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December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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I am way too tired to look at stuff right now in-depth, but there isn’t much change to my previous thoughts. I may slightly move areas like Northern Carroll/Balt/Harford Counties into a more favorable position to Max potential with the system. There will likely be two monster bands that setup during this event once the trough goes negative and closes off somewhere over the Mid Atlantic. There’s been a history of the -2 and -9C isotherm at 7H having distinct bands develop within intense cyclogenesis and was very apparent in 2016 with Baltimore to Philly clocked by the -2 and I-81 with the -9. Someone I know did some research and a paper on it, so I’ll have to look more into it.

In either case, deformation is where higher ratio fluff will pump totals rapidly for whoever gets them. I wouldn’t waste time on the NAM beyond Monday right now. ICON is not a model I’d put much stock in. Focus on UL progression at 5H on the GFS/CMC/ECMWF, the track of the 7H low, and frontogenic placement during Wed afternoon and evening. Also, follow the finger of + Theta-E advection. Where that points will be where the WCB and CCB meet to help form the deformation axis. There could be a sneaky TROWAL in the mix too for our NE areas that could provide an E-W enhancement for snow. The Euro was showing a little flavor of that on its run across SePA. I’m gonna watch GFS come in, but I may also fall back asleep. I’ll catch y’all tonight regardless. Fingers crossed for HH


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