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December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Only a 15 mile difference between 17” and 1.5” lol. Good run but man I’m gonna be sweating here in southeast Baltimore county. I could be rain and just a few miles northwest in like Towson could be dumping. 

Reisterstown and Upperco push 10" while Essex struggles. Classic early season event west longitude and elevation are key.

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15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

There’s been a history of the -2 and -9C isotherm at 7H having distinct bands develop within intense cyclogenesis and was very apparent in 2016 with Baltimore to Philly clocked by the -2 and I-81 with the -9

I like when you say cyclogenesis

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Reisterstown and Upperco push 10" while Essex struggles. Classic early season event west longitude and elevation are key.

Yeah being by the bay I expect to have major mixing or even rain problems for most of the day. I’m just hoping the CCB is as the GFS advertised and I get dumped on from like 02z-08z

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11 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Only a 15 mile difference between 17” and 1.5” lol. Good run but man I’m gonna be sweating here in southeast Baltimore county. I could be rain and just a few miles northwest in like Towson could be dumping. 

you will see several inches..

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22 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I am way too tired to look at stuff right now in-depth, but there isn’t much change to my previous thoughts. I may slightly move areas like Northern Carroll/Balt/Harford Counties into a more favorable position to Max potential with the system. There will likely be two monster bands that setup during this event once the trough goes negative and closes off somewhere over the Mid Atlantic. There’s been a history of the -2 and -9C isotherm at 7H having distinct bands develop within intense cyclogenesis and was very apparent in 2016 with Baltimore to Philly clocked by the -2 and I-81 with the -9. Someone I know did some research and a paper on it, so I’ll have to look more into it.

In either case, deformation is where higher ratio fluff will pump totals rapidly for whoever gets them. I wouldn’t waste time on the NAM beyond Monday right now. ICON is not a model I’d put much stock in. Focus on UL progression at 5H on the GFS/CMC/ECMWF, the track of the 7H low, and frontogenic placement during Wed afternoon and evening. Also, follow the finger of + Theta-E advection. Where that points will be where the WCB and CCB meet to help form the deformation axis. There could be a sneaky TROWAL in the mix too for our NE areas that could provide an E-W enhancement for snow. The Euro was showing a little flavor of that on its run across SePA. I’m gonna watch GFS come in, but I may also fall back asleep. I’ll catch y’all tonight regardless. Fingers crossed for HH


.

After you get some rest, can you explain what you mean by  + Theta-E advection.  You have mentioned it at least in your last 2 posts, and I would love to know what it is!  Thanks for analysis, as always!

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17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Better than 12z

45FD4018-38AD-40FF-9352-586F64515D51.thumb.png.768b39b634e45b011268d41654a3edb9.png

Throwing this out here randomly (not aimed at you, just using this plot as an example!).  But damn, I never much liked these all-to-subtle color transitions, especially on the snow maps!  My old(er) eyes have a hard time discerning those tight gradient transitions from the light blues to light purples, then darker purples, then pink!!  LOL!!  Now...get off my lawn you damn whipper-snappers, while I get my magnifying glass out!! :oldman::lol:

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23 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I don't buy it.  Other than compaction, why would this be more accurate than Kuchera when I don't come close to losing 850, 925, or 2m the entire event?

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3 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

After you get some rest, can you explain what you mean by  + Theta-E advection.  You have mentioned it at least in your last 2 posts, and I would love to know what it is!  Thanks for analysis, as always!

It is basically a measure of instability. In the context of this storm, think mesoscale banding.

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2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Throwing this out here randomly (not aimed at you, just using this plot as an example!).  But damn, I never much liked these all-to-subtle color transitions, especially on the snow maps!  My old(er) eyes have a hard time discerning those tight gradient transitions from the light blues to light purples, then darker purples, then pink!!  LOL!!  Now...get off my lawn you damn whipper-snappers, while I get my magnifying glass out!! :oldman::lol:

The easy rule is: purple is good, whitish green is really good, and deep bluish is incredible. 

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