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December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Rates are never that good in this region. Usually 10:1 at best. 

Not where I live at over 1500' in Augusta County.  I regularly get over 10:1

ETA: Also, isn't the whole point of Kuchera ratios to adjust for the thermodynamics of each particular storm, and not randomly assign higher ratios than climo would normally suggest?

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6 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Throwing this out here randomly (not aimed at you, just using this plot as an example!).  But damn, I never much liked these all-to-subtle color transitions, especially on the snow maps!  My old(er) eyes have a hard time discerning those tight gradient transitions from the light blues to light purples, then darker purples, then pink!!  LOL!!  Now...get off my lawn you damn whipper-snappers, while I get my cataract removed :oldman::lol:

Fixed it for ya pops ;)

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Just now, H2O said:

The blues are the most and it goes to 0” in the pink/purples

Yep that’s what I was thinking.

Of course each one of those stupid shades could be a six inch contour so we could be looking at a range of 0 to 1000”. Who knows. That’s why I love them so much

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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

As you near an event, the OP and ENS will not diverge as much. 

 

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Yeah that's the general idea lol. At this range we can still see some differences, but going forward the op runs are where it's at. Probably around this time tomorrow.

That's kind of what I was thinking.  Maybe continue giving ensembles weight up to say, nearly 48 hours before the event (so sometime tomorrow for this event).  Then almost exclusively deterministic thereafter.  At least that's what I've gotten from what most have said over the past couple of years.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yep that’s what I was thinking.

Of course each one of those stupid shades could be a six inch contour so we could be looking at a range of 0 to 1000”. Who knows. That’s why I love them so much

You get pummeled according to that legend-less map, and there's a hint of the @psuhoffman fringe zone in there too!  (All in fun and joking, PSU, but you know that!!). :D

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19 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Not where I live at over 1500' in Augusta County.  I regularly get over 10:1

ETA: Also, isn't the whole point of Kuchera ratios to adjust for the thermodynamics of each particular storm, and not randomly assign higher ratios than climo would normally suggest?

That may be true, but unless you are measuring every six hours and melting the snow to get liquid equivalent, you have no idea what ratios you usually get. That said, if you are that informed about local climo, then you don't even need a snow map. I don't look at snow maps for my place at 1600' in Northern NH. :) 

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah that's the general idea lol. At this range we can still see some differences, but going forward the op runs are where it's at. Probably around this time tomorrow.

I’d say this 18Z Eps is the last run I’d weight as high as the Op. I’ve been saying 0z tonight is my benchmark and we look in tentatively good shape.

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