Chase Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Mt. Holly hoisted watches Maybe LWX will hoist the Piedmont/Shen region into the Code Purple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: That’s pretty good for around here. Half the time we get a storm it melts within 12 hours. If there's any time to try and hold onto snow cover, it's 5 days before the solstice... 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=70&interval=30&year=2009&month=12&day=18&hour=7&minute=0 Ugh, don’t tease! That’s the gold standard right there for MA December storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=70&interval=30&year=2009&month=12&day=18&hour=7&minute=0 That would be perfectly fine by me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Subtle differences but big impact. Almost doubled my snow by bringing the higher totals SE. 20 miles made a difference on the margins. No complaints here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 25 minutes ago, wxtrix said: 20 inches? I'll take it, thanks. Funny thing is the setup has screamed 20 incher for us for days. I mean the models locked onto a pattern that is just perfect our area. We may not hit 20 but we are gonna get hammered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: Funny thing is the setup has screamed 20 incher for us for days. I mean the models locked onto a pattern that is just perfect our area. We may not hit 20 but we are gonna get hammered. Wish we still had the Heavy Snow Warning. Multiple hazards are fun 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=70&interval=30&year=2009&month=12&day=18&hour=7&minute=0 Amazing; multiple waves of moderate...snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=70&interval=30&year=2009&month=12&day=18&hour=7&minute=0 That pivot is a thing of beauty. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, wxtrix said: like a smaller version of 1/2016. Much smaller.:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Funny thing is the setup has screamed 20 incher for us for days. I mean the models locked onto a pattern that is just perfect our area. We may not hit 20 but we are gonna get hammered. I think every model run I have seen for the last 3 days has shown 10-20”+ in my yard. I keep waiting for the rug to get pulled but it’s been locked in since Friday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 My bar is always 8" in DC proper, so that Metro shuts down. If that happens Wed/Thu, I'm sending Randy $100. For real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I'll be happy with 6-8 inches here. I think anything over that is a plus. Gonna be shoveling for the first time in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Wish we still had the Heavy Snow Warning. Multiple hazards are fun You're dating yourself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 26 minutes ago, Amped said: Looks close to the 12z Euro in most places Those maps.... the difference is if you are NW of 95 a lot more of that snow is REAL on the 18z and not some clown map fantasy. The thermal profile was 1-2 degrees colder and that makes a big difference when you are talking about these 1C warm layers at 850 during the height of the storm when a few hours one way or the other can be the difference between 5" and 10" of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I think every model run I have seen for the last 3 days has shown 10-20”+ in my yard. I keep waiting for the rug to get pulled but it’s been locked in since Friday morning. You/Winchester/Smithburg/Hagerstown/Westminster are going to bullseye I think. Depending on where the banding sets up, I could see a chance for very localized reports of 2 feet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Euro looks fun for IMBY (New Market ~550'). Hope the Euro keeps the gravy train rolling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Well baltimore city peeps @nw baltimore wx and @North Balti Zen...here we are again literally with line running right through our respective neighborhoods...think we crack the 5" mark for the first time since 2016? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Pretty much unchanged euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Mid December with 3 days after a snowstorm with temps low mid 30s is pretty rare around here . Most times it's like 1 day chilly day after and then 50 again the next lol I’ve noticed over the years that the best way to have extended snow cover in the mid Atlantic is to have a strong, persistent -EPO. Of course a -NAO also helps, but when the Pacific is on the good side then you get amazing stretches of deep winter like Feb to March 2015, and most of the winter of 2013-14. Otherwise, it’s usually just as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Still a much diff look from the GEFS Tiny tick SE however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well baltimore city peeps @nw baltimore wx and @North Balti Zen...here we are again literally with line running right through our respective neighborhoods...think we crack the 5" mark for the first time since 2016? @nw baltimore wx doesn’t live in the city and almost always does better than you. Pikesville is a much better spot than where you live. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: You/Winchester/Smithburg/Hagerstown/Westminster are going to bullseye I think. Depending on where the banding sets up, I could see a chance for very localized reports of 2 feet. I measured 18.8” in Dec ‘09 here (which would make it the largest Dec snowfall on record for this area.) That storm, iirc, was moving slower than this one should, and had a moisture connection from the deep tropics. And may have been moving into a colder air mass if I’m not mistaken. Keeping expectations in check for Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: @nw baltimore wx doesn’t live in the city and almost always does better than you. Pikesville is a much better spot than where you live. I think he’s just outside the city line. But yes that area is 350’+ and easily on the colder side of the fall line. Helps a lot in marginal situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I wouldn't expect a HECS from this. The 2009-2010 storms all had massive moisture feeds. The models were printing out 2-2.5"+ as snow across a large area at this range. Not seeing that here. Snow maps aside, the raw liquid totals just aren't there for the widespread 20"+ totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: I measured 18.8” in Dec ‘09 here (which would make it the largest Dec snowfall on record for this area.) That storm, iirc, was moving slower than this one should, and had a moisture connection from the deep tropics. And may have been moving into a colder air mass if I’m not mistaken. Keeping expectations in check for Wednesday. 18" here as well from that storm. Thinking 8-12 right now but the banding on the euro is sweet. Definitely a wildcard wherever that sets up. 18z focused it right in our backyards but its bound to shift around....as you know. This is a nice panel here.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I wouldn't expect a HECS from this. The 2009-2010 storms all had massive moisture feeds. The models were printing out 2-2.5"+ as snow across a large area at this range. Not seeing that here. Snow maps aside, the raw liquid totals just aren't there for the widespread 20"+ totals. Did models over estimate qpf more back then though. I know the high res models back then had horrible wet biases 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18z EPS has the surface low in exactly the canonical spot, ~50mi off OCMD, at 6z Thursday. Don't overthink things. Use the ensembles the way they're supposed to be used for, not agonizing over 5-10mi wiggles in 10:1 snow maps. Going forward now, we can start seeing mesoscale effects like thermal profiles and banding. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The precip totals are there for widespread 20 plus if it was colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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