lester Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: DT Map This may be the worst forecast map I've ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: LOL Something is off with wxbell's 18z NAM maps. It messed up the total precip too. I can guarantee that 1.2" of QPF isn't an inch of snow here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Something is off with wxbell's 18z NAM maps. It messed up the total precip too. I can guarantee that 1.2" of QPF isn't an inch of snow here. Perhaps just the NAM making fun of itself? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: LOL Now that’s more like it for this region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Hi yes reason number 47 as to why the 3knam might not be in it's wheelhouse range yet Although it does depict the DC snowhole quite well :p 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Something is off with wxbell's 18z NAM maps. It messed up the total precip too. I can guarantee that 1.2" of QPF isn't an inch of snow here. Absolutely agree. The TT maps have 12-18 from 795 in Baltimore N & W out to the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 For those of us who need a reminder... 5 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3k nam has the primary low traveling west of norfolk NE-ward across the bay into the southern eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Now that’s more like it for this region maybe it knew cantore was coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3K looks fine. Juicy as hell. Which is what I wanted to see: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, ravensrule said: That was way before my entrance to any weather boards. @stormtracker or @Ji should know all that history well. There was TWC or Accu weather then Wright then Eastern then Anerican somewhere around 2004 about 6 of us met at Inner Harbour in Baltimore and discussed creating a weather board with conferences and it came true i don’t have all of this right but mostly so Randy, Marcus,me,I think Matt and maybe Ian and 1-2 more were there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Euro like juicy It's evolution isn't bad, it just decides to take the LPC of course too far N/W. The 12k did shift it about 50 or so miles SE from the 12z run which was a few SE of the 6z so there is progress there. The best takeaway is the dynamics/rates that it shows if we do get in good bands. This would be money for our neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18z NAM is a disaster for the central and eastern sections. Decent front end thump then quickly over to sleet then heavy rain in all but favored locations...81/15/68/north of 70. Plain rain all the way past IAD this run. Wraparound snow changeover with CAA as the low goes east. CAD wedge is thin and marginal, quick retreat with WAA. Those near the M/D line into southern PA to I-81 will love this run. 12-18+ for those areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: 18z NAM is a disaster. Decent front end thump then quickly over to sleet then heavy rain in all but favored locations...81/15/68/north of 70. Plain rain all the way past IAD this run. Wraparound snow changeover with CAA as the low goes east. CAD wedge is thin and marginal, quick retreat with WAA. Those near the M/D line into southern PA to I-81 will love this run. 12-18+ for those areas. Thanks for the rundown. We all fully expect that the NAM will verify at this range. Time to grab some rope... 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: LOL 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro like juicy To further show the hefty dynamics at play, check out the h7 frontogen here @ 54 hrs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: For those of us who need a reminder... Why y'all gotta shade @Ralph Wiggum like that?? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3km nam nest results aren't much nicer than the 12km nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, wxtrix said: for the mets: I've been talking offline to Forky and he thinks the models aren’t responding properly to the CAD and that the storm is too far north overall. Who is Forky? Did you talk to Woody, too? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, DDweatherman said: To further show the hefty dynamics at play, check out the h7 frontogen here @ 54 hrs. If only it were a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Thanks for the rundown. We all fully expect that the NAM will verify at this range. Time to grab some rope... Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, T. August said: My IQ always changes after these maps, not sure if it’s a gain or loss. What does the purple shading denote? Can't see the legend in that screenshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: Thanks for the rundown. We all fully expect that the NAM will verify at this range. Time to grab some rope... yup. was a nice run for a few days. pack it up weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 3km nam nest results aren't much nicer than the 12km nam. That’s double what I thought for my house. Overperformer? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here. What is the debate at hand? You're making statements about the 18z NAM in specific. Yes you received a snarky response, but you and I both know its on the edges of the model envelope and we're not going to take it verbatim. If it verifies it would be a big score relative to where the other Op's have things at the moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The only times I have found the nam useful at range is to confirm trends 1-2 runs after the Global’s spin them. Nam 48+ is not a great mode and pinning down main features like the Globals are. Now I have seen the nam not follow a trend for 2-3 runs in a row after globals suggested it. And nam has turned out to be right here and there last I remember was 2017 but can’t recall the event. Anyhow, nam has played its part perfectly. It’s confirming globals. Just as always, is one to two sets behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Ok I’ve had just about enough posting in this place. No wonder you can’t retain any real meteorologists here. not sure this is the appropriate response to that, but okay. we all appreciate your thoughts and insight. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, wxtrix said: for the mets: I've been talking offline to Forky and he thinks the models aren’t responding properly to the CAD and that the storm is too far north overall. What does spoons have to say? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: What does the purple shading denote? Can't see the legend in that screenshot. hell if I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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