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December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Top 5 for that date in Dec maybe?  That is plausible. 

December
DC
Baltimore
Dulles
16.6"
2009
20.4"
1966
24.2"
1966
16.2"
1962
20.1"
2009
21.4"
2009
16.1"
1966
17.1"
1904
15.9"
1969
14.5"
1932
15.6"
1960
14.3"
1962
13.2"
1904,1945
14.7"
1932
11.9"
1982
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6 minutes ago, 40westwx said:
December
DC
Baltimore
Dulles
16.6"
2009
20.4"
1966
24.2"
1966
16.2"
1962
20.1"
2009
21.4"
2009
16.1"
1966
17.1"
1904
15.9"
1969
14.5"
1932
15.6"
1960
14.3"
1962
13.2"
1904,1945
14.7"
1932
11.9"
1982

It's probably possible it could crack top 10 December snowfalls all time at BWI and maybe top five at Dulles if things really broke right. Given the axis of snowfall though, this is going to be a storm where BWI probably reports a total that is not very reflective of what most of the Baltimore region receives, and that's before you get into the fact that they seem to always measure low even when compared to spotter reports down the street. I used to be pretty close to BWI and the discrepancies were ridiculous, especially for the biggest storms.

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

WBAL had a pretty good map earlier, at least prior to any 12z/18z changes.  I don't get just ripping the RPM snow map as a forecast. WJZ has this pretty terrible looking maps, but I guess 4-6" around Baltimore is reasonable.

 

What's that white spot just north of D.C.?

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8 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

With real time access to weather models and actual meteorologists on this board, people still watch the local news?

I agree...Haven't watched a weather forecast on the news for probably 10 years. I watched Tommy T there and besides thinking how much older he looks the graphics and delivery actually brought back memories! lol

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm a little surprised at this...Tom is usually a more conservative snow forecaster! Why this? Lol (not that all of us would jump at the chance of this...haha)

That’s not actually his forecast. He’s showing some RPM model run, so yeah the headline is misleading.

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

That is the one crappy thing about all of your family and friends knowing you are a weather geek. Texts all day with "How much for".

I made a long FB post today as I've been getting lots of questions from family and friends.  Here it is for anyone who cares:

 

Major winter storm for Maryland Wednesday into Thursday
Snow will start late morning Wednesday from south to north across the state. It will mix with sleet, and possibly rain, for much of Maryland outside of northern Baltimore county to Frederick and points north. Sleet will eventually turn back to snow later in the evening Wednesday before tapering off early Thursday morning. The gradient between a little slush and snow to a LOT of snow is really sharp. Could be as little as ~20-30 miles in places. Picking that exact boundary is very difficult in advance. Elevation and latitude is critical. Higher elevation locations and locations farther north will get more snow, all else being equal. Numbers below include sleet, and there could be a lot of sleet in places.
Howard county: 9-15" in Mt. Airy, 6-12" west Ellicott City, 4-8" Columbia, 2-5" eastern Elkridge.
Harford county: 10-18" northwest, 6-12" Bel Air, 4-8" Abingdon, 3-6" Aberdeen and Havre de Grace.
Baltimore city: 3-6"
495 beltway: 3-6" north side near Bethesda, 2-5" most elsewhere, 1-3" south side.
DC: 2-5" north DC, 1-3" downtown.
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