clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We tend to almost always out perform qpf expectations with that wind flow Agree. It is actually plenty wet. Almost 2 inches QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: Not great if you want the boom factor closer to metro areas. Not really any huge hits in there. Weird. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: This panel isn't very useful. Back edge is moving through and the low is pulling away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Not great if you want the boom factor closer to metro areas. Not really any huge hits in there. Weird. I had the same thought. And more whiffs than I remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 31 minutes ago, jaydreb said: No, please keep analyzing the DC metro area. Thanks. That was just my snark 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Lows over Hagerstown will def torch most places 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Interestkng theory...anybody have thoughts on this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Super excited for this storm, even down here by Staunton! Last time we had more than 5" was December 9, 2018 when we had 7". Can't wait for my kids to be able to see a real snowstorm again. Even with the warmer GFS (vs the Euro and CMC), I never lose 850 or 925 temps, even towards the tail end of the storm with the southerly upper level winds. I don't have the banding upside potential that many in this forum have, but with my elevation and the CAD firmly in place I won't be sweating temps towards game time and I will take that trade off. Looking like 8-12" here, with snow during the entire daylight hours on Wednesday and ending Thursday after midnight. Hoping the upper thermals trend more towards the CMC and the Euro solutions and the track trends towards the GFS for all you folks in the metros and that you get just crushed by the CCB and banding as the low heads OTS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 EPS is tightening the goalposts...as it should. But if you are from 95 NW odds have slightly improved each of the last several runs. trends mean more importantly odds of 3”/6” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Good thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I’m finally more in the fall colors for probability than spring colors 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, CAPE said: I approve. Now get Forky on here to tell us how this will happen. High pressure will make it go right . Euro just realizing how strong the high is. problem it may be too strong and no allow to come up north at all. Let you know Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Where’s Ji with the JMA because it is the most south of any model looks like lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 41 minutes ago, jaydreb said: No, please keep analyzing the DC metro area. Thanks. @psuhoffman is vital to this community and should have free reign to dissect, interpret, inpart his knowledge. I’ve learn like 70% of what I know by reading his stuff over past 6-7 years. The remainder is made up of @Bob Chill which I still haven’t gotten a whereabouts for him. Hope he’s ok. He’s awesome too. 36 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Basically only difference between gfs ens and ec ens is like 30-40 miles more south for gfs. Actually pretty impressive models are that close multiple days out. Shows how far weather modeling has come. 13 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Process of elimination. The dc hits are disappearing. Becoming clearer for dc proper, unfortunately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 EPS is tightening the goalposts...as it should. But if you are from 95 NW odds have slightly improved each of the last several runs. trends mean more importantly odds of 3”/6” Lol I didn't spend this much time tracking only to get 6. Double digits or bust 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Not great if you want the boom factor closer to metro areas. Not really any huge hits in there. Weird. Thankfully meteorology wins over modelology 100% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12z EPS gives the mason-dixon zones a 90% chance of 6". Works for me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Too early for this? Lol looks decent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: My God..I am west of route 28 by 3 miles...sneaked in the back door on that one 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: @psuhoffman is vital to this community and should have free reign to dissect, interpret, inpart his knowledge. I’ve learn like 70% of what I know by reading his stuff over past 6-7 years. The remainder is made up of @Bob Chill which I still haven’t gotten a whereabouts for him. Hope he’s ok. He’s awesome too. Basically only difference between gfs ens and ec ens is like 30-40 miles more south for gfs. Actually pretty impressive models are that close multiple days out. Shows how far weather modeling has come. Process of elimination. The dc hits are disappearing. Becoming clearer for dc proper, unfortunately Many have asked about Bob Chill. We don’t know. He hasn’t showed since March. I think it’s best we stop asking, he will pop up when he wants to, and we all hope he is well. Let’s try to keep the thread on the threat 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 NOAA Hurricane Hunters will fly missions on 12/16 at 0z for upper-level data support for this weeks winter storm. 7 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z EPS gives the mason-dixon zones a 90% chance of 6". Works for me. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: My God..I am west of route 28 by 3 miles...sneaked in the back door on that one I've got about a 10 mile cushion. I just warmed up the toy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 From CCB! on 33andrain: "Barring some significant change in the sampled vortmax, if I was a betting man, I'd expect the NW "trend" on most models (if that term even applies) to flip in the other direction by tonight/tomorrow morning's suite & tick SE." 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Wonderdog said: I've got about a 10 mile cushion. I just warmed up the toy! Finally. Was wondering where you were. This one looks legit for the west of the fall line. Hope I don’t regret saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Finally. Was wondering where you were. This one looks legit for the west of the fall line. Hope I don’t regret saying that. Yeah, don't jinx us. It only took 4 pulls to start the toy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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