ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Sometimes I just have a hunch. Can’t explain it. That's fine and you will most likely be correct, but why not just write that it's a hunch then?. Either way it's great to have you back and posting. Hopefully we will be seeing a lot of you this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: A majority of of us have been completely starved of snow the last couple years. Analysis is fine and all, but when you've been fighting for scraps for 1000 days, you start thinking that a steaming pile of sh*t looks appetizing. Besides, most of us don't really know all that much about the science behind it - we're just fans of fun weather. I feel you 100%. I want the snow too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Emmitsburg is a very nice little town, which I've always passed on my way to ski Liberty, which is right on the other side of the border. The surrounding landscape will certainly give it a very wintry feel. Back in the day, Liberty was known as Charnita, if I recall correctly. But I drank more at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Can i ask you a stupid question?. I obviously am aware that you know 2,000 times the amount of me about meteorology but how can you be a thousand percent sure that the models won't shift SE in the next 24 hours?. You came off as if this is written in stone. If you have followed this forum, this is not out of character 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I just booked a hotel in Emmitsburg, MD - just south of Gettysburg. That is a decent spot, I am hoping. I know a good bit about the area. Let me know if you have any questions. It’s a great spot for this one. Couple of good places to grab a bite nearby as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: Nice. I'll bring my own sleeping blanket. But if your ladyfriend will be staying over then I want no part of it. I'm heading to Sykesville for this one but the balcony offer still stands lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I just booked a hotel in Emmitsburg, MD - just south of Gettysburg. That is a decent spot, I am hoping. I grew up around that area. If you're adventurous, head up to Blue Ridge Summit, PA or Cascade, MD. Solid elevation and roads will be... interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I think he moved up off 522 NW of town somewhere. I’m sure he appreciated the geography lesson all the same 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: That's fine and you will most likely be correct, but why not just write that it's a hunch then?. Either way it's great to have you back and posting. Hopefully we will be seeing a lot of you this winter. thanks for saying what i was thinking. hunches are fine and all, but def dont poo-poo things if its just a hunch and expect everyone to accept it. lol everyone bout lost their damn minds in here earlier 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, ravensrule said: That's fine and you will most likely be correct, but why not just write that it's a hunch then?. Either way it's great to have you back and posting. Hopefully we will be seeing a lot of you this winter. Had password issues and couldn’t get back in the system. Got it worked out. The biggest factor for me is the 500mb pattern. It’s vigorous but it’s progressive, not cutoff, and not much phasing at our latitude. That won’t drive the cold air in, high retreats so source is gone. My hunch/guess on that is we don’t score like we want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Oooooo, fantastic, Thanks for the heads up. Right down the road from Ski Liberty too if you feel like being one of the first to hit the fresh snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: If you have followed this forum, this is not out of character I absolutely have since the beginning and i am well aware of it. That's why i was asking him. Either way i appreciate his insight, i just wish it would be said with less certainty. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I would need hourly output to see how long the mix period is. But seems like we’d probably get a few inches on the front? Then lots of sleet, then a couple inches at the end. Sign me up. Stuck in a meeting, but the big win from the euro run is that the changeover in my neck of the woods is ~3pm and after 0.3”+ of qpf. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm heading to Sykesville for this one but the balcony offer still stands lol If your house is gonna be empty it's tempting to make you an informal AirBNB offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On the 12z Euro, as the low pulls away it flips even the US 50 corridor down to about St. Mary's City back to a period of accumulating snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Had password issues and couldn’t get back in the system. Got it worked out. The biggest factor for me is the 500mb pattern. It’s vigorous but it’s progressive, not cutoff, and not much phasing at our latitude. That won’t drive the cold air in, high retreats so source is gone. My hunch/guess on that is we don’t score like we want to. Thank you for explaining it to me like the weenie that i am. I pray that you are wrong but know that you are probably right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, mappy said: thanks for saying what i was thinking. hunches are fine and all, but def dont poo-poo things if its just a hunch and expect everyone to accept it. lol everyone bout lost their damn minds in here earlier My fault. my 6:30 old man yells at cloud match blew up the powder keg. Euro looks good for many. hope it holds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: On the 12z Euro, as the low pulls away it flips even the US 50 corridor down to about St. Mary's City back to a period of accumulating snow. Still has about a quarter inch of QPF left in the tank as well when that occurs. It’s never great to depend on back end snowfall though, especially with a storm that is riding through a fairly progressive 500 mb pattern. It’s 2020 though, anything can happen in this crazy year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, H2O said: My fault. my 6:30 old man yells at cloud match blew up the powder keg. Euro looks good for many. hope it holds stop. you're fine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 42 minutes ago, Yeoman said: @stormtracker ? Almost went there, but I'm an admin. Have to set the fucking standard around here for good language and good behavior. 1 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zde4 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Euro nails Dover, PA. Looks like I’ll be making that road trip back home for the weekend! I’d wager 15-20 is a safe bet at this point based on almost all guidance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Stuck in a meeting, but the big win from the euro run is that the changeover in my neck of the woods is ~3pm and after 0.3”+ of qpf. Thanks for that tidbit, that’s excellent news. Solid advisory criteria even before the flip, even for the beltway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Euro actually keeps some flurries falling through most of Thursday as well. I am getting psyched now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 EPS is much colder than last run. 12z 06z 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Almost went there, but I'm an admin. Have to set the fucking standard around here for good language and good behavior. Come on. You used to be so much naughtier. In your old age you have become so proper. Let it fly like the old days sometimes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Ok city folks. Our goal is 2 to 4. Just shift your expectations and things will be a lot better going forward. Accept your climo and reality. We are going to see snow in the air and we're tracking something in December. Lemonade lemons etc etc. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I dunno what the meltdown was about the navgem track looks perfect!!! 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 23 minutes ago, wxtrix said: 15 miles? not from Stephens City. I'm nw frederick County now. Past lake holiday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 25 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I just booked a hotel in Emmitsburg, MD - just south of Gettysburg. That is a decent spot, I am hoping. You will be about 20 miles to my North up 15. I suggest getting a decent amount of food, not a lot up there and getting down into Frederick might be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I dunno what the meltdown was about the navgem track looks perfect!!! Thanks but I’ll wait for the DGEX 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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