BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Come on GFS happy hour! We got dis... We are due for a tick west...a step back..a minor adjustment in the noise that takes away half the previous runs snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 56 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Lol. That'd be top 3 snow storm off all time out here. The NAM is an embarrassment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 RGEM 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Nice RGEM run. It tends to be warm, so take that into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 CAD showing up nicely at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 To my eye 42 looks pretty good thus far at 5h. Energy is a little further south in the plains. I’m hoping it translates downstream as the run plays out. Confluence looks fairly unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 At 63 the 850 line is down at the NC VA border. Looks good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: CAD showing up nicely at 48. IMO even more pronounced at 60. You can see the lines wedged down into GA bend further south/southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 75 the 81 Corridor is smoked. 84. Holy crap. What a beatdown for the western crew. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 50/50 down to 937... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 72 looks ever so slightly more progressive as low placement is already NE of Wilmington while 12z was just off MYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 18Z WB GFS...looking even better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Stone cold assassin 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Great run. All snow in DC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Great run. All snow in DC. We barely lose 925, but it is close enough that rates will matter. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS said happy hour is on! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I am way too tired to look at stuff right now in-depth, but there isn’t much change to my previous thoughts. I may slightly move areas like Northern Carroll/Balt/Harford Counties into a more favorable position to Max potential with the system. There will likely be two monster bands that setup during this event once the trough goes negative and closes off somewhere over the Mid Atlantic. There’s been a history of the -2 and -9C isotherm at 7H having distinct bands develop within intense cyclogenesis and was very apparent in 2016 with Baltimore to Philly clocked by the -2 and I-81 with the -9. Someone I know did some research and a paper on it, so I’ll have to look more into it. In either case, deformation is where higher ratio fluff will pump totals rapidly for whoever gets them. I wouldn’t waste time on the NAM beyond Monday right now. ICON is not a model I’d put much stock in. Focus on UL progression at 5H on the GFS/CMC/ECMWF, the track of the 7H low, and frontogenic placement during Wed afternoon and evening. Also, follow the finger of + Theta-E advection. Where that points will be where the WCB and CCB meet to help form the deformation axis. There could be a sneaky TROWAL in the mix too for our NE areas that could provide an E-W enhancement for snow. The Euro was showing a little flavor of that on its run across SePA. I’m gonna watch GFS come in, but I may also fall back asleep. I’ll catch y’all tonight regardless. Fingers crossed for HH. 10 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This panel 5 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Booooom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Scraff said: GFS said happy hour is on! GFS just served us all drinks on the house. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Tasty 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS shows a rain snow line with almost no sleet in the transition zone. This almost never happens in a CAD setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 And we’re back. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Still flurries Thursday morning. What a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It could still be better. Depth chart https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020121318&fh=90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Wow hell of a run! That deform band is just dumb from 78 on. GFS has been very consistent now for multiple runs overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It could still be better. Depth chart https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020121318&fh=90 Better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 18z GFS might be a Top 5 december snow for IAD, MRB, HGR, and BWI. Great run for the big cities and N&W. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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