Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

rgem looks like a hold.  maybe even slightly better than 12z.

Would be better if not for some stubborn warmth at the 850 level that pauses snowfall in most of central MD (particularly around I95) that brings down the totals quite a bit there. Hopefully, a pocket like that is something that can change. Though the Nam kinda had a similar pocket too. Though it is a meso at long range, so we'll see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Would be better if not for some stubborn warmth at the 850 level that pauses snowfall in most of central MD (particularly around I95) that brings down the totals quite a bit there. Hopefully, a pocket like that is something that can change. Though the Nam kinda had a similar pocket too. Though it is a meso at long range, so we'll see.

yea, looked a little better at the beginning for the cities.  it's a good thing we still have a day of modeling because all it's gonna take is a minor shift east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

This is ridiculousness! 

I think their being harsh but I noticed your not really predicting anything much different then most but it’s the tone. Instead of focusing on a he positives for the parts of the region that get snow you are focused more on the fail aspects. I get crap for that too sometimes. No one likes to hear depressing news. Even if they know it’s true. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Would be better if not for some stubborn warmth at the 850 level that pauses snowfall in most of central MD (particularly around I95) that brings down the totals quite a bit there. Hopefully, a pocket like that is something that can change. Though the Nam kinda had a similar pocket too. Though it is a meso at long range, so we'll see.

Also didn't help the low was almost to the coast in NC and then jumped back slightly NW into Virginia. Models are having problems with low placement and it's messing up the snow/mix/rain lines.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I think their being harsh but I noticed your not really predicting anything much different then most but it’s the tone. Instead of focusing on a he positives for the parts of the region that get snow you are focused more on the fail aspects. I get crap for that too sometimes. No one likes to hear depressing news. Even if they know it’s true. 

I appreciate anyone with knowledge and their opinions, especially a met. I think it's awesome they are on this board. I think the thing bothering most is that his educated opinions are presented as facts that are a 100% lock. If he just presented his opinions and showed why he thinks this or that will happen, it would come off differently. It's definitely the tone and way it is presented.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think their being harsh but I noticed your not really predicting anything much different then most but it’s the tone. Instead of focusing on a he positives for the parts of the region that get snow you are focused more on the fail aspects. I get crap for that too sometimes. No one likes to hear depressing news. Even if they know it’s true. 

I agree. Thanks for sharing this.  I can see what you are saying for the eastern areas, though I am saying generous snow amounts just well north and west. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With the evolution we see on the GFS, the 850's are actually somewhat cooler than 12z in spots. The 2m temps are just what is modeled so warm. That being said, the Euro and EPS are about 3-4 degrees colder for a couple of the time periods. Could the GFS be running a bit warm at the surface? Weird to see it having colder 850's than some models but torching the surface. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...