ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, mappy said: Tommy T expanded the 12” area south more than Ava’s map this morning That's surprising. He is usually very conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The Euro has a better HP over the top. And if I have to have only one model in my corner for a storm I am taking the Euro every single time. Lows are going to be in the mid 20s for many Tues night in to Wednesday.. that cold isnt going anywhere when the precips starts.. that HP is causing lows in the single digits and teens for folks just to our north.. thats some serious cold air. With a develop lp system to our south.. the prevailing flow means that cold air is going to be pulled down in to our region. Its only at the height of the storm that we need to worry about the column.. and even then it might be cold enough at the lower levels to support a sleet fest. Think about this.. it almost snowed here today and it was like 65 degrees yesterday. We get a similar track on Wed and we have an abundance of Cold Air. Thats why I think the Euro is dead on with its tucked in low pressure and relatively south R/S line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: WBAL riding RPM which says 10”+ for areas north of DC-BWI... I say it every time it comes up but that model was scary good in the 2013 March storm. Uncanny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Meanwhile WUSA9s map would bring out mobs with pitchforks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Climate175 said: I won't as I remember it's only mid-December and I-95 and East is not climatology favored to get big snow at this time. If you're at those expectations, you can't be disappointed. If you having high expectations of a big hit of snow, then.... I have gigantic expectations. 12 out of 16 runs of the models have given me a HECs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: WBAL riding RPM which says 10”+ for areas north of DC-BWI... I’m personally more a fan of the Deep Thunder model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I really like the euro 12z run. nothing crazy like 30”+. Around 4-5” for D.C. seems like a good bet with the data right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40westwx said: I have gigantic expectations. 12 out of 16 runs of the models have given me a HECs. I'm not sure where you are located, but If you are N and W of I-95, then that would be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Climate175 said: I'm not sure where you are located, but If you are N and W of I-95, then that would be expected. Nobody is getting a hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Nobody is getting a hecs. The Euro shows top five for BWI. Thats a HECs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40westwx said: The Euro shows top five for BWI. Thats a HECs Feb 9-10 2010 is ranked 10th at BWI with 19.5". https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_storm-pr#TopDaySnowfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40westwx said: The Euro shows top five for BWI. Thats a HECs lol. No it doesn’t 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Euro showed 22” here in Westminster for the Parr’s crew.. that’s likely overdone but I guess would be borderline HECS. There have been a lot more 20” events up this way than at the airports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, mappy said: lol. No it doesn’t Maybe he means top 5 December? Still not catching the top 5 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: WBAL riding RPM which says 10”+ for areas north of DC-BWI... I’ve always thought that model was more on the conservative side. Interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Maybe he means top 5 December? Still not catching the top 5 though. Top 5 for that date in Dec maybe? That is plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: WBAL riding RPM which says 10”+ for areas north of DC-BWI... https://www.wbaltv.com/article/bulk-of-snow-storm-to-come-wednesday-night/34967831 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, ravensrule said: https://www.wbaltv.com/article/bulk-of-snow-storm-to-come-wednesday-night/34967831 I mean I’m rooting for that and all but... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: WBAL riding RPM which says 10”+ for areas north of DC-BWI... If I was going to go down with a ship, it would not be the RPM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: I mean I’m rooting for that and all but... It doesn't seem realistic right now, but i sure as hell hope he is correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, mappy said: lol. No it doesn’t The last four runs have shown 8-15 inches at BWI. 15 would be a HECs for December. I think 13 would be too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: I mean I’m rooting for that and all but... COULD this happen? Sure. But this is really misleading to the public to showcase a model showing this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Top 5 for that date in Dec maybe? That is plausible. December DC Baltimore Dulles 16.6" 2009 20.4" 1966 24.2" 1966 16.2" 1962 20.1" 2009 21.4" 2009 16.1" 1966 17.1" 1904 15.9" 1969 14.5" 1932 15.6" 1960 14.3" 1962 13.2" 1904,1945 14.7" 1932 11.9" 1982 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: December DC Baltimore Dulles 16.6" 2009 20.4" 1966 24.2" 1966 16.2" 1962 20.1" 2009 21.4" 2009 16.1" 1966 17.1" 1904 15.9" 1969 14.5" 1932 15.6" 1960 14.3" 1962 13.2" 1904,1945 14.7" 1932 11.9" 1982 Still not a hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, Scraff said: I mean I’m rooting for that and all but... That's a bold move Cotton... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 With real time access to weather models and actual meteorologists on this board, people still watch the local news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: COULD this happen? Sure. But this is really misleading to the public to showcase a model showing this. These #’s are plausible for FDK, HGR, and Westminster. But not as much S & E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 #5 all time December snow at IAD is only 11.9 inches? That shocks me actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40westwx said: The last four runs have shown 8-15 inches at BWI. 15 would be a HECs for December. I think 13 would be too... okie dokie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40westwx said: December DC Baltimore Dulles 16.6" 2009 20.4" 1966 24.2" 1966 16.2" 1962 20.1" 2009 21.4" 2009 16.1" 1966 17.1" 1904 15.9" 1969 14.5" 1932 15.6" 1960 14.3" 1962 13.2" 1904,1945 14.7" 1932 11.9" 1982 It's probably possible it could crack top 10 December snowfalls all time at BWI and maybe top five at Dulles if things really broke right. Given the axis of snowfall though, this is going to be a storm where BWI probably reports a total that is not very reflective of what most of the Baltimore region receives, and that's before you get into the fact that they seem to always measure low even when compared to spotter reports down the street. I used to be pretty close to BWI and the discrepancies were ridiculous, especially for the biggest storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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