chris21 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Nope The accumulated snow depth map can be hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I’m sure DC will score some snow on the backend as the low pulls away and 2 inches of 35 degree rain has fallen. Yep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’ll apologize Wednesday evening as needed and not before Fair enough. It could be wrong; I'm just reacting to the folks who said that the NAM showing an inland low track proved that it should be immediately euthanized. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Gfs has a stronger WAA onset than before with good dendritic growth. I’m right in the R/S line during the evening as depicted with an isothermal profile right at freezing below like 900mb. The snow side of that line cashes in. I think one of the reasons the GFS has such warm 2m temps are the rates/precip? Yes the WAA is good on the front (which is certainly what we want vs relying on the backside to score good totals). Low QPF is equating to warmer SFC temps possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 If it makes any of you feel better, at least in NYC the heavy snow is nice for about 10 min after it's done then it is f'ing miserable for days/weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, chris21 said: The accumulated snow depth map can be hit or miss. 10:1 isn't much different in this case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 10:1 isn't much different Kuchera is how we roll around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 What is euro keying in on that gfs is not? Colder temps? Which model typically forecasts temperatures better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs has a stronger WAA onset than before with good dendritic growth. I’m right in the R/S line during the evening as depicted with an isothermal profile right at freezing below like 900mb. The snow side of that line cashes in. It's a crazy close call for us if, ya know, that was the actual real solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I’m sure DC will score some snow on the backend as the low pulls away and 2 inches of 35 degree rain has fallen. Yep. Thats fair. I wont add anything for the climo I dont know. I will just stick with my yard getting buried by every single model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Nope That map isnt right.. you need to show the kuchera one.. it gives you more snow and the more snow the better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs has a stronger WAA onset than before with good dendritic growth. I’m right in the R/S line during the evening as depicted with an isothermal profile right at freezing below like 900mb. The snow side of that line cashes in. Looks like we’ll be straddling that line. Guess all we can do is hope we fall on the snow side and cash in our chips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: That map isnt right.. you need to show the kuchera one.. it gives you more snow and the more snow the better ttb doesn't have kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, high risk said: Fair enough. It could be wrong; I'm just reacting to the folks who said that the NAM showing an inland low track proved that it should be immediately euthanized. Anything that doesn’t give me warning level snow I am tossing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, high risk said: Fair enough. It could be wrong; I'm just reacting to the folks who said that the NAM showing an inland low track proved that it should be immediately euthanized. It’s hard to figure out when a model is just playing into its bias and when it’s on to something. NAM bias is over amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Kiss of Death! LOL! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: It’s hard to figure out when a model is just playing into its bias and when it’s on to something. NAM bias is over amplified. And GFS bias is dry QPF/warm low levels isn’t it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS has the Thursday evening/night light snow stuff as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, DDweatherman said: And GFS bias is dry QPF/warm low levels isn’t it? Not sure about that. It is progressive, particularly at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: GFS is slightly warmer in the mid-levels otherwise there isn’t really a discernible difference from 12z. That being said, won’t do anything to reduce the tension in this thread lol. To reduce the tension...folks can start looking at the medium-long range again? The posts earlier today about the AO oughta soothe some nerves I think it was encouraging! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: What is euro keying in on that gfs is not? Colder temps? Which model typically forecasts temperatures better? The euro is further north and stronger at hour 60 and it looks like it barely has flipped over at that point.. where as the GFS is further south and weaker.. but it is raining for pretty much everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This board will meltdown beyond epic proportions if the 18z Euro follows the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, LeesburgWx said: This board will meltdown beyond epic proportions if the 18z Euro follows the GFS I’m ready. That positive snow depth change map changed my whole outlook. Back wanting first flakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: The euro is further north and stronger at hour 60 and it looks like it barely has flipped over at that point.. where as the GFS is further south and weaker.. but it is raining for pretty much everyone. The Euro has a better HP over the top. And if I have to have only one model in my corner for a storm I am taking the Euro every single time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 NOAA office in Charleston going in very conservative for snowfall for eastern WV. I’m expecting more than 9” inches for Snowshoe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: This board will meltdown beyond epic proportions if the 18z Euro follows the GFS I still think I can get an inch or two here. I don’t think that’s unrealistic for my location west of 95. If I go to pure rain for hours then I might have to reconsider. EDIT: nevermind I looked at the GFS closer. I still think I can get 1-2 inches of rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Tommy T expanded the 12” area south more than Ava’s map this morning 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 WBAL riding RPM which says 10”+ for areas north of DC-BWI... 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: NOAA office in Charleston going in very conservative for snowfall for eastern WV. I’m expecting more than 9” inches for Snowshoe. It better stay on the ground until I get up there... hope something happens while I’m there so I can be relieved of snow drought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: This board will meltdown beyond epic proportions if the 18z Euro follows the GFS I won't as I remember it's only mid-December and I-95 and East is not climatology favored to get big snow at this time. If you're at those expectations, you can't be disappointed. If you having high expectations of a big hit of snow, then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts