Scraff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 3K seemed so close to something good for my location. Rain/sleet gets to me for several hours but almost held off. Adjustments needed don't seem that great. You know we will flip for a bit. Hopefully only for a short time before we flip back for some deform love. It’s going to be fun just watching that line teeter totter around. Your new move spot should help you a touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The NAM says this isn't even a MA forum storm. It mostly rains on the parts of the forum where 95% of the posters live. What are you looking at? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: U said it was going to be a dry storm . Euro and 3k are juicy juicy fruit Feel free to hang your hat on the NAM dude. I'm sure you are getting three feet from this. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40westwx said: What are you looking at? The map on Pivotal looks nothing like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Can’t wait for the flood warning in dc keep moving the low west and we have an outside shot at a tornado watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: U said it was going to be a dry storm . Euro and 3k are juicy juicy fruit Yeah. Nothing historic about 15 inches from southern VA to Boston in mid December according to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: The map on Pivotal looks nothing like that. Pivotal snow maps have a known bias to not be the best. Almost any other site is better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. Nothing historic about 15 inches from southern VA to Boston in mid December according to him. I hope you crush it, dude. But this doesn't look like a HECS anywhere near the cities down here to me. I think 12-15" is a good range for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: That means someone is getting crushed on the fall line then lol Correct. The 3k isn't a bad thing to see. We just want models in our camp showing decent thermals and good QPF. Let's hope that's the trend of the 0z suite. The NAM has nudged SE if we're being honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: We all need to write Uccellini and get them to speed up the replacement of the NAM.... let’s see, it overstates QPF, it’s too warm, it”s too cold and clueless outside 2 hours. We should not pay the bill for the electricity to run this model!!! But you got to love the 50 inches!!! Do you actually have a clue what you are even saying? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Pivotal snow maps have a known bias to not be the best. Almost any other site is better. Weatherbell is not better. It is way too high. Maybe TT is the best free option. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: That's crazy. Look at all those lows near or west of the bay at our latitude. It seems like the way east outliers are now skewing the op. 100%. The OP run is definitely out of whack. I’d push the SLP at least 20-25 miles east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: That means someone is getting crushed on the fall line then lol Since Baltimore city is consistently right on the fall line in the modeling for this one...I'll take it! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Weatherbell is not better. It is way too high. Maybe TT is the best free option. Weatherbell or TT would be preferred then cut everything in half and use that as the high number in your range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Not trying to piss in anyone's cornflakes. I hope the western crew gets the three feet the NAM is spitting out. I would sell hard on those totals, but maybe it'll work out. Either way, that crew will do better than the Beltway crew for sure. Just beware the last minute east tics while spiking the football... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Weatherbell is not better. It is way too high. Maybe TT is the best free option. Sell a house and pay for a model ya cheapskate 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: We all need to write Uccellini and get them to speed up the replacement of the NAM.... let’s see, it overstates QPF, it’s too warm, it”s too cold and clueless outside 2 hours. We should not pay the bill for the electricity to run this model!!! But you got to love the 50 inches!!! Come on man. There is no better entertainment on earth than a NAM rum 36 hours before a storm. Worth every penny. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 0Z RGEM out to 48 hours on this site: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html (be sure to select 0Z 12/15 run) Seems to be colder with a bigger thump in front (4-5 hrs of snow for DC proper), IAD looks to barely stay all frozen through 0Z (based on sfc low position, that should be the max extent of mixing). Should be interesting when full run is in. 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Wow, check out the difference in the positioning of the high between the 3km NAM nest and the HRRR! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2020121500&fh=18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Do you actually have a clue what you are even saying? Yes. The NAM should be replaced before 2024. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Damn.. Cut it by 30 % to 40% and it's still awesome the meso-low @MN Transplant mentioned earlier may not be hurting us on temps too much on its own (though I don't think its helping) but it seemed to portend some crazy gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 whats going on here lol 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: whats going on here lol I don’t know but I like it. Def a CAD signature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Damn.. Cut it by 30 % to 40% and it's still awesome it's an interesting storm regardless of the outcome. that's why i'm not getting too high or low with this, esp in mid-dec without an arctic airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Not trying to piss in anyone's cornflakes. I hope the western crew gets the three feet the NAM is spitting out. I would sell hard on those totals, but maybe it'll work out. Either way, that crew will do better than the Beltway crew for sure. Just beware the last minute east tics while spiking the football... I think we’ll see a slight east tick or two tomorrow/game time. I’m hoping for 1” QPF which every model gives me (with breathing room assuming there’s tics). No one is getting 3’ from this but I wouldn’t be surprised for a very localized report of 20” especially somewhere close to the mixing line in N central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 With those winds and a bit more warm air flooding DC it might be able to be named a tropical system 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Before the gfs runs I’m hoping for some help. This storm as modeled, less in the euro but even there, seems to have a precip field they just unwinds as it strengthens. There’s no consolidation or wrap up. It just spreads out ahead of the low as it goes up the coast. There seems to be no wrapping of the precip. Just seems odd. I’m sure the models aren’t wrong but I just don’t understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Yes. The NAM should be replaced before 2024. Perhaps you should take an introductory course in NWP so that you can actually learn how to interpret a model. Or perhaps read up on some of the material discussed earlier on how to use the NAM at this range. You don’t look at the exact amounts, you watch the trends and the evolution and what the run to run differences/similarities are. Rarely does anyone take one model 100% for qpf, it’s always a blend. Most important information is how the model is handling the moving pieces that will become the weather event. These higher “snowfall” amounts you are seeing do not take into account sleet/ice which can jack up the amounts. What I take from the run is the penetration of the warm air...good front end thump then more expansive mixing and rain then this AM. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: whats going on here lol Nam shows camp David getting 50, personalities clashing with others they aren’t familiar with, people are getting testy 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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