baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:55 PM, DDweatherman said: To further show the hefty dynamics at play, check out the h7 frontogen here @ 54 hrs. Expand If only it were a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:53 PM, mattie g said: Thanks for the rundown. We all fully expect that the NAM will verify at this range. Time to grab some rope... Expand Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:38 PM, T. August said: My IQ always changes after these maps, not sure if it’s a gain or loss. Expand What does the purple shading denote? Can't see the legend in that screenshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:53 PM, mattie g said: Thanks for the rundown. We all fully expect that the NAM will verify at this range. Time to grab some rope... Expand yup. was a nice run for a few days. pack it up weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:56 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 3km nam nest results aren't much nicer than the 12km nam. Expand That’s double what I thought for my house. Overperformer? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:57 PM, ers-wxman1 said: Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here. Expand What is the debate at hand? You're making statements about the 18z NAM in specific. Yes you received a snarky response, but you and I both know its on the edges of the model envelope and we're not going to take it verbatim. If it verifies it would be a big score relative to where the other Op's have things at the moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The only times I have found the nam useful at range is to confirm trends 1-2 runs after the Global’s spin them. Nam 48+ is not a great mode and pinning down main features like the Globals are. Now I have seen the nam not follow a trend for 2-3 runs in a row after globals suggested it. And nam has turned out to be right here and there last I remember was 2017 but can’t recall the event. Anyhow, nam has played its part perfectly. It’s confirming globals. Just as always, is one to two sets behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:57 PM, ers-wxman1 said: Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here. Expand not sure this is the appropriate response to that, but okay. we all appreciate your thoughts and insight. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:43 PM, wxtrix said: for the mets: I've been talking offline to Forky and he thinks the models aren’t responding properly to the CAD and that the storm is too far north overall. Expand What does spoons have to say? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:57 PM, WesternFringe said: What does the purple shading denote? Can't see the legend in that screenshot. Expand hell if I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:40 PM, lester said: This may be the worst forecast map I've ever seen Expand There’s a chance he knows more than you 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:38 PM, Mshaffer526 said: LOL Expand Poor Ji. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:57 PM, WesternFringe said: What does the purple shading denote? Can't see the legend in that screenshot. Expand Significant ice is what he's going for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:59 PM, Yeoman said: What does spoons have to say? Expand Get the fork outta here!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:57 PM, ers-wxman1 said: Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here. Expand Again we all appreciate your excellent thoughts but to use the NAM as gospel 48 hours out isn't the best idea. Please keep posting and ignore the background noise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Interesting hr 53 & 54 sounding where the mix line runs right along 95. Attached is the sounding for Baltimore. Small warm nose at the 850/900 level, not terribly difficult to overcome. By 54, Baltimore folks could likely be isothermal with good rates and stack up a few inches in the ensuing frames. PS This is if we want to analyze the 3k at face value. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:57 PM, ers-wxman1 said: Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here. Expand That's what happens when you put weenies through a winter like last year's... very hard for some to stay disciplined and accept expert analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Really wont be able to grasp the effect of the high unti about 3-6 hours pre event then during onset to completion it’s in situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3k NAM has 2.34" of liquid here. All snow. And still snowing at h60. So, I for one do not characterize this run as a disaster. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 9:01 PM, wxtrix said: you must be a noob. Expand Not really. Actually been around here for awhile. Never heard his name mentioned. On another note, I had no idea cranky was done tweeting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 9:05 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Take your ball and go home? I held back on posting this but I distinctly remember the progression here. You once went big on a storm and busted. Ever since you have poor mouthed every chance that we’ve had. And have busted low in nearly every one of those. Now you’re mad because people don’t like it. People might not like me posting this but it’s the truth. You obviously know more than most. You’re a pro after all. Maybe just give us what you see and why. Lose the absolute certainty of it all. You need to question why you’re getting the responses that you’re getting. Expand This is ridiculousness! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 9:05 PM, baltosquid said: That's what happens when you put weenies through a winter like last year's... very hard for some to stay disciplined and accept expert analysis. Expand to be fair, the nam at long range shouldn't be expertly analyzed anyways. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 8:57 PM, ers-wxman1 said: Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here. Expand Just for your information JI is a real meteorologist. In fact if you put a gun to my head and asked who is better him or Wes i may have to go with JI. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 9:06 PM, osfan24 said: Not really. Actually been around here for awhile. Never heard his name mentioned. On another note, I had no idea cranky was done tweeting. Expand forky is a red tagger from NY. very well known on the forums for those who go back a long ways. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 9:08 PM, mappy said: forky is a red tagger from NY. very well known on the forums for those who go back a long ways. Expand Well known for sure. Just not in the way most want to be known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 9:07 PM, mappy said: to be fair, the nam at long range shouldn't be expertly analyzed anyways. Expand Oh I don't think you actually said anything to really gripe about but I do think overall there's a lot of grumbling from many after last winter's disaster; more what I'm getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 9:06 PM, osfan24 said: Not really. Actually been around here for awhile. Never heard his name mentioned. On another note, I had no idea cranky was done tweeting. Expand Cranky was such a great follow on Twitter. Could make any boring day interesting meteorologically. You ever hear why he’s stopped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 9:09 PM, ravensrule said: Well known for sure. Just not in the way most want to be known. Expand he does seem to know his meteorology at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 9:05 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: On 12/14/2020 at 9:04 PM, ravensrule said: Again we all appreciate your excellent thoughts but to use the NAM as gospel 48 hours out isn't the best idea. Please keep posting and ignore the background noise. Expand It’s not gospel, it’s indicative of the evolution of the pattern. The model is not worthless beyond 48 hours. I happen to work with the hard working employees that spend millions to make these models run year round, that dedicate their lives to making NWP better and people just trash them like it’s a wind up toy. Expand 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 9:11 PM, mappy said: he does seem to know his meteorology at least. Expand Lol. There is no arguing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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