Cobalt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Man, if we could just get rid of this double-barreled look on the 3k... 996 at the benchmark man. For the smart people here, I'm curious, how often do these double barrel type setups happen with nor'easters? Do they verify the way that the models forecast them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: DC Beltway gets a last moment stick save at 3z with the back side whitening the ground on the 3km. Hopefully as big a save as game 2 in Vegas 2 years ago, but more likely one where it still trickles in and we lose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Man, if we could just get rid of this double-barreled look on the 3k... 996 at the benchmark man. Hang on...is this whole double-barreled thing what's screwing up the track for us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 appears to be a respectable front-end thump for those of us north of the DC Beltway Wednesday afternoon. Temperature profiles have no margin for error, but verbatim, it would be cranking here: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k going bonkers on QPF. 1.8” here, 2.6” Cumberland, and lollis of 4” on the border of Washington and Frederick counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The worst. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k snow maps are pretty Euro esque with huge totals in the favored zones. 15+ 795 in Baltimore W to US 15. There is actually a 50" lolli over Camp David lolol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 10pm heading back SE 925/850/surface....please someone explain why it does not snow when all thes levels are below freezing west of 95? What don’t I understand? There is a warm layer coming in off the Atlantic down your way in DC Baltimore area that warm air layer gets scoured away but barely up here in southern pa by PHL due to the storm hitting the breaks and moving off the coast east bound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: For the smart people here, I'm curious, how often do these double barrel type setups happen with nor'easters? Do they verify the way that the models forecast them? 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hang on...is this whole double-barreled thing what's screwing up the track for us? It looks like the two low situation is due to a meso-low from the NC thunderstorm complex on the 3km NAM. Not sure that it plays a huge role in the thermal profile up by us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 WB 3k NAM, actually if this verifies a lot of people will be happy and roofs will be collapsing in N. MD 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: 3k snow maps are pretty Euro esque with huge totals in the favored zones. 15+ 795 in Baltimore W to US 15. There is actually a 50" lolli over Camp David lolol. The maps are out of control. Harrisonburg with 24” in 6 hours? Come on. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yikes at those warm panels on the 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, MN Transplant said: The maps are out of control. Harrisonburg with 24” in 6 hours? Come on. bUt SnOwMaPs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 3k NAM, actually if this verifies a lot of people will be happy and roofs will be collapsing in N. MD 50?! LMAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The maps are out of control. Harrisonburg with 24” in 6 hours? Come on. Haha I know they're way out to lunch. Decent evolution however and a definite improvement up top and with sfc reflection vs the 18z. We also do have to like it continues to juice up more and more each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The maps are out of control. Harrisonburg with 24” in 6 hours? Come on. the world record is 12" an hour. that's nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Sniffing sleet but I'll take it.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 50" isn't enough. Just sayin'. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Sniffing sleet but I'll take it.. You literally maximize the lift in the DGZ. You'd even super saturate with that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: You literally maximize the lift in the DGZ. You'd even super saturate with that. Agreed, that is a sick sounding for rates in the WAA piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 The 3km NAM has a QPF problem with upslope over low-to-moderate terrain. Hence the 4”+ at Camp David. Those values can be ignored. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Can’t wait for the flood warning in dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, mappy said: bUt SnOwMaPs! F it my in laws got 50 inches on that run.. I am gonna head up there for a sleep over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3K seemed so close to something good for my location. Rain/sleet gets to me for several hours but almost held off. Adjustments needed don't seem that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The NAM says this isn't even a MA forum storm. It mostly rains on the parts of the forum where 95% of the posters live. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: The 3km NAM has a QPF problem with upslope over low-to-moderate terrain. Hence the 4”+ at Camp David. Those values can be ignored. We do like the 2.5"+ swath across the M/D area and S PA though. Might as well have the NAM unload the best QPF outcomes for us to at least give a chance when the 850's crash back S. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: We do like the 2.5"+ swath across the M/D area and S PA though. Might as well have the NAM unload the best QPF outcomes for us to at least give a chance when the 850's crash back S. Yeah, the low tucking in and stalling before scooting east really plays well for NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 3k NAM, actually if this verifies a lot of people will be happy and roofs will be collapsing in N. MD The NAM just decided that Camp David's elevation is 8,000 feet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 We all need to write Uccellini and get them to speed up the replacement of the NAM.... let’s see, it overstates QPF, it’s too warm, it”s too cold and clueless outside 2 hours. We should not pay the bill for the electricity to run this model!!! But you got to love the 50 inches!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That is the craziest NAM run in history. Bar none. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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