40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, mappy said: lol. No it doesn’t The last four runs have shown 8-15 inches at BWI. 15 would be a HECs for December. I think 13 would be too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: I mean I’m rooting for that and all but... COULD this happen? Sure. But this is really misleading to the public to showcase a model showing this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Top 5 for that date in Dec maybe? That is plausible. December DC Baltimore Dulles 16.6" 2009 20.4" 1966 24.2" 1966 16.2" 1962 20.1" 2009 21.4" 2009 16.1" 1966 17.1" 1904 15.9" 1969 14.5" 1932 15.6" 1960 14.3" 1962 13.2" 1904,1945 14.7" 1932 11.9" 1982 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: December DC Baltimore Dulles 16.6" 2009 20.4" 1966 24.2" 1966 16.2" 1962 20.1" 2009 21.4" 2009 16.1" 1966 17.1" 1904 15.9" 1969 14.5" 1932 15.6" 1960 14.3" 1962 13.2" 1904,1945 14.7" 1932 11.9" 1982 Still not a hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, Scraff said: I mean I’m rooting for that and all but... That's a bold move Cotton... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 With real time access to weather models and actual meteorologists on this board, people still watch the local news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: COULD this happen? Sure. But this is really misleading to the public to showcase a model showing this. These #’s are plausible for FDK, HGR, and Westminster. But not as much S & E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 #5 all time December snow at IAD is only 11.9 inches? That shocks me actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40westwx said: The last four runs have shown 8-15 inches at BWI. 15 would be a HECs for December. I think 13 would be too... okie dokie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40westwx said: December DC Baltimore Dulles 16.6" 2009 20.4" 1966 24.2" 1966 16.2" 1962 20.1" 2009 21.4" 2009 16.1" 1966 17.1" 1904 15.9" 1969 14.5" 1932 15.6" 1960 14.3" 1962 13.2" 1904,1945 14.7" 1932 11.9" 1982 It's probably possible it could crack top 10 December snowfalls all time at BWI and maybe top five at Dulles if things really broke right. Given the axis of snowfall though, this is going to be a storm where BWI probably reports a total that is not very reflective of what most of the Baltimore region receives, and that's before you get into the fact that they seem to always measure low even when compared to spotter reports down the street. I used to be pretty close to BWI and the discrepancies were ridiculous, especially for the biggest storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: #5 all time December snow at IAD is only 11.9 inches? That shocks me actually. Thought the same thing...maybe records go back further for the cities than IAD? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haudidoody Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Thought the same thing...maybe records go back further for the cities than IAD? Yes, IAD only goes back to like 1962 or something close to that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Thought the same thing...maybe records go back further for the cities than IAD? They do. I think IAD only goes back to the 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Thought the same thing...maybe records go back further for the cities than IAD? Pretty sure you’re spot on. I believe Dulles began in the 60’s? Someone confirm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Good thing we've moved on from arguing about the models to what's a top 5 HECS in Dec 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Thought the same thing...maybe records go back further for the cities than IAD? IAD snowfall only goes to 1960. Good call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, H2O said: Good thing we've moved on from arguing about the models to what's a top 5 HECS in Dec My bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, Scraff said: I mean I’m rooting for that and all but... I'm a little surprised at this...Tom is usually a more conservative snow forecaster! Why this? Lol (not that all of us would jump at the chance of this...haha) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I chuckled at this headline...sums up what forecasting a storm like this is like! 2-18" folks 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 WBAL had a pretty good map earlier, at least prior to any 12z/18z changes. I don't get just ripping the RPM snow map as a forecast. WJZ has this pretty terrible looking maps, but I guess 4-6" around Baltimore is reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I've been telling my kids 1-15". Feeling good about it. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: WBAL had a pretty good map earlier, at least prior to any 12z/18z changes. I don't get just ripping the RPM snow map as a forecast. WJZ has this pretty terrible looking maps, but I guess 4-6" around Baltimore is reasonable. What's that white spot just north of D.C.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, Yeoman said: With real time access to weather models and actual meteorologists on this board, people still watch the local news? I agree...Haven't watched a weather forecast on the news for probably 10 years. I watched Tommy T there and besides thinking how much older he looks the graphics and delivery actually brought back memories! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: What's that white spot just north of D.C.? Ha, I noticed that, too. I'm in part of that area. I'm just going to assume whiteout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I've been telling my kids 1-15". Feeling good about it. That is the one crappy thing about all of your family and friends knowing you are a weather geek. Texts all day with "How much for". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 If there is any hope left for the corridor, the 12z Euro did reduce ground temps by 3 degrees from 6z. If that holds or continues to trend colder at 18z. We have some life...until 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm a little surprised at this...Tom is usually a more conservative snow forecaster! Why this? Lol (not that all of us would jump at the chance of this...haha) That’s not actually his forecast. He’s showing some RPM model run, so yeah the headline is misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: That is the one crappy thing about all of your family and friends knowing you are a weather geek. Texts all day with "How much for". I made a long FB post today as I've been getting lots of questions from family and friends. Here it is for anyone who cares: Major winter storm for Maryland Wednesday into Thursday Snow will start late morning Wednesday from south to north across the state. It will mix with sleet, and possibly rain, for much of Maryland outside of northern Baltimore county to Frederick and points north. Sleet will eventually turn back to snow later in the evening Wednesday before tapering off early Thursday morning. The gradient between a little slush and snow to a LOT of snow is really sharp. Could be as little as ~20-30 miles in places. Picking that exact boundary is very difficult in advance. Elevation and latitude is critical. Higher elevation locations and locations farther north will get more snow, all else being equal. Numbers below include sleet, and there could be a lot of sleet in places. Howard county: 9-15" in Mt. Airy, 6-12" west Ellicott City, 4-8" Columbia, 2-5" eastern Elkridge. Harford county: 10-18" northwest, 6-12" Bel Air, 4-8" Abingdon, 3-6" Aberdeen and Havre de Grace. Baltimore city: 3-6" 495 beltway: 3-6" north side near Bethesda, 2-5" most elsewhere, 1-3" south side. DC: 2-5" north DC, 1-3" downtown. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 My first and final accumulation forecast for Wednesday: 5 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Fozz said: That’s not actually his forecast. He’s showing some RPM model run, so yeah the headline is misleading. Which is kind of the point. They had a forecast. Why stop using it for that garbage? P.S. Go RPM!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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