 35 won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 DCA almost 10 inches. GFS is good for all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Better track for DC and BWI this run. I wouldn't put much stock into banding or lack thereof on the gfs global. Wait for mesos to get in range. Great trend for my Southern friends imo. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Cut back on precip a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: DCA almost 10 inches. GFS is good for all. LOL no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Quite a SE shift on the H7 track...this would make just about all of the forum, including those near I-95, very happy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: LOL no. LOL according to the model. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Also doing a pretty big norlun just north of the MD line. Keeps Precip going in philly long after the low exits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: 35 won't cut it. Just going off the crude maps....soundings support closer 32. We will fight temps when rates let up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Best run so far for me. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: LOL according to the model. Yes. Does DC often get 10 inches of snow with temps at 34 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Dont worry. The surface will create its own cold air. I don’t have a crystal ball on what the final track will be. My best guess is a 60/40 compromise between the most progressive gfs and most amplified euro leaning 60 euro. But I am fairly confident I would trust the colder thermals of all the other guidance. Not saying DC gets pummeled. If it tracks inside the colder thermal profile won’t matter as a warm layer blasts in. But if the low stays off the coast I think you will be colder then the gfs indicates. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Step back from 18z for DC...950Mb to surface looks kind of gross...fortunately the mid and upper levels look pretty solid for DC considering...probably a warm nose sneaks in, but the big issue is down low. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Does DC often get 10 inches of snow with temps at 34 degrees? The entire column is below zero till last 50 meters... will be fine IMO. But we'll just have to wait and see and agree to disagree 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Wow, the storm hits a wall between 78-84 and scoots east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It doubled QPF at Deep Creek from 18z. Barely 0.4” at 18z to just about 0.9” at 00z. Love seeing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: LOL according to the model. Yes. It’s above freezing for most of the event in DC. They may see some snow but not 10inches worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Does DC often get 10 inches of snow with temps at 34 degrees? Heavy is good....not expecting much daytime accumulation here without +SN....Post pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 00z GGEM at 72 has 1039mb HP in Quebec with 1003mb SLP offshore Ocean City 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, mappy said: It’s above freezing for most of the event in DC. They may see some snow but not 10inches worth I am just stating what the model says. And even if DCA got 10 inches they would report 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: 00z GGEM at 72 has 1039mb HP in Quebec with 1003mb SLP offshore Ocean City 12z was over Delmarva at 84. Sounds like a slight tick east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: I am just stating what the model says. And even if DCA got 10 inches they would report 3 We all know snow maps are lol and are just pretty to look at. Shouldn’t be taken verbatim. Per weatherbell snow map, SE DC gets 2 and NW gets 11 lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Not sure why people liked that run. Maybe low position was better, but it wasn't noticeably colder and it drastically cut qpf everywhere. No bueno. Maybe just a blip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: DCA almost 10 inches. GFS is good for all. Looks great for most of sub forum, per 0z GFS, still not great here around Fredericksburg, but it’s closer than it was. Goal has always been 5” to verify a WSW, gonna be tough to do that here in FXBG. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: I am just stating what the model says. And even if DCA got 10 inches they would report 3 Unfortunately, there’s some issue with layers and surface 33-35 you can all but cut that in half, if not more. Not a great run. Loss the robust ccb look it was advertising but we all knew that was overdone. Key is that general track and synoptics hold course. It’s been said but HUGE euro run tonight, lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, with the extra hour of daylight savings time gone, should help the storm. So that’s why it suddenly gets colder right after...makes sense. Perfect correlation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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