PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Ok, just this one time.. HOLY GEFS. There are some bigggg hits in there. P25 and I’ll never be snarky to mappy ever again. Pinky swear 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I would feel pretty good if i was 20 miles west of the fall line. Pretty much a can't miss right? #faithinthegefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 56 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Only a 15 mile difference between 17” and 1.5” lol. Good run but man I’m gonna be sweating here in southeast Baltimore county. I could be rain and just a few miles northwest in like Towson could be dumping. I feel your pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Something tells me this is gonna trend colder over the next 48 hours of runs...but maybe it's just weenieism, lol Bur I do put a little stock in the postively familiar scenario of CAD being underdone on the modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: I would feel pretty good if i was 20 miles west of the fall line. Pretty much a can't miss right? #faithinthegefs What if, hypothetically speaking, you were like 3-5 miles from the fall line and, hypothetically, at like 375’ elevation? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, UIWWildthing said: P25 gets a chef's kiss. award for 2nd place goes to P22, with honorable mentions to P17 and P03, and (almost) P26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Something tells me this is gonna trend colder over the next 48 hours of runs...but maybe it's just weenieism, lol Bur I do put a little stock in the postively familiar scenario of CAD being underdone on the modeling. Count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Something tells me this is gonna trend colder over the next 48 hours of runs...but maybe it's just weenieism, lol Bur I do put a little stock in the postively familiar scenario of CAD being underdone on the modeling. It's CAD versus bombogenisis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: What if, hypothetically speaking, you were like 3-5 miles from the fall line and, hypothetically, at like 375’ elevation? I would feel alot better than where I am at now. With no alcohol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Something tells me this is gonna trend colder over the next 48 hours of runs...but maybe it's just weenieism, lol Bur I do put a little stock in the postively familiar scenario of CAD being underdone on the modeling. cad being underdone has become my favorite weenieism the last couple seasons! don’t forget a low couldn’t possibly tuck so close with CAD that’s modeled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 CAD being underdone is the one weenie rule that actually works for us most of the time. But keep in mind that’s for surface temps most, not warm layers aloft. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I would feel pretty good if i was 20 miles west of the fall line. Pretty much a can't miss right? #faithinthegefs Yep. My zone forecast says snow likely then snow. You’ll do fine. Any more ticks SE and you are in the zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Same. I'm roughly 620' in Reisterstown.EJ, we moved into Worthington Valley 2 months ago from Lutherville Timonium. 7.5 miles to the northwest and gained 220’ of elevation! . Currently at 627’ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: CAD being underdone is the one weenie rule that actually works for us most of the time. But keep in mind that’s for surface temps most, not warm layers aloft. It works well for inland areas, and even here with a true Arctic air mass and a good storm track. Pretty ordinary cold and tucked in low is a problem here in mid Dec. Still hoping for the best, but not expecting much of anything at this point lol. See what the models have 24 hours from now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Jeff B said: EJ, we moved into Worthington Valley 2 months ago from Lutherville Timonium. 7.5 miles to the northwest and gained 220’ of elevation! . Currently at 627’ Nice move there. You probably gained a few inches in your snowfall average. I believe @AdamHLG lives nearby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: I would feel pretty good if i was 20 miles west of the fall line. Pretty much a can't miss right? #faithinthegefs Outside of the Jan 2016 event, you have to go back to the Feb 2014 Miller A since we last saw a true climo gradient NW-SE. I got around 22" here in northern AA County with the Jan 2016 storm, while areas west of the fall line got 36+. In the Feb 2014 event, I recorded 7" on the front end, 4-5" with the deformation the next day, with rain/drizzle/dry slot in between. Areas west were well over a foot. I'm not expecting much IMBY on the front end -- I'm definitely more intrigued about the deform potential early Thursday. How far south will that CCB band extend, what will the rates be, and how progressive will it be lifting out are the big questions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Jeff B said: EJ, we moved into Worthington Valley 2 months ago from Lutherville Timonium. 7.5 miles to the northwest and gained 220’ of elevation! . Currently at 627’ I live by the PBS station on Owings Mills Blvd. It's great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 @clskinsfan P17 you and I can go ahead and shake on. I’ll take my foot plus so you can have your two foot plus. Man that’s a BECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The arctic high for this upcoming snowstorm is progged to be about 5 mb or so stronger than the one in Jan 2016 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: It works well for inland areas, and even here with a true Arctic air mass and a good storm track. Pretty ordinary cold and tucked in low is a problem here in mid Dec. Still hoping for the best, but not expecting much of anything at this point lol. See what the models have 24 hours from now. The New England piece of the airmass is definitely arctic. Dewpoints below 0F is a classic sign of that. For us, we have dews in the teens. That's a respectable polar airmass, but nothing super special. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Runs today all looking good IMBY. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 29 minutes ago, CAPE said: I would feel pretty good if i was 20 miles west of the fall line. Pretty much a can't miss right? #faithinthegefs This may be a dumb question, but how exactly do we define the fall line? In VA, would it be Rt. 15? Rt. 28? Great Falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: This may be a dumb question, but how exactly do we definte the fall line? In VA, would it be Rt. 15? Rt. 28? Great Falls? I-95 is about the fall line. It is a bit west of that. You can wiki it. Great falls is a result of the falls, but it used to be a bit east of that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: This may be a dumb question, but how exactly do we define the fall line? In VA, would it be Rt. 15? Rt. 28? Great Falls? I 95 is the fall line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: This may be a dumb question, but how exactly do we define the fall line? In VA, would it be Rt. 15? Rt. 28? Great Falls? Not sure about VA, but in MD, it's basically I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: This may be a dumb question, but how exactly do we define the fall line? In VA, would it be Rt. 15? Rt. 28? Great Falls? 95 is a good place to start, but usually runs like this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, mappy said: Runs today all looking good IMBY. Flagged as banter 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: This may be a dumb question, but how exactly do we define the fall line here? In VA, would it be Rt. 15? Rt. 28? Great Falls? Its where the elevation changes from nominally 100 feet, to 400+ in a relatively short distance. It runs just west of I-95 from DC to Baltimore to NE MD, so easy to identify. It is marked by rapids and waterfalls, so Great Falls may be along the Fall line or just west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This isn't bad I think. Gun to head, I'd probably say 5-10" for MBY. I'm pretty close to the boundary between his 6-12" and 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: This may be a dumb question, but how exactly do we definte the fall line? In VA, would it be Rt. 15? Rt. 28? Great Falls? Picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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