BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: Not bad If I may ask what is max-res? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Not bad That beltway gradient can go eat a dick 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 That EC low track is a bit too far west for my liking, but with the season relatively early in terms of the warmer Bay and Atlantic shelf water temps, cannot be shocked by this. Warm layer looks to be 850-800mb, though for us in the southern/eastern burbs, the EC track would imply the entire surface layer above freezing. Having said all of this, I'm not sure how the EC gives MBY 8" (Bowie-Crofton). Not enough duration on the front end for a good thump. So, at least for us along and east of I-95, I think we're putting our chips in on the backside CCB. As PSUHoffman said, the backside CCB/deformation axis is such a low percentage occurrence in this region; a football analogy is the fade pass on 3rd and long. However with a system like this this, going all-in (or not) on the backside CCB can make or break a forecast. Timing and thus location of the more rapid deepening and strengthening low-mid layer FGEN will be pivotal. When it happens soon enough for our region, the n-s or nne-ssw deformation banding also leads to a reduction in the westerly or downsloping low-level component -- which is more typical around here as we more often dry out sooner than later. Keeping my expectations low until I see a more definitive trend toward a 12/18/09 setup. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Not bad That is a sharp cutoff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Seems like the Euro ensembles look a bit warmer at 850 than the operational, and the inverse is true for the GFS. Which means I'll still be hanging on each and every run throughout the day. Just gotta hope the ticks are in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 46 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 7 and 10pm colder Are those light green "fingers" for lack of a better word, in VA indicative of the negative tilt beginning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I saw that...that warm pocket gets right to our door then stalls and sits there for 6 hours...I don't buy that. Some of that period we are getting .2 QPF per hour. I would adjust that. Even with that there we would likely be puking snow/sleet mix during that 6 hour period...low ratio but we would likely still go way over a foot...just not those stupid totals on the clown maps. But again, worrying about a little warm layer pocket like that and banding at this range is useless. I am analyzing for the DC/Baltimore area where most people in here are. Not only talking to the 3 people that live near me. But sorry. I will try to focus on my yard more. Nah, dude. Throw some IQ down for those who sweat the 850s/925s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 19 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Has there ever been a winter where D.C. gets a big hit in December then nothing the rest of the season? That's what many winter outlooks would show considering this storm. 20 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Has there ever been a winter where D.C. gets a big hit in December then nothing the rest of the season? That's what many winter outlooks would show considering this storm. I mentioned this a couple of days ago but I don’t think there was much around DCA after the nice December storm in 1973. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 A few more ticks south with the backside banding would be nice...but whoever is the lucky recipient will get quite a show. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Not bad Looks like I need to measure a hundred feet farther north than usual to tack on another 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpringfieldSkins Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The rain/snow line looks like heartbreak for most of FFX Co, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Cut the 12z euro ensemble snowfall in half and it's still a legit warning criteria event for everyone NW of I-95. That's more than all of last year before Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, SpringfieldSkins said: The rain/snow line looks like heartbreak for most of FFX Co, right? For us in the eastern portion of the county at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: A few more ticks south with the backside banding would be nice...but whoever is the lucky recipient will get quite a show. That’s pretty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Forkyfork on Twitter said that a LP won’t hug or tuck the coast with that much CAD modeled. Is this accurate? Please explain and get the models to shift 50 miles East. That’s what us DC folks need now. East. Go east. Fish storm. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 For those on the SE edge, the EPS has improved slightly over the last couple runs. We just need about 8-10 more ticks and we good to go! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 EPS mean seems a bit of a weaker storm and a tick south, stronger 50/50 and slightly stronger high pressure behind it. Probably good I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, H2O said: Forkyfork on Twitter said that a LP won’t hug or tuck the coast with that much CAD modeled. Is this accurate? Please explain and get the models to shift 50 miles East. That’s what us DC folks need now. East. Go east. Fish storm. I approve. Now get Forky on here to tell us how this will happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: For us in the eastern portion of the county at least. Dont envy you guys, have a feeling i’m gonna be spending all day Wednesday sweating in Centreville as the mix line sets up over my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Time for a beer. Off to banter. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: This seems like a pretty big step back if I'm remember the prior couple of runs correctly. Clearly, ensembles do not agree with op, but would have to see individual low placements to see if we have a few tucked way inside skewing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: EPS mean seems a bit of a weaker storm and a tick south, stronger 50/50 and slightly stronger high pressure behind it. Probably good I think. Keep talking dirty, squid 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 52 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The Euro is beautiful. We miss out on the ccb stuff out here. But it is just hours upon hours of snow. Great run. We tend to almost always out perform qpf expectations with that wind flow 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 53 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Does anyone know what the thermals looked like heading in to 2009? I know it broke way colder than it was supposed to.. but I am curious to know how it was forecasted leading up to the event. It was much much colder then. I remember the neighbor and I talking the day before and me pointing out the rock hard frozen ground 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 26 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: So when can we expect to see your forecast? Tomorrow? I’ll throw out a guess later today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, H2O said: Forkyfork on Twitter said that a LP won’t hug or tuck the coast with that much CAD modeled. Is this accurate? Please explain and get the models to shift 50 miles East. That’s what us DC folks need now. East. Go east. Fish storm. Partly why we want that high to slow down and not move across Maine. If it does then the clockwise fliw tucksthe low closer to the coast. If not then low gets further east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 1989-90 waves hello The mere mention of that winter should be banned on this forum 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 27 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: ENS looks warmer then OP euro I have not dug into the members yet...might not for a while busy. But from previous runs the ens were always warmer on those mean plots because the handful of crazy cutters that run up the Piedmont were skewing the mean. The colder runs aren’t as much “colder” along the edges as the warm outliers are warmer. Plus I think the lower resolution of the ensembles makes them have a warmer representation in general. Not picking up the extreme meso features and CAD as well. I would focus more on track of the Eps and focus on the ops for meso details like exact thermal structure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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