baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: rgem looks like a hold. maybe even slightly better than 12z. Would be better if not for some stubborn warmth at the 850 level that pauses snowfall in most of central MD (particularly around I95) that brings down the totals quite a bit there. Hopefully, a pocket like that is something that can change. Though the Nam kinda had a similar pocket too. Though it is a meso at long range, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 To infinity and beyond! Let’s roll happy hour GooFuS! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Would be better if not for some stubborn warmth at the 850 level that pauses snowfall in most of central MD (particularly around I95) that brings down the totals quite a bit there. Hopefully, a pocket like that is something that can change. Though the Nam kinda had a similar pocket too. Though it is a meso at long range, so we'll see. yea, looked a little better at the beginning for the cities. it's a good thing we still have a day of modeling because all it's gonna take is a minor shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Anyone wanna take a guess how much I’m going to get in Snowshoe WV at an elevation of 3,200 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I’m out. Hour 6 on the GFS is a disaster. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Scraff said: I’m out. Hour 6 on the GFS is a disaster. You could see it early LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 21 minutes ago, nj2va said: Hey, at least we have the lowest sun angle of the year we're working with. We wouldn't need to read 650 posts about March sun. Or 10 posts about March sun and 640 posts joking about posts about March sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 34 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: This is ridiculousness! I think their being harsh but I noticed your not really predicting anything much different then most but it’s the tone. Instead of focusing on a he positives for the parts of the region that get snow you are focused more on the fail aspects. I get crap for that too sometimes. No one likes to hear depressing news. Even if they know it’s true. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Would be better if not for some stubborn warmth at the 850 level that pauses snowfall in most of central MD (particularly around I95) that brings down the totals quite a bit there. Hopefully, a pocket like that is something that can change. Though the Nam kinda had a similar pocket too. Though it is a meso at long range, so we'll see. Also didn't help the low was almost to the coast in NC and then jumped back slightly NW into Virginia. Models are having problems with low placement and it's messing up the snow/mix/rain lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS first flakes out this way at 15Z 48 snow for everyone. 850 just south of Woodbridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said: Or 10 posts about March sun and 640 posts joking about posts about March sun. Sun is already setting later. We are toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I’m feeling a semi-nuke coming... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: I think their being harsh but I noticed your not really predicting anything much different then most but it’s the tone. Instead of focusing on a he positives for the parts of the region that get snow you are focused more on the fail aspects. I get crap for that too sometimes. No one likes to hear depressing news. Even if they know it’s true. I appreciate anyone with knowledge and their opinions, especially a met. I think it's awesome they are on this board. I think the thing bothering most is that his educated opinions are presented as facts that are a 100% lock. If he just presented his opinions and showed why he thinks this or that will happen, it would come off differently. It's definitely the tone and way it is presented. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2mb stronger low at hr48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Its warmer this run for sure. Looks more like the NAM than the Euro. 57 LP over OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS is caving. It's warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Some ccb love for MD at 63. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: I’m feeling a semi-nuke coming... The blast from a nuclear weapon is definitely warm. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Since it seems to be the afternoon for apologies on this board, perhaps one needs to be made to the NAM...... 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 goodbye cruel weenie world, rain for all 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 They forgot to feed the “AmWX Mid Atlantic HH algorithm” into the models for this run. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It isn't even winter yet. Of course some will get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 DC does snag a couple of inches on the backend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, high risk said: Since it seems to be the afternoon for apologies on this board, perhaps one needs to be made to the NAM...... I’ll apologize Wednesday evening as needed and not before 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS is slightly warmer in the mid-levels otherwise there isn’t really a discernible difference from 12z. That being said, won’t do anything to reduce the tension in this thread lol. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2m temps are horrific, but looking back on it previous runs weren't that much better. 850 temps actually improved somehow. edit: to clarify, it's very slight. but NW DC/down to the Mall or so doesn't lose 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: DC does snag a couple of inches on the backend. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think their being harsh but I noticed your not really predicting anything much different then most but it’s the tone. Instead of focusing on a he positives for the parts of the region that get snow you are focused more on the fail aspects. I get crap for that too sometimes. No one likes to hear depressing news. Even if they know it’s true. I agree. Thanks for sharing this. I can see what you are saying for the eastern areas, though I am saying generous snow amounts just well north and west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Gfs has a stronger WAA onset than before with good dendritic growth. I’m right in the R/S line during the evening as depicted with an isothermal profile right at freezing below like 900mb. The snow side of that line cashes in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 With the evolution we see on the GFS, the 850's are actually somewhat cooler than 12z in spots. The 2m temps are just what is modeled so warm. That being said, the Euro and EPS are about 3-4 degrees colder for a couple of the time periods. Could the GFS be running a bit warm at the surface? Weird to see it having colder 850's than some models but torching the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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