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December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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Super excited for this storm, even down here by Staunton!  Last time we had more than 5" was December 9, 2018 when we had 7".  Can't wait for my kids to be able to see a real snowstorm again.

Even with the warmer GFS (vs the Euro and CMC), I never lose 850 or 925 temps, even towards the tail end of the storm with the southerly upper level winds.  I don't have the banding upside potential that many in this forum have, but with my elevation and the CAD firmly in place I won't be sweating temps towards game time and I will take that trade off.

Looking like 8-12" here, with snow during the entire daylight hours on Wednesday and ending Thursday after midnight.  Hoping the upper thermals trend more towards the CMC and the Euro solutions and the track trends towards the GFS for all you folks in the metros and that you get just crushed by the CCB and banding as the low heads OTS!

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41 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

No, please keep analyzing the DC metro area.  Thanks.  

@psuhoffman is vital to this community and should have free reign to dissect, interpret, inpart his knowledge. I’ve learn like 70% of what I know by reading his stuff over past 6-7 years. The remainder is made up of @Bob Chill which I still haven’t gotten a whereabouts for him. Hope he’s ok. He’s awesome too.

36 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

FB_IMG_1607886429318.jpg

Basically only difference between gfs ens and ec ens is like 30-40 miles more south for gfs. Actually pretty impressive models are that close multiple days out. Shows how far weather modeling has come.

13 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

FB_IMG_1607887076967.thumb.jpg.a9aed9ee8505718fb4bd09d55295584f.jpgFB_IMG_1607887072128.thumb.jpg.7e31717df69f49380a4f638c961d6be0.jpg

Process of elimination. The dc hits are disappearing. Becoming clearer for dc proper, unfortunately 

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EPS is tightening the goalposts...as it should. But if you are from 95 NW odds have slightly improved each of the last several runs. 
 
trends 
mean
652CDC47-BE34-4951-97A6-68CC36DC42C7.gif.49b93e74ce389a1685fb328b4d76b26d.gif
more importantly odds of 3”/6”
386AD546-D747-4CB4-93DB-D7E73D0C9EF1.gif.16f71a196b21d645bea394a8762865a9.gif
D8B1AA8A-E348-4D59-9CF5-E36BC458C2F7.gif.1f8f88b553e7afd315c6d52d90c00a32.gif
 
Lol I didn't spend this much time tracking only to get 6. Double digits or bust
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15 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

@psuhoffman is vital to this community and should have free reign to dissect, interpret, inpart his knowledge. I’ve learn like 70% of what I know by reading his stuff over past 6-7 years. The remainder is made up of @Bob Chill which I still haven’t gotten a whereabouts for him. Hope he’s ok. He’s awesome too.

Basically only difference between gfs ens and ec ens is like 30-40 miles more south for gfs. Actually pretty impressive models are that close multiple days out. Shows how far weather modeling has come.

Process of elimination. The dc hits are disappearing. Becoming clearer for dc proper, unfortunately 

Many have asked about Bob Chill. We don’t know. He hasn’t showed since March. I think it’s best we stop asking, he will pop up when he wants to, and we all hope he is well. Let’s try to keep the thread on the threat :) 

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