NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:22 PM, WxUSAF said: I would need hourly output to see how long the mix period is. But seems like we’d probably get a few inches on the front? Then lots of sleet, then a couple inches at the end. Sign me up. Expand Baltimore barely loses 850s, FWIW. Verbatim I think it hangs on by a thread. D.C. is at risk of losing them ~6 hours during the best precip, which isn't ideal, but its much closer this run. I'd take my 350" of elevation and pray. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It is impossible to know if you are getting 3, 6, 9 hours etc of mix v snow 48 hours out. I am ecstatic that the DC NW crowd is in the game to get anything before Christmas. Most years we do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:28 PM, ers-wxman1 said: Same features at play, low track near the Bay, retreating High with marginal cold air eroding with strong e-se flow aloft off a 50F Atlantic into temps in the mid 30s? Not a screamer for a winter storm in my opinion. No way we see 10:1 ratios in the immediate suburbs. Shave euro numbers in half and that would be closer to reality. Expand That would still give me between 7-8". It would be by far my biggest storm in 4 years. I don't understand all the negativity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:29 PM, eyewall said: Yes and probably would park myself at motel. Expand Wow. You are dedicated. I hope you get a huge storm wherever you decide to end up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:32 PM, ravensrule said: Wow. You are dedicated. I hope you get a huge storm wherever you decide to end up. Expand After living in VT for a few years I need my fix LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:31 PM, ravensrule said: That would still give me between 7-8". It would be by far my biggest storm in 4 years. I don't understand all the negativity. Expand Ha same thought. 3” of snow, 1” of sleet, and 2-3” of snow on top? All in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 4:54 PM, arlwx said: As a warminista near DCA, fit me into the "just where I want it" bingo square. Expand Keep us posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:31 PM, ravensrule said: That would still give me between 7-8". It would be by far my biggest storm in 4 years. I don't understand all the negativity. Expand It’s not negativity it’s an analysis. I know I haven’t posted in here much in the past year, but there used to be some good analysis and debates, now it just seems like a wish cast for snow and trying to hug all the models that give the most snow vs not relying so much on the guidance and more toward the actual synoptic features in play. What happened to all the key posters in here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:29 PM, eyewall said: Yes and probably would park myself at motel. Expand I think Hagerstown is probably the safest bet for you. If you go too much into the mountains you might not get out for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:33 PM, eyewall said: After living in VT for a few years I need my fix LOL. Expand Good to see you on here. I use to creep all the time in the Northern NE Winter thread. Always enjoyed reading your stuff. My avatar pic is side-country at Stowe. Sad that I'm not allowed to up to VT this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:35 PM, PivotPoint said: Good to see you on here. I use to creep all the time in the Northern NE Winter thread. Always enjoyed reading your stuff. My avatar pic is side-country at Stowe. Sad that I'm not allowed to up to VT this year. Expand Yeah I am not either. My record single snowfall occurred up there of 30 inches in the Pi Day storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:35 PM, ers-wxman1 said: It’s not negativity it’s an analysis. I know I haven’t posted in here much in the past year, but there used to be some good analysis and debates, now it just seems like a wish cast for snow and trying to hug all the models that give the most snow vs not relying so much on the guidance and more toward the actual synoptic features in play. What happened to all the key posters in here? Expand I think RR meant everyone else was being negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:36 PM, wxtrix said: i got 32” in 2016 without any deformation banding. you just need rates. Expand Negative. The whole storm was a deform band at one point lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 anyone have a sounding up my way from the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:27 PM, eyewall said: I am deciding between targeting Hagerstown or Hancock in MD perhaps. Chambersburg, PA would be backup if I had to go that far north. Expand I just booked a hotel in Emmitsburg, MD - just south of Gettysburg. That is a decent spot, I am hoping. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:33 PM, WxUSAF said: Ha same thought. 3” of snow, 1” of sleet, and 2-3” of snow on top? All in. Expand Very classic storm for this region. The kind of storm our grandpappies enjoyed a few times every winter but have seemingly gone extinct lately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:28 PM, mappy said: sweet thanks! Expand Yea you're looking [conservatively] at 7" - 10" on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Euro looked great to me. DT first guess map coming at 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:36 PM, wxtrix said: i got 32” in 2016 without any deformation banding. you just need rates. Expand Duration of that was much longer though. But yeah, rates do help! You are gonna get clobbered! Enjoy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:38 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Yea you're looking [conservatively] at 7" - 10" on the Euro. Expand nice, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:38 PM, North Balti Zen said: I just booked a hotel in Emmitsburg, MD - just south of Gettysburg. That is a decent spot, I am hoping. Expand Should be a great location for you. About 10 min. North of Thurmont. Beautiful area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:39 PM, wxtrix said: 15 miles? not from Stephens City. Expand he moved but didn't update his location. hes in MD now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:35 PM, ers-wxman1 said: It’s not negativity it’s an analysis. I know I haven’t posted in here much in the past year, but there used to be some good analysis and debates, now it just seems like a wish cast for snow and trying to hug all the models that give the most snow vs not relying so much on the guidance and more toward the actual synoptic features in play. What happened to all the key posters in here? Expand Can i ask you a stupid question?. I obviously am aware that you know 2,000 times the amount of me about meteorology but how can you be a thousand percent sure that the models won't shift SE in the next 24 hours?. You came off as if this is written in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:21 PM, leesburg 04 said: Pretty funny right, I mean in what year would a Euro like that come out 48 hours before an event and people wouldn't be good with it? Feels like one of those cut the totals in half kind of storms though because of it saying how much snow was falling today in spots that got none but still a solid start to winter if it's true Expand I'm not and wouldn't be good with it, but then again I don't live 35 miles northwest of the cities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Temps definitely more favorable in Baltimore. Just shift the storm a dozen miles SE, and/or have a similar temperature improvement in the next update, please. Won't take much to make me feel a lot more confident in at least getting the grass covered. Wonder what the EPS will do in terms of clustering the lows on the members for 12z. Either way, let's see if 18z and 00z will help us out and then dive into meso mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:39 PM, wxtrix said: 15 miles? not from Stephens City. Expand I think he moved up off 522 NW of town somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12z euro using kuchera is about a foot in Baltimore proper. Drops off steeply south of there. Woof. Gonna be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Not a wishcast but just a realistic question that I hope I won't get berated for...Is it a typical track for a storm to shoot from ILM to the mouth of the bay or would a storm seek out the baroclinic zone just offshore? I don't have the memory that most do on here with storms but it seems like an odd track to shoot up the bay then east. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:38 PM, North Balti Zen said: I just booked a hotel in Emmitsburg, MD - just south of Gettysburg. That is a decent spot, I am hoping. Expand Definitely a solid spot. Our son goes to mt saint marys and lives off campus in Thurmont. Looks like a foot is almost a sure bet up there. Looking similar here in Union bridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 6:38 PM, North Balti Zen said: I just booked a hotel in Emmitsburg, MD - just south of Gettysburg. That is a decent spot, I am hoping. Expand Emmitsburg is a very nice little town, which I've always passed on my way to ski Liberty, which is right on the other side of the border. The surrounding landscape will certainly give it a very wintry feel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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